Venture partner Susan Su discusses the financial repercussions of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East on global capital and climate tech finance.
Insight
Su: Energy history consists of additions, not replacements of fossil fuels
“In all of history, we've never really had a true energy transition. We've just had energy additions, and the president of the S&P, and also awesome fossil fuel historian and energy thinker, Daniel Yergin, Says this a lot, right? Like we've only ever had additi…”
Assertion Partly supported
Su: Captive coal plants supply 60% of energy for Chinese solar manufacturing
“So it's kind of like you know, behind the meter for coal for a solar facility. So it's accounting for, I've seen some estimates, accounting for 60% of the energy used to produce these solar panels.”
Opinion
Su: Climate tech models assuming €100 carbon prices carry major political risk
“If you're building, I don't know if you're a crazy person, and you're unfortunately building a DAC company right now, or Green Steel, and your revenue model assumed a 100 euro per ton carbon price in perpetuity, You're taking on political risk whether you ackn…”
Assertion Supported
Su: Invoking force majeure in sovereign investments lacks modern precedent
“Invoking force majeure in sovereign investment agreements would be without modern precedent.”
Opinion
Su: Window for quick return to normal Gulf capital flows has passed
“Obviously short contained conflicts tend to see repatriation for a few quarters, but then, like, resume business as usual, but honestly, Lara, I think that ship has sailed.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Su: Weak 2021 returns leave climate GPs struggling to raise follow-on funds
“So LPs who wrote checks into climate funds in 2021 or 22 to 22 are looking at kind of a lack of returns that don't necessarily support re-ups today, which means that subsequently a lot of climate GPs, not all, but a lot, are then struggling to go out and raise…”