Christopher Nguyen, co-founder and CEO of Arimo, presents timelines for artificial superintelligence based on biological neural energy metrics.
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2032
Nguyen: Cost parity for human-brain level AI will arrive in 16 years
“There's another metric you look at in terms of traverse edges per second. And when you look at that, and you say, well, when would it take for it to become human in terms of cost? That's in about 16 years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nguyen: Human-AI augmentation is humanity's best survival path against superintelligence
“So, my idea is, what if we could augment ourselves with this AI stuff we're building? That's probably the way out. That's probably the way we get away with this.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nguyen: Brain-machine interfaces will create hyper-evolved humans within 50 years
“So, if we implement this, and we implement brain-machine interfaces, within the next 50 years, we can become that hyper-evolved being, right?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nguyen: Parameter servers are the most efficient distributed deep learning architecture
“So, it turns out the fourth one is the most efficient one because it doesn't have to communicate the model back and forth anymore.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nguyen: In 2016, Google Brain is at the intelligence of a cockroach
“If you look at the Google brain, it's at the level of a, about a cockroach. Ok? And it's got about a million neurons.”
Assertion Partly supported
Nguyen: Blind people can learn to see through their tongues
“And after six or eight weeks of training, blind people can learn to quote, unquote, see through their tongue, because the brain learns to detect those signals.”