Prediction Not checkable as stated
Miller: Rising US debt will eventually trigger money printing and inflation
“So what's gonna happen if we keep running up the debt like this? Eventually you're gonna have to print to solve that, and that will be inflationary.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Miller: US interest rates will stay elevated for 12 to 15-plus years
“So, my guess is, and this is just a guess, and he who lives by the crystal ball will eat glass, but that it looks more like a slow bleed out than one sort of imminent moment. Of course there will be shocks, but I think what it looks like is for a protracted pe…”
Opinion
Miller: Studying classics and history beats academic economics for understanding markets
“So much of academic econ right now is about solving for some global maxima using physics equations that really don't belong in our economy. Whereas studying classics in history, just seeing how civilizations grow, thrive, and ultimately fall, has a lot more be…”
Opinion
Miller: Bridgewater spent too much time discussing how to talk about problems
“There were a lot of tools and structures and red tape put in place, which, you know, maybe at the company that size, it's unavoidable, but it felt like too much of our time was spent on Talking about how to talk about problems than the problems themselves.”
Insight
Miller: Outperformance requires unique info, unique access, insight, or luck
“I think there's really only four ways to outperform. You need to have a unique, unique information, unique access, unique insight, or have luck.”
Opinion
Miller: Registered liquid private credit products carry underestimated risks
“Now, there's a little bit too much hype in this space right now at an aggregate level, and a lot of these registered liquid products are being marketed to RAs and their clients, and we think there's more risk in those than people assume, because you, once you'…”
Insight
Miller: Unaddressed underperformance causes star employees to leave and organizations to fail
“Great people want to work with other great people, and organizations can really die when you have someone who's a star, and they see other people around them underperforming, and that not being rectified.”
Insight
Miller: Bond and FX markets feature non-economic actors unlike public equities
“In the public equity markets, everyone is there to make a profit. You're competing against every analyst and hedge fund in bonds and in currencies. They're non-economic actors. You have the fed who's not trying to make money. You have people just trying to do …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Miller: Operational PE firms win deals despite offering lower valuations
“And so seasoned private equity with the experience of helping teams get through these higher cost capital periods and portfolios that can be additive to one another to help reduce costs and get people through the next few years. They're winning deals now, even…”
Insight
Miller: Venture returns autocorrelate because top founders choose top VCs
“And the auto correlation point in venture is key because the best founders know who the best VCs are, and that word gets around, and so you're gonna just see that deal flow.”
Assertion Supported
Miller: The average family office holds 30% to 50% in private markets
“Most, the average family office holds about 30 to 50% in private markets, and so there's a ton of experience that they can share with our users.”
Insight
Miller: Universities teach solvable exercises instead of real-world decision-making under uncertainty
“Largely, especially in econ lesson classics, they teach you how to solve exercises, which can be initially complex, but there's a definite answer that you can arrive at. Computers are really good at exercises. Problems don't have a definite solution, and so yo…”
