interest rates

also referred to as: interest rate

14 statements across 10 episodes · 1 bullish · 8 bearish · 10 people on the record · first statement Apr 27, 2016 by John Frankel · across every show →

Everything said about interest rates, oldest first

Apr 27, 2016 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
John Frankel Argues the Federal Reserve Is Trapped in a Rate-Cutting Loop
“The Fed has consistently cut rates over the last 16 years to solve problems brought about, to be quite honest, by low rates, and is now stuck in this circle sort of consuming itself and the rest of the economy.”
John Frankel Apr 27, 2016 ▶ 5:58 20VC: Why Every Successful Company Pivots and Good Companies Get Funded in Good & Bad Markets with John Frankel, Founding Partner @ ff Venture Capital
Mar 30, 2020 negative
Assertion Supported
Marks: US interest rates at 1.5% limited Fed rate cut capacity entering COVID
“Well, the problem is that in this instance, the interest rates at the beginning of the problem were one and a half percent. So clearly if it's one and a half, you can't cut by five.”
Howard Marks Mar 30, 2020 ▶ 7:53 20VC: Howard Marks on How COVID-19 Impacts Our Economy, Liquidity and National Debt, Why The Theory of Falling Knives and Market Bottoms is Wrong & Why The Best Investors Are Fundamentally Unemotional
Nov 2, 2020 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Stebbings: VC market will become increasingly frothy over next 2-3 years
“I'm not seeing interest rates going up anytime soon, especially not for the next two to three years. And I think we'll continue to see this inflow of capital into the venture market, making the market ever more frothy than it's been for the next two to three y…”
Harry Stebbings Nov 2, 2020 ▶ 9:07 20VC: The Implications of a Biden vs a Trump Administration on Venture and Startups, How The Rise of Rolling Funds, SPACs and Solo Capitalists Will Impact Venture & What We Can Do To Swing the Race Pendulum in VC with Barry Eggers, Founding Partner @ Ligh
Jan 4, 2021 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gurley: Near-zero interest rates break DCF models and drive market speculation
“Clearly the one thing that's different from the past 102 hundred years are near zero interest rates, maybe below zero real rates across the globe, and, you know, technically your DCF model just Blows up. It doesn't work, right? It doesn't solve. And at the ver…”
Bill Gurley Jan 4, 2021 ▶ 5:42 20VC: Bill Gurley and Howard Marks: What Happened In 2020? What Can We Expect Looking Forward to 2021?
Jan 4, 2021 positive
Insight
Marks: Record-low interest rates justify historical peak stock P/E ratios
“The lower the interest rates, the higher the asset price is justified. We have the lowest interest rates in history. That justifies, for example, the highest P.E. Ratios in history.”
Howard Marks Jan 4, 2021 ▶ 20:13 20VC: Bill Gurley and Howard Marks: What Happened In 2020? What Can We Expect Looking Forward to 2021?
Oct 10, 2022
Insight
Gerstner: Interest rates dictate valuations like gravity affects physical objects
“Interest rates are to valuations, you know, what gravity is to the apple.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 27:04 Brad Gerstner: How I Pick Companies; Lessons from Warren Buffet; Chamath vs Gurley | E935 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 10, 2022 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Post-pandemic interest rates will return to pre-COVID levels
“So I suspect that the new normal is going to look a lot like the old normal, but we have to get through this period of massive uncertain and volatility so that you and I can underwrite to a predictable cost of capital.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 32:31 Brad Gerstner: How I Pick Companies; Lessons from Warren Buffet; Chamath vs Gurley | E935 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 1, 2023 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Carney: Expecting a Return to Pre-Inflation Low Interest Rates Is Unrealistic
“To assume that we're going back to that world after we get through this bout of inflation is also in my view, an unrealistic assumption. You're just gambling for redemption on that one.”
Mark Carney May 1, 2023 ▶ 25:07 Mark Carney: First Republic Bank Fails; Will Interest Rates Rise? Global Warming's Net Zero | E1008 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 13, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Petersen: Double-digit interest rates would trigger US debt-inflation spiral
“If they do, the United States government's gonna be in a lot of trouble. We can't pay our debt of 10% interest. They have to keep printing money, and then you have an inflationary cycle, which then makes interest rates go even higher.”
Ryan Petersen Nov 13, 2023 ▶ 45:46 Ryan Petersen: Why Velocity not Speed is Most Important in Company Building | E1081 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 27, 2023 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2033
Rabois: Structural inflation will keep interest rates high for a decade
“They're not going much down. I mean, I think we have sustained inflation for structural reasons for a decade. Yeah. Plus or minus, they might be slightly alleviated, but there's a lot of very strong reasons why this zero interest rate or low interest rate envi…”
Keith Rabois Nov 27, 2023 ▶ 1:02:32 Keith Rabois & Mike Shebat: Creating an Olympian Mindset to Work Ethic| E1087 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 1, 2024
Insight
Quattrone: Rapid rate and valuation changes freeze M&A, not absolute rates
“When either valuations are coming down rapidly, going up rapidly, when interest rates are going up rapidly and the valuations are coming down because the markets are just, you know, wrapped with this new environment where there's actually a cost of capital, th…”
Frank Quattrone Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 45:03 Frank Quattrone: Lessons from 650 M&A Deals Worth Over $1TRN & Taking Amazon and Cisco Public| E1121 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 1, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Quattrone: In 1981, US interest rates were 16% and Dow was at 700
“And back then the Dow is at 700. Interest rates were at 16%. And there were very, very few technology companies with more than a few hundred million in market cap.”
Frank Quattrone Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 11:01 Frank Quattrone: Lessons from 650 M&A Deals Worth Over $1TRN & Taking Amazon and Cisco Public| E1121 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 4, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tangen: Interest rates will take longer to come down
“Personally, I think it will take longer for rates to come down.”
Nicolai Tangen Mar 4, 2024 ▶ 7:55 Nicolai Tangen: Managing the Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund in the World | E1122 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 4, 2024 negative
Opinion
Tangen: Central banks were too slow to raise interest rates
“I have previously said that I thought they were a bit slow to increase rates.”
Nicolai Tangen Mar 4, 2024 ▶ 19:35 Nicolai Tangen: Managing the Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund in the World | E1122 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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