Artificial Superintelligence

“It sounds like the mission statement. It sounds like the explicit goal of like, 17 different companies right now.”

“The data I have is that a number of very smart and even very self-aware research scientists have felt that, you know, there was some knee in the curve on recursive self-improvement or ASI, 18 months away, every 18 months for the last five years.”

“Bitter lesson adjacent is the fact that coding might be the shortest path to ASI and useful AI. Because if you're really good at coding, you can write yourself code to do anything.”

“I have, I think I am on the record as saying that the median timeline I discussed or the modal timeline, sorry I think it's modal, yeah which might be on the early side compared to where my median is is, you know, twenty-forty-five was where, when I did the po…”

“Turing's the world's leading research accelerator, working with all of these frontier labs to advance them along I would say the four pillars of superintelligence which is multimodality, reasoning, tool use, and coding. If you solve these four things, you will…”

“And I think of ASI as us having automated 90% of the tasks that 90% of humans do today in front of a computer, right?”

“The thing is when that happens, I don't think what we end up with is just pure ASI end of humanity, human knowledge work or whatever. I think the thing that we end up in is basically a point where the hard question is, all right, now what is the benchmark, rig…”

“And I think for as long as models are improving, humans will be needed in this process. And when you talk to the lead scientists and researchers at these labs, it's like the data types will evolve and what they're trying to capture and collect, but you know, t…”

“Maybe coding is the way that we get to the next level of intelligence. If you call it like AGI or ASI or whatever, the model needs some way to interact with the world and for a model, the natural way is code.”

“ASI.”

“But that was only meaningful when the ingredients for how to build artificial general intelligence, or ASI were not known. I think now they're known, and so.”

“As long as you pick a category that I would say is kind of big enough to be ASI complete I think, and this is kind of our approach at Reflection, is it makes a lot more sense to be focused and co-design those two things together, the product of the research.”

“The next paradigm, and effectively the final paradigm that we need to have in place before a, you know, what people used to call AGI, or now I think the goalposts have shifted to ASI, is reached, is just figuring out how to scale reinforcement learning on top …”

“The reward problem in itself is at the time I called, I thought it was AGI complete. Now I'd say it's ASI complete, but by the time you have a neural network that can accurately verify any outcome, that is probably a super intelligence.”

“If this is actually the last window to make money and get rich, then you're basically implying that, you know, that we're going to get some definition of AGI or ASI, or whatever you want to call it. That's like a necessary condition for that to be true. Like, …”

“I don't think we have any more evidence that ASI might be close now than we did 15 years ago, 15 years before that.”

“I have no particular reason to believe that will happen, and for every point until we get there, if we ever get there, by definition, there's going to be humans interacting with AI, and so that's what I care about, is how do we do that In an optimal way.”

“Look, for me, I think ASI is here in narrow pockets, right? Like when I use deep research, like I've seen the future. It's just absolutely incredible.”

“That society probably, you know, unless there's other changes there, like that's, you can sort of count on a single, ah, artificial super intelligence, like sort of setting the, how everything works over there.”

“My argument would be, like, the most American version of it is that, like, you know, you and I have our own ASI. And, like, each, you know, each citizen should be, you know, issued an ASI and be taught how to get the most out of it.”

“I think that there is an immaterial part of our nature. Numbers are immaterial. Data is numbers. Like it's pretty logical to believe that like we are ourselves an immaterial. There's something about it. Therefore I can't actually put it in bits and bytes. So A…”

“I see a very similar vein in AI, where people, especially people that believe in AGI and ASI and magical AI, think that it's just gonna explode, and then whoever controls this uncontrollable force will control the globe. In a zero-sum way. And I just, I don't …”

“And I found that, like, the subject is pretty evergreen, because we're not, you know, over the last year and a half, like, the same principles apply. And, you know, we're not really talking about Like, you know, using specific tools and APIs is more of a gener…”

“I can see a path where the work we are doing just keeps compounding, and the rate of progress we've made Over the last three years, continuous for the next three, or six, or nine, or whatever. You know, nine years would be, like, 3500 days, or whatever. If we …”

“You know, we VCs are suckers for a big vision, so super from general is, is, is a VC magnet.”

“Masayushi Sohn, the head of SoftBank, is here quoted saying that, nine trillion dollars of capex for artificial super intelligence is very reasonable. In fact, it may be too small.”

“The reason why Those might not matter is if you really believe you're two years away from AGI and AGI is only two years away from ASI. So none, none of this matters, but I, you know, I personally don't believe that, right? I think we've got, you know, kind of …”

“Artificial super intelligence will be here long before that.”

“And like, I think when we achieve that it'll break all this 20 dollar a month Business models.”

“So that definition of AGI to me is the bar, that's the entry level into AGI, but I do not think that's where it stops. I think you start going into what they call ASI, or artificial superintelligence, and it may be the case in certain dimensions is the scaling…”

“I said pro plus 95, so it's probably more like two percent revenue churn.”

“I can tell you this year, we have a goal to have a positive revenue churn, a 101% revenue churn.”

“When people move from on-premise to the cloud, they pay an upcharge.”

“Fifty-six million dollars.”

“Yes, we are.”

“So I feel like once you get to AGI and you're able to have machines that can operate 24 seven, sufficiently work together and do further research in the space, you'll probably get to an ASI in a much shorter period of time. Anything from weeks to months to yea…”

“I think their entire, you know, there's a field of futurists who should do that, but I do think we're 2030 years away from that, and when we get there, I hope we will put the right parameters in place to make the right decisions.”

“So, my idea is, what if we could augment ourselves with this AI stuff we're building? That's probably the way out. That's probably the way we get away with this.”