Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Balaji: Rate hikes will cause systemic failure across the US banking sector
“Powell is crashing the plane, and SVB and FRC and others were just positioned near the front of the plane. Okay. So like everybody's gonna die is my point.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: US federal loyalists will switch allegiance to China during financial collapse
“And so one thing I don't think people are taking into account is that a lot of people who are you know, Currently very for the federal government. If it has serious financial difficulty, we'll simply fold into the new Chinese overlords.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Balaji: Gold Seizure-Style Executive Order Will Be Attempted in US
“What I do think is I think that there is probably enough strength among grays and reds to prevent a complete repeat of executive order. Six one Oh two. I think it's going to be attempted.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: The 2023 banking crisis will not return to normal like 2008
“Because ultimately, 2008 was, quote, just a recession, and I think things came back to normal in a sense afterwards. I don't think things are going to come back to normal after this one. I think this is the big one.”
Assertion Supported
Balaji: Silicon Valley Bank collapsed because it bought U.S. Treasuries
“Neither of those things are what blew up the bank. What blew up the bank is that they bought treasuries.”
Insight
Balaji: Widespread bank failures are the central bank's fault, not the banks'
“When it's all the banks that are dying, that's a central bank problem. Right. It's like all your passengers are being thrown around and turned into paste on the walls of the plane. That's the pilot's fault. That's not the passenger's fault for not fasting thei…”
Opinion
Balaji: US Treasuries are the toxic waste of this financial cycle
“Basically, the toxic waste of this cycle is treasuries, okay?”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Balaji predicts a 'digital lockdown' featuring capital controls and crypto bans
“So, so what I think is coming in a phrase is is digital lockdown. Okay. Digital lockdown encapsulates essentially obviously bans on short selling, attempted bans on crypto, capital controls, probably wage controls, price controls, anti hoarding laws. They may …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji predicts US will divide into Bitcoin states and dollar states
“And I actually think this becomes a very important dividing line and political issue where it's essentially the Bitcoin states where you know, people are allowed to hold Bitcoin in private hands and the dollar states where they're not. Basically meaning you li…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivasan: US ideological separation portends event like India's partition
“Cognitive separation has happened. Social separation has happened. We're still physically proximal. And what that portends in my view is something similar to do you know what partition was in India?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Balaji: 2023 bank runs were caused by Fed policies, not social media
“The bank runs started before anybody tweeted, right? And the reason that they happened is because the Fed fundamentally undermined these portfolios.”
Insight
Balaji Srinivasan: Launching currencies is much easier than scaling factories
“It's, I've done both, and it's much easier to launch currencies than to scale factories. And once you have that in mind, it's way easier for China or any other country, frankly, that has natural resources or manufacturing or both to launch a currency than it i…”
Opinion
Balaji: The window to turn around the US federal government has passed
“So my premise is basically A, that unfortunately the, I think we've passed the window for the turnaround at the federal level.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: US will inflate away debt or suspend convertibility instead of defaulting
“Well, basically what'll happen in my view is they will they won't, they may not default on it long-term in the sense of pay cash, but they'll inflate it away to such a point. Or make it illiquid or suspend convertibility.”
Insight
Balaji: Edge-case harm is exaggerated to control 99% of users
“Even from a pure utilitarian standpoint, I think that edge case harm is often exaggerated to you know, to basically control 99% of people.”
Insight
Balaji: Banks cannot hedge when the Fed hikes rates to 5% in a year
“You can hedge if it's like a one percent, you know, if you expect a one percent interest rate and it turns out to be 1.2% or something like that. Fine. You can hedge that. That's when the normal envelope, if you are told and everybody's told that it's going to…”
Insight
Balaji: Tech is unwinding centuries of state centralization in decades
“And now that you have the transistor and the personal computer and the internet and the smartphone and cryptocurrency, decentralizing technology is unwinding the last several hundred years of centralization in a few decades.”
Opinion
Srinivasan: Washington is world's least rational government on crypto
“DC Is the least rational government organization in the world on this.”
Opinion
Srinivasan: The US is a divided, bi-national entity like Sunni vs. Shiite
“The way to think about it is it's not a single country anymore. It's Sunni versus Shiite. Right? It's a bi-national thing.”
Assertion Supported
Balaji: China is flexing new diplomatic muscle via Saudi-Iran deal
“What they have flexed over the last couple of months is the new diplomatic muscle. Right. They've managed to get France and Brazil and a bunch of neutral countries, formerly neutral countries. They have peace between Saudi and Iran.”
Disclosure
Balaji Srinivasan prefers holding Bitcoin and foreign fiat over US dollars
“TLDR is, at least I personally prefer to hold Bitcoin and stable foreign fiat over USD.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivasan: The 2020s will be startup cities and 2030s network states
“The 2000 about tech companies. The 20 tens, crypto protocols between 20 startup cities, the 20 thirties network states, right?”
Opinion
Balaji: Society must transition from 51% democracy to 100% consent
“I basically believe that we need to increase the amount of consent in society to go from where we currently are, which I would consider a 51% democracy to a hundred percent democracy.”
Insight
Balaji: Technologists Seek a New Government, Not More or Less
“The Democrat wants more government, the Republican wants less government, the Libertarian wants no government, and the technological progressive technologist wants a new government. That's to say a new state, right?”
Balaji Srinivasan