interest rates

“If interest rates ever go back up, say because of inflation, like the debt service will be one of the biggest chunks of federal spending.”

“So when they stopped doing that I think you can expect that, you know, interest rates are going to need to rise in order to make our debt attractive to, you know, to bond buyers.”

“For two months in a row, we've had sequential declines. You tell me, is the price of the used car this time next year higher than 29 or lower than 29? It's going to be lower because we're destroying demand by raising interest rates.”

“The iron law of investing is interest rates. A one percent change in rates leads to a 15 or 20% change in a multiple.”

“Just take Snowflake as an example. The move from 400 to 200 Was probably just what I would describe as normalization in a world where rates were going back to two and a half or three percent, right?”

“It's going to go by 75. It's probably going to go another 75. We're going to have rates by four to four 50 to five percent, probably within Q one.”

“My guess is that they'll be too slow to react to the recession. So we'll end up with a period of rates being higher than they should too long, and then they will correct. They'll drop rates, but that could be two years from now.”

“The markets have completely said, we now discredit what you did. And they're basically banking that the fed will be forced to cut rates massively in short course because the crisis will be so severe that it'll outweigh the risk of inflation.”

“And so you just have to get prepared for rates just being sticky and inflation being sticky. And I think that that's probably the most reasonable base case for the rest of the decade.”

“The UK, it seems like, I don't know what you guys think, it's definitely going to seven, and it could go to eight.”

“Every day that interest rates are off, are one percent higher based on the current federal debt level, we're paying an incremental billion dollars in interest payments per day.”

“And so I kind of tend to be in this camp that we're going to see more than one rate cut.”

“The silver lining is that it probably now tips the balance of action in September to a cut, and if it was 25 basis points, There's probably going to be a lot of folks lobbying the Fed to cut 50, and I think that they probably have enough numerical justificatio…”

“And why will they cut probably all the way down to two or three percent by the end of 26? It's because we now need to stimulate the economy.”

“This is not the time to be cutting rates. And the market is saying we are expecting higher rates for longer.”

“Elon and Besant and others in the administration have echoed trying to get government deficit below three percent of GDP. That seems to be the economic magical number. And if you can do that, rates drop.”

“There is a non-linear relationship between the deficit and interest rates, which drives up the debt problem in a non-linear way, and it gets away from you, and you can't fix it.”

“In the CBO estimates, they assume in all of their models that interest rates are at 3.6%.”

“Rates are coming down anyway.”

“I think we're headed for a gangbusters. 2026 rates are coming down.”

“And by June, I predict we will see more rate cuts. Possibly, 75 to a hundred basis points, and big tax refunds are coming in April, thanks to a bigger standard deduction and no tax on tips overtime and Social Security.”

“Four percent unemployment, two percent interest rates. Both of those are going to be challenged. Yeah. Both of those are going to be challenged because of very significant techno Technological and macro forces.”