Aman Kabeer

Investor, FirstMark Capital · 2 appearances on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

Aman Kabeer is a venture investor at FirstMark Capital. He focuses on artificial intelligence market trends, valuations, and venture investments.

13statements → 10claims → 8claims resolved → 75%fully supported → 3.92/5average certainty → 2.15/5average debate potential →

6 supported 2 partly supported 0 contradicted 2 not checkable as stated how the 10 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

10 assertions · 2 insights · 1 what if · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 10 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 8 are resolved, and 2 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Aman argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Sierra quadrupled its valuation to $4.5B on $20M ARR
“Yes, current chairman of OpenAI as well which is more than quadrupling its valuation this year to four and a half billion. You know, on the other side of that equation is roughly twenty million of ARR.”
Aman Kabeer Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 11:11 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark

How they sound: speaking style how? →

260 words/min while actually speaking · 40.5 um and uh per 1k words

No argument clarity score for Aman Kabeer: only 1 usable question→answer exchange on raw tape (a fair score needs 8+). We do not score a sample that small. Roundtable and news formats yield far fewer direct exchanges than interviews.

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 3,133 words across 2 episodes of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

Everything Aman Kabeer said on the MAD Podcast that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Supported
Sierra quadrupled its valuation to $4.5B on $20M ARR
“Yes, current chairman of OpenAI as well which is more than quadrupling its valuation this year to four and a half billion. You know, on the other side of that equation is roughly twenty million of ARR.”
Aman Kabeer Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 11:11 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Private AI startups hold a $40B valuation against under $100M revenue
“And basically the kind of end, end all of the chart kind of proves the point that you have, let's say, roughly forty billion dollars in valuation across a number of these names but less than a hundred million dollars of revenue.”
Aman Kabeer Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 12:16 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark
Assertion Supported
Over 25% of new code at Google is AI-generated
“Sundar Pashai said, you know, more than a quarter of all code written at Google is now generated by AI before it's reviewed and accepted by engineers”
Aman Kabeer Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 26:28 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark
Assertion Not checkable as stated
FirstMark survey: 62% of CTOs adopting AI were underwhelmed by impact
“While 64% of, you know, CTOs in our guild had adopted AI in some form or the other in the last 12 months, 62% of those that had adopted AI were underwhelmed by the impact it had on their organization.”
Aman Kabeer Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 51:28 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark
Assertion Supported
Safe Superintelligence raised a $1B seed round pre-product
“There's also kind of the biggest seed round ever, right, that we saw. Safe superintelligence helmed by Former OpenAI chief scientist and co-founder Ilya Sutskover raising roughly a billion dollars in cash at a five billion dollar valuation pre-basically anythi…”
Aman Kabeer Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 3:09 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark
Assertion Supported
Google's $2.7B Character.AI deal was the largest acquihire ever
“And, you know, we also had the biggest acquihire of all time. So for those of you who don't know, 2.7 billion dollar acquihire by Google of the Character AI founders who, funny enough, were already at Google before they went to start Character AI.”
Aman Kabeer Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 3:28 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark
Assertion Supported
AI startups reach $30M ARR five times faster than legacy SaaS
“The AI startups in the cohort that Stripe measured took 11 months to reach one million in ARR after their first sales on Stripe versus 15 for the previous generation of SaaS businesses, and then maybe more impressively, you know, scaling to more than thirty mi…”
Aman Kabeer Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 24:41 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark
Assertion Partly supported
Palantir is the most richly valued software company today
“It's the most richly valued software company today.”
Aman Kabeer Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 8:03 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark
What-if
Sitting out the dot-com boom meant missing foundational tech companies
“And if you would have sat out then you would have, you know, maybe avoided a couple of busts, but you would have also missed on some of the most foundational companies of our lives.”
Aman Kabeer Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 31:33 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark
Insight
VCs are suckers for big visions like artificial superintelligence
“You know, we VCs are suckers for a big vision, so super from general is, is, is a VC magnet.”
Aman Kabeer Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 34:39 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark
Insight
Open-source AI popularity is fleeting and does not equal commercial traction
“As we've seen over the past year popularity doesn't necessarily translate into commercial traction, and popularity is pretty fleeting in the world of AI.”
Aman Kabeer Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 43:46 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark
Assertion Partly supported
Palantir has reached $2.7 billion in ARR
“They're, you know, at 2.7 billion of ARR today, which is pretty massive.”
Aman Kabeer Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 8:41 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark
Assertion Supported
Top 10 public SaaS companies trade at 14-15x revenue multiples
“The top 10 names in the public markets are somewhere in the 14 to 15 X range. And that's just the top 10 companies in the world today on the software side, but the actual median is closer to five to six X. In the past it's closer to 10 X.”
Aman Kabeer Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 13:40 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark

Appearances (2)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, Nov 8, 2024 10m
Navigating the AI Landscape: A Survival Guide | 2024 MAD Landscape with Matt Turck and Ama Apr 26, 2024 3m
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 400 conversations transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.