why aren't all 3,031 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 63 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
Vought: The Trump administration will use impoundment to withhold appropriated funds
“We've got a lot of executive tools up to using impoundment that we intend to use And are looking for opportunities to do so.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: Universities and employers hire African immigrants over African Americans
“Both the universities and the corporate employers are literally, this is true. They're literally, they literally import Africans so that they don't have to hire African Americans. Because they still count as black.”
Assertion Supported
Thiel: Lawsuit discovery proved the Army covered up reports favoring Palantir
“And then when you and then what you can do when you sue somebody is you get discovery and you discover, and you sort of discover what's going on in the sausage making factory that no one's investigated for 22 years. And there's a lot of stuff and we're sort of…”
Assertion Supported
Fryer: Police Study Found Racial Bias in Non-Lethal Force, None in Shootings
“And what we found was that on the lower level uses of force, there are racial differences that we couldn't explain. And we put them through formal bias test, and there is bias that goes on in the lower level uses of force. What we didn't find was any, that tha…”
Opinion
Ro Khanna: Twitter and Facebook Erred in Suppressing Hunter Biden Story
“In fact, you know, in the book I write about how I thought it was a mistake for Twitter to take down some of this stuff about Hunter Biden or Facebook to do that. And I think that story was total hogwash. I think Joe Biden was unfairly attacked because of his …”
Disclosure
Mandia's startup is building an offensive nation-state hyper-attack platform
“We want to build the whole hyper attack platform. Everything a nation state would build on offense. We want to build.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
AI-native developers are over 100x more productive than traditional engineers
“It's not 10 X. It's more than a hundred X productivity with an AI native developer working on software. We've had over a hundred commits in a day building our software. We have a different demo every two to three days. I never had that before.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ross: Zero full-time engineers at Coverage write code manually anymore
“Not a single one of our full-time engineers right now writes code anymore. They do everything through Codex, Cloud Code, or Cursor.”
Opinion
Black: Donald Trump is the most financially astute US president ever
“President Trump is so fantastic is he is the most financially astute president we've ever had, and he's really focused on how economics makes the world go round and what it means for not just the exercise of American power, but building out the next century to…”
Disclosure
Loeffler: SBA Cut Headcount by 53% and Canceled $3B in Contracts
“I've cut my own agency's headcount by 53%. That's about three hundred million a year just in salary and expense. We've cut three billion dollars of contract, needless contracts out of their”
Disclosure
Atkins: SEC Will Allow IPOs with Mandatory Arbitration Bylaws
“So, and so what we're doing is so I made it explicit that the commission will not turn away and the staff will not turn away those sorts of would be IPOs if they have a bylaw With either of those two provisions.”
Disclosure
Atkins: SEC to clarify meme coins and stablecoins are not securities
“That's our goal is to come out with rules that differentiate between what's the stock,
Security, and what is a commodity where the CFTC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, can oversee.
So meme coins and all that, and stable coins, those are not
for the…”
Opinion
Howard: Most Environmental Groups Have Become Insidious Forces
“And I mean, not all environmental groups, but most of them are really have become insidious forces and In our society.”
Assertion Supported
Liemandt: Alpha 3rd and 4th Graders Outscore 50% of US High School Grads
“We have third and fourth graders who outscore 50% of the high school graduates in this country.”
Opinion
Lonsdale: The Comanche were like a '10X Nazi death cult'
“I like doing a joke land acknowledgement that thank goodness that, you know, we took this place over from the Comanche Indians that were like a 10, 10 X Nazi death cult of murderers and rapists, and people don't realize that.”
Opinion
Schmitt: Biden's censorship enterprise is the greatest First Amendment affront
“And a censorship enterprise that they created that was so vast. It's the biggest affront to the first event we've ever seen.”
Opinion
Hoffman: Israel Is Not Committing Genocide in Palestine
“I gone and argued against a lot of kind of lefties who are like saying, look, the only, like, for example, they say, you know, Israel is committing genocide against Palestine. You're like, no, it's not. Genocide is something different. You could say there's ci…”
Disclosure
Vought classifies 90% of OMB staff as at-will employees to enact reforms
“The reform to make it so that if you are a career individual that's engaged on policy matters, and I, I've classified my organization OMB as 90% of the people at OMB are engaged in policy matters on behalf of the president, being in a situation where you are e…”
Opinion
Vought Calls State Medicaid Provider Taxes a Money Laundering Scam
“There's substantial reforms to Medicaid that protect the program, but also allow us to get illegals off the program to deal with what is essentially a money laundering scam where a state will have Almost a fake tax on a healthcare provider, use that to cause t…”
Insight
Andreessen: Western cities form top-plus-bottom political coalitions, ejecting the middle class
“What happens is from a political standpoint is the cities that are run right there in, in, in, in their local democracies, it's these super high end kind of, you know, very progressive elites. And then it's sort of the clientele underclass. Right. That you kno…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2035
Andreessen: General-purpose robotics will scale massively over the next decade
“These human robots, like the general purpose robotics thing is going to happen, and it's going to happen in the next decade, and it's going to happen at giant scale, and I think there's a plausible argument, which Elon also believes, that robotics is going to …”
Opinion
Rubin: Tucker Carlson goes out of his way to promote antisemitic narratives
“Like, he's bringing on people always to kind of further, yeah, it's the Jews. Like, it's just one thing after another. He goes out of his way to do it.”
Opinion
Thiel: Left-Wing Philanthropy Is Often Cover for Criminal Activities
“So much of this left wing philanthropy nonprofit world, I think was, you know, it was just a cover for, you know, borderline criminal activities.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lonsdale: Claudine Gay targeted Roland Fryer over police violence research
“And of course, Clyde and Gay, who at the time wasn't even president yet, but she was like a big internal African-American woman activists at Harvard. She went after him and she found a former student who, and she got the former student from like 10 years ago t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Liautaud: 100% of Political Attacks Originated From Democratic-Aligned Groups
“I learned that every attack and every, every single one came from democratic supported parties, different, different, different, different groups. But it was a hundred percent. Liberal and Democrat people, Soros type stuff.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ross: Los Angeles School Superintendent Abolished High School Math
“Milken Institute sent me an interview they had done with the head of the school system in Los Angeles, and the reason they did an interview with them is he had abolished, prohibited the teaching of mathematics in high school.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Xi Jinping's primary window to invade Taiwan is 2028 to 2032
“And if he wants it to be accomplished on his own watch, I think that's going to be the window in his mind, at least 28 through 32. And beyond that, I think, you know, I don't think he's penciled the date certain in the calendar. It's going to be conditions dep…”
Opinion
Lonsdale: UCLA Medical School Is Graduating Incompetent Doctors Due to Ideology
“So UCLA recently, we saw that school's really been taken over by ideologues, and they're graduating a lot of people who are not competent doctors. They're bringing the wrong people in.”
Opinion
Winston: Practicing law should require zero mandatory licensing or credentials
“The legal profession can be free to provide credentialing all they want, but my sense is, you don't, you shouldn't have to have anything to be a lawyer. Compete on your own”
Opinion
Lonsdale: Reform Jewish Synagogues Function as Arms of Democratic Party
“And there's a, the majority of Jews now are reformed Jews, and the reformed Jewish synagogues have been conquered. They're basically more arms of the Democratic Party on the left than they are places of worship.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lonsdale: Majority of Young Adults Dislike Jews for Their Success
“And now in 19 to 25 year olds, majority of them don't like Jews because we're successful.”
Assertion Contradicted
Verdon: Centralized bioweapon defense research accidentally created a damaging virus
“There was centralized research on Bio, you know, bioweapon defense. Right. And we were worried about a potential virus that could do a lot of damage. And then it was actually accidentally created through that research.”
Assertion Supported
Gallagher: Illegal Reedley biolab held Ebola, HIV, and tuberculosis samples
“Eventually it was discovered that these vials contained Ebola HIV, tuberculosis. There was a freezer labeled Ebola. It was like these silver Ziplocs inside and the CDC wouldn't test it, which is crazy.”
Opinion
Gallagher: The Lancet covered up COVID origins, aiding the CCP
“You've had basic, you know, So-called scientific journals, peer-reviewed scientific journals like Lancet completely beclown themselves during the pandemic and continue to beclown themselves in large part by covering up for the origins of COVID and thereby witt…”
Opinion
Lonsdale: Fauci effectively bribed researchers to reject lab-made virus theory
“As far as I could tell, people saw that this was a lab-made virus, they spoke out about it, Fauci gave them a call, they changed their mind in public, then they got a big grant. Like, it's very clear this guy was bribing, as far as I could tell, these research…”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Balaji: Rate hikes will cause systemic failure across the US banking sector
“Powell is crashing the plane, and SVB and FRC and others were just positioned near the front of the plane. Okay. So like everybody's gonna die is my point.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: US federal loyalists will switch allegiance to China during financial collapse
“And so one thing I don't think people are taking into account is that a lot of people who are you know, Currently very for the federal government. If it has serious financial difficulty, we'll simply fold into the new Chinese overlords.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Balaji: Gold Seizure-Style Executive Order Will Be Attempted in US
“What I do think is I think that there is probably enough strength among grays and reds to prevent a complete repeat of executive order. Six one Oh two. I think it's going to be attempted.”
Opinion
Pompeo: Federal government unions should be eliminated and workers made at-will
“There should be no government unions. It's just not, it's a non sequitur. They should have rules there where they work at will, just like every other employee, they should be terminable.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mack hung up on Geithner, Bernanke, and Paulson over $2 buyout demand
“I go over and pick up the phone, and he said, I'm on here with Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson. You know, we want you to sell your firm. And I said, well, you know, out of respect for you, I called Jamie Dimon, and he'd only pay me two dollars a share. And Guy A…”
Opinion
Aboyeji: The American liberal system emasculates Black men
“Look, I'm gonna be honest, and maybe it's a little bit of a controversial point of view, but it's the emasculation of black men. That is just a fact, right? It is a big topic. It is something that, that we talk about. Black men simply have not been empowered b…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lonsdale: Brands get 10x better sales using fit models over obese models
“One of the funny things, which I probably shouldn't say, but I will, is that we have consumer stuff we do sometimes, and a lot of the consumer companies I see around are starting to put, like, very obese people as their models, and I asked our partners who kno…”
Opinion
Lonsdale: China deliberately let COVID spread internationally to share economic harm
“China, China clearly Knew this and covered it up and made sure it spread internationally because otherwise it would have hurt them more than everyone else.”
Opinion
Lonsdale: Male Leaders Do Not Need Same Paternity Leave as Women
“Men don't need to heal the same way women do. They don't always need as much time as women off. A great woman leader is just as important to get back to work, but she may need to heal. The man doesn't need to heal. He shouldn't be pretending he needs the same …”
Opinion
Ferguson: US Education System Is Captured by Ideology Hostile to Science
“All of that's become much harder, because our educational system has been captured, now almost from the very bottom, from kindergarten to grad school, by an ideology which is profoundly hostile to the scientific method, and increasingly regards science itself …”
Opinion
Jaswa: Race-Conscious UC Admissions Policy Feels Strictly Anti-Asian
“I mean, to me, it just feels, you know, strictly anti-Asian, actually.”
Opinion
Kutcher warns China could use TikTok to undermine US naval support.
“If I'm China and I want to create a problem in in in that area of the world specifically a Naval problem in that area of the world. I, in the South China sea, I would probably want to utilize TikTok in order to influence the minds of Americans in a anti-US pro…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lonsdale: Robots will be able to perform any task within two years
“In the next couple years, robots are going to be able to do everything.”