The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Dylan Patel (6)Ryan Greenblatt (2)Nathan Benaich (2)Matthew Prince (2)Emi Gal (2)Christopher Nguyen (2)Azeem Azhar (2)Aaron Levie (2)Sholto Douglas (1)Sharon Zhou (1)Prakash Nanduri (1)Mike Murchison (1)
drag to pan · pinch, buttons, or ⌘/ctrl scroll to zoom
Next up (19)
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
174 days left 2027-03-06
595 days left 2028-04-30
750 days left 2028-10-02
Douglas: AI industry will reach human-level computer capabilities in 2-3 years
“Which is that in the next two or three years, given the right feedback loops, given the right compute, given the right, you know, elbow grease and this kind of stuff, we think that we as the AI industry are all on track to create something that is at least as …”
1166 days left 2029-11-22
Azeem Azhar: 75% of people will use AI daily by 2029
“I think you have to be making quite a bold and, you know, heterodox claim to say that we won't all, by which I mean, 75% of us, be using these things daily in less than seven years from when ChatGPT launched, which was November the 22. And, ah, and that means …”
1205 days left 2029-12-31
1205 days left 2029-12-31
Misaligned AI will competently scheme and take over in 2029
“And then it turned out that somewhere along this transition, so at some point in 20, 29, you went from AIs that were kind of misaligned and reward hacky and sloppy and weren't really trying to do the right thing to AIs that are like competently scheming agains…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1606 days left 2031-02-05
1746 days left 2031-06-25
Prince predicts bot traffic will be 1,000x human traffic within five years
“I think that if you extrapolate this out, you know, in five years, I think you'll see a thousand times more bot traffic than human traffic. And if I had to take kind of an over under bet on that, I'd take the over bet that it's just going to, it's growing at s…”
2103 days left 2032-06-16
2731 days left 2034-03-06
3082 days left 2035-02-20
Quantum and optical computing remain 10 to 15 years away from production
“We think that because that's primary research, that, that's a good, ah, 10 to 15 years out, whereas what we looked to do was to take, ah, pre, ah, technology we could manufacture, maybe difficult, but all achievable, so we weren't trying to invent any new law …”
3285 days left 2035-09-11
3545 days left 2036-05-28
Levie: AI compute cost reductions will take 5 to 10 years
“The data center providers, the labs, et cetera, have pricing power. They don't need to lower their prices on anything. So you're not seeing the typical things that drive down the cost of compute. I'm highly optimistic that that happens over the next five to 10…”
5655 days left 2042-03-08
Azhar: Mobile data growth should reach 90,000-fold over the next 20 years
“Over the next 20 years, which is two lots of 10 years, we should, if it was, if it grew at the rate it grew over the last decade, it would grow 90,000 times, 300 squared. So if you think it's going to be less than a 90,000 fold growth, you have to have quite a…”
Closed calls (60+) the full record →
Autonomous robots will perform construction site grading within five years
“We see robots being able to do that in the next five years.”
Gomez: Specialist AI models will emerge for drug creation and material sciences
“There will be specialist models that emerge to help in things like in pharma, right? The creation of new drugs in material sciences for advanced materials.”
Bernhardsson: AI inference spend will dominate model training spend long-term
“It's obvious that like in the long run, like inference spend will dominate just for like the obvious reason that like, that's where you make the money, right? Like, you know, when you're training a big model, that's like, you know, you, you're spending a lot o…”
Kahn: AI targeting in urban warfare will misidentify targets and kill civilians
“And I think when you start putting them in crowded urban environments and ask them to, You know, only kill the bad guys and spare the civilians that we're going to see mistakes being made, you know, where the systems misidentify targets.”
Katti: Skilled labor shortages will become an increasing bottleneck for AI expansion
“No, I think there is definitely a shortage of electricians, plumbers, all kinds of trades, you name it. So anything we can do to train more folks to be able to do those, there are very well-paying jobs that a lot of us, all of the hyperscalers, all of the labs…”
Gomez: Cohere's Command model will soon become multimodal
“Command command a isn't currently multimodal, but you can imagine Very soon it will be.”
Top AI models will work autonomously for full days within two years
“In a year from now, maybe two years from now, it's the top models are going to be able to work completely on their own for like a whole day or more”
Socher: Web traffic from AI agents will surpass humans within years
“I think in the next few years, we're going to see more AI agents surfing the web. Then people surfing the web”
Hitchcock: SurrealDB will be the first database with multi-model time travel
“We will be the first database that enables you to time travel in your data in the different types of models that you can work with in SurrealDB.”
Burazin: AI agent scale creates high probability of impending CPU shortages
“I don't know it goes to the extreme to where GPUs are because that is very, very, very extreme. But it is quite highly, high probability that there will be shortages of CPUs going forward.”
Kant: Poolside first compute online late 2025, 250MW by Q1 2027
“So at the beginning of Q four, end of Q three, so next year, we've got the first compute coming online. And then we're finalizing in Q one, 20, 27, the first you know, 250 megawatts, but already next summer, the next 250 megawatts starts construction. It's a s…”
Major AI firm will launch a frontier text diffusion model in 2026
“I think one company will launch a big diffusion model this year.”
Average corporate AI spend hits $500,000 and will reach $1M
“The total spend on AI products per customer kind of went up from 35,000 dollars or so maybe two years ago. Now it's around half a million dollars, and it's predicted to hit a million dollars next year.”
Kant: Non-engineers will build software via AI prompts within three years
“We don't think we're more than three years out to that point where a non-engineer, someone with no coding, you know, software development background is able to come and give one of those high level vague things of what they want built, right? Cause that's what…”
Airbus single-pilot AI search application will take a few more years
“For Airbus, the case is it's something they are working on. It's probably something that will take a few more years because it's all embedded in this overall vision of single pilot operations.”
Patel: All major non-Nvidia AI chips will fully support vLLM by mid-2026
“All of them will have a very good UX for download model, run model on VLM by The middle of the year, I think, right? Certainly AMD is already there by the end of this quarter.”
Ratner: Private data models will exceed closed models in specialized tasks
“Closed source models, like a GPT-IV, five, six, seven, whatever comes, are going to be very hard to match in terms of generalist capability for, say, consumer use cases that are reflected in the web data they're trained on and the flywheels that get powered by…”
Patel: OpenAI's next model will outperform Opus 4.5 around February-March
“OpenAI's new model, I think, will be better than Opus 4.5, and it's coming, like, somewhat soon in March-ish timeframe, maybe February, March-ish, but”
Hebbia aims to scale to 300-400 employees by the end of 2025
“And so we were opening SF and we've already opened a London office which is incredibly exciting with goals to end the year at 300 to 400 employees.”
~35 US states will enact data privacy regulations by late 2025
“I think by the end of 20, 25, something like 35 states in the US will have their own privacy regulation.”
Kant: Most developers will adopt AI pair programmers within two years
“Well, the first thing that I think is at this point, almost uncontested, but frankly, when I was building source, most people didn't think would happen is the fact that the majority, if not all developers in the next couple of years in the world will adopt som…”
Pesenti in 2020: 10x annual AI compute scaling is economically unsustainable
“So we're still pushing hard, but it's not going to be 10 X per year. It's just not sustainable.”
Katzenberg: External AI model pricing will fall over 12-18 months
“I think their pricing will continue to improve. So we can't just look at like where their pricing is today and assume it's going to be static over the next 12 months or 18 months. Cause like as they compete, their compute costs will come down. Like they'll, I …”