Assertion Supported
Su: FT reported major Gulf economies reviewed invoking force majeure on commitments
“In early March, the Financial Times reported that the three of the four major Gulf economies were collectively Doing an internal review of whether they could invoke force majeure on their financial commitments.”
Insight
Su: Energy history consists of additions, not replacements of fossil fuels
“In all of history, we've never really had a true energy transition. We've just had energy additions, and the president of the S&P, and also awesome fossil fuel historian and energy thinker, Daniel Yergin, Says this a lot, right? Like we've only ever had additi…”
Assertion Partly supported
Su: Captive coal plants supply 60% of energy for Chinese solar manufacturing
“So it's kind of like you know, behind the meter for coal for a solar facility. So it's accounting for, I've seen some estimates, accounting for 60% of the energy used to produce these solar panels.”
Opinion
Su: Climate tech models assuming €100 carbon prices carry major political risk
“If you're building, I don't know if you're a crazy person, and you're unfortunately building a DAC company right now, or Green Steel, and your revenue model assumed a 100 euro per ton carbon price in perpetuity, You're taking on political risk whether you ackn…”
Assertion Supported
Su: Invoking force majeure in sovereign investments lacks modern precedent
“Invoking force majeure in sovereign investment agreements would be without modern precedent.”
Opinion
Su: Window for quick return to normal Gulf capital flows has passed
“Obviously short contained conflicts tend to see repatriation for a few quarters, but then, like, resume business as usual, but honestly, Lara, I think that ship has sailed.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Su: Weak 2021 returns leave climate GPs struggling to raise follow-on funds
“So LPs who wrote checks into climate funds in 2021 or 22 to 22 are looking at kind of a lack of returns that don't necessarily support re-ups today, which means that subsequently a lot of climate GPs, not all, but a lot, are then struggling to go out and raise…”
Assertion Supported
Su: Populist parties in Italy, Poland, and Germany challenge EU ETS framework
“Italy, Poland, and Germany have all seen, as we know, nationalists or populist parties challenge the ETS framework, in some cases directly as a response to the war in Iran.”
Opinion
Su: Understanding geopolitics should be a core requirement for all investors
“I think it should be everybody's job as an investor. So, so that would be the first thing is I consider it to be kind of one of the top bullet points in the job description”
Assertion Supported
Su: VCs courted Gulf allocators seeking to diversify from oil and gas
“VCs started to head to the Gulf states a while ago, right, like a decade ago, to court some of that region's enormous
Capital reserves not only because there was a lot of it to go around, but because also on the demand side of that, Gulf state allocators were …”
Opinion
Su: GPs may hesitate to call committed capital from Gulf LPs
“So, GPs, and I think we saw this at the beginning of COVID as well, GPs may self-censor especially with those Gulf LPs in a time when it feels a little bit awkward, to say the least to be going around You know, with your hand out for money even if it was alrea…”
Assertion Supported
Su: Some limited partners finance their capital via credit lines
“And I can't tell you, like, as a fact, how many LPs and other funders are financing off of a credit line, but I can tell you that it's not zero.”
Assertion Supported
Su: Only ~25% of VC Firms Successfully Raise a Fund III
“I think the drop-off rate
Across venture capital in general, separate from climate tech and all of our specific quirks is extremely high.
I think it's like only 25% go on to raise like a fund three or something like that.”
Assertion Partly supported
Su: 85% to 88% of solar hardware is produced in China
“Most of you know, 85 or 88% of the world's solar hardware gets made in China. We know that. Most of that is being made in Xinjiang.”
Insight
Su: Climate founders must extend runway to three years to survive
“Gosh, honestly, even if you're just an individual, extend runway. Be default alive by any means necessary, however you can and extend runway to three years if possible.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Su: The next two years will be a brutal filtering process
“The next year and a half to two years, 18 to 24 months, is just going to be a brutal filtering process. Environment.”
Assertion Supported
Su: 40% of global sovereign wealth is Gulf sovereign wealth
“40% of global sovereign wealth is Gulf sovereign wealth.”
Insight
Su: 5% Rates Substantially Devalue Long-Duration Climate Tech Assets
“When the risk-free rate went from zero to five whole percent,
Every long duration asset gets repriced, and climate tech is the ultimate, unfortunately, the ultimate long duration category.
A company that needs 10 or even you know, 20 years to reach meaningful …”
