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The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

2open predictions
0due for another look
0closed calls →
2103days to next prediction date
Everyone Dylan Patel (6)Ryan Greenblatt (2)Nathan Benaich (2)Matthew Prince (2)Emi Gal (2)Christopher Nguyen (2)Azeem Azhar (2)Aaron Levie (2)Sholto Douglas (1)Sharon Zhou (1)Prakash Nanduri (1)Mike Murchison (1)
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today 2026202720282029 OctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 2 calls beyond 2029 →

Next up (2)

2103 days left 2032-06-16
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2032
Nguyen: Cost parity for human-brain level AI will arrive in 16 years
“There's another metric you look at in terms of traverse edges per second. And when you look at that, and you say, well, when would it take for it to become human in terms of cost? That's in about 16 years.”
Christopher Nguyen Jun 16, 2016 ▶ 15:16 The Path to A.I. Augmented Human Intelligence // Christopher Nguyen, Arimo [FirstMark's Data Driven]
14521 days left 2066-06-16
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2066
Nguyen: Energy bounds put human-level AI compute 50 years away
“And if you compute the equivalent energy required per neuron, and extrapolating that, it'll take about 50 years to get the equivalent human brain.”
Christopher Nguyen Jun 16, 2016 ▶ 15:07 The Path to A.I. Augmented Human Intelligence // Christopher Nguyen, Arimo [FirstMark's Data Driven]
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