The Calls

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Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

4open predictions

0due for another look

2closed calls →

109days to next prediction date

Everyone Dylan Patel (6)Ryan Greenblatt (2)Nathan Benaich (2)Matthew Prince (2)Emi Gal (2)Christopher Nguyen (2)Azeem Azhar (2)Aaron Levie (2)Sholto Douglas (1)Sharon Zhou (1)Prakash Nanduri (1)Mike Murchison (1)

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today 202720282029 AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 2 calls beyond 2029 →

Next up (4)

109 days left 2026-12-31

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026

Patel: AI software industry could hit $100 billion ARR this year

“I think the industry could hit a hundred billion ARR by the end of this year, like 45, 50 for open AI, like 35, 40 for anthropic.”

Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 39:28 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”

109 days left 2026-12-31

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026

Patel: Hyperscaler capex will reach roughly $500 billion this year

“Hyperscalers capex is going to be like five hundred billion dollars this year or something like this.”

Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 50:11 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”

1570 days left 2030-12-31

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030

Patel: Data centers will use under 1% of US water by 2030

“So the U.S. Grid will get to, like, 10% of power by, like, 28, 27, is data centers. For water consumption, it's not even gonna crack one percent. By the end of the decade.”

Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 57:48 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”

1606 days left 2031-02-05

Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2031

Patel: Data center power consumption will grow from 2% to 10% of US grid

“And then you've got data centers now all of a sudden coming online and going from two percent to 10% of the U S grid in just a handful of years.”

Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 55:52 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”

Closed calls (2) the full record →

Prediction Held up

Patel: All major non-Nvidia AI chips will fully support vLLM by mid-2026

“All of them will have a very good UX for download model, run model on VLM by The middle of the year, I think, right? Certainly AMD is already there by the end of this quarter.”

Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 15:52 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”

Prediction Held up

Patel: OpenAI's next model will outperform Opus 4.5 around February-March

“OpenAI's new model, I think, will be better than Opus 4.5, and it's coming, like, somewhat soon in March-ish timeframe, maybe February, March-ish, but”

Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 1:11:17 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”

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Closed calls (2) the full record →

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