The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

2open predictions

0due for another look

0closed calls →

595days to next prediction date

Everyone Dylan Patel (6)Ryan Greenblatt (2)Nathan Benaich (2)Matthew Prince (2)Emi Gal (2)Christopher Nguyen (2)Azeem Azhar (2)Aaron Levie (2)Sholto Douglas (1)Sharon Zhou (1)Prakash Nanduri (1)Mike Murchison (1)

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today 2026202720282029 OctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 1 call beyond 2029 →

Next up (2)

595 days left 2028-04-30

Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2028

Software engineering within AI companies will be fully automated by 2028

“But then that actually really happens by sort of early in 20, 28, like SWE is fully automated. SWE within AI companies is fully automated.”

Ryan Greenblatt Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 1:13:34 AI Could Take Over in 2029. Is It Already Too Late?

1205 days left 2029-12-31

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029

Misaligned AI will competently scheme and take over in 2029

“And then it turned out that somewhere along this transition, so at some point in 20, 29, you went from AIs that were kind of misaligned and reward hacky and sloppy and weren't really trying to do the right thing to AIs that are like competently scheming agains…”

Ryan Greenblatt Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 1:17:25 AI Could Take Over in 2029. Is It Already Too Late?

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The Calls

Next up (2)

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