Prediction Not checkable as stated
Most major software companies will eventually integrate a Web3 database
“And so there's this asymptotic cost curve that will come down, and at some point, our belief is that most major software companies will actually have a Web three database as part of their stack.”
Insight
AI focus creates pricing arbitrage in non-AI startup categories
“There's probably some pricing arbitrage in other categories where people aren't paying attention.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Crypto token equity rounds will hit hundreds of millions to billions
“And then many of the token launches will raise equity rounds before they go public. And those will be in the several hundred million to billions again.”
Assertion Partly supported
Ethereum's $400M Q1 net income makes it the most profitable software business
“In Q one, if you were to look at Ethereum as a business and we can have this debate about whether it is or not, but if you were to look at it as a business, it produced four hundred million roughly in free cashflow or net income, which makes it the most profit…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Core AI IP advances may shift from foundation models to retrieval
“So maybe the core intellectual property advance actually happens in the information retrieval step and the embeddings and the vectors as opposed to the underlying models.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Autonomous AI agents will likely boost productivity 4-5x more than copilots
“So theoretically, if it's anywhere close can a copilot or sorry, an agent is probably four to five times more productivity boosting job producing than an agent, than a copilot.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Antitrust locks Big Tech out of M&A, empowering Snowflake and Databricks
“But you look at like Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, all are under an attack trust and basically impossible for them to acquire. So there's, you don't really have the big chip stacks at the table anymore, which means if you're an acquirer like Snowflake o…”
Prediction Held up
Tunguz: ~$80B will be invested in AI venture capital in 2024
“I think there'll be something like eighty billion dollars invested in 2024 in AI.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Only three crypto publications matter for fundraising or product announcements
“So now there are three crypto publications in totality that matter for a fundraising announcement or a new product announcement.”
Opinion
Ethereum should be evaluated as a database company
“And so the way that I look at it, and this is not a broadly held view, but the way I look at it is that's a database company.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Next-gen AI will route queries via hybrid constellation models
“We think that the next generation architectures look like that, at least for handling very simple tasks.”
Insight
Chained LLMs suffer from compounding errors across multi-step pipelines
“One of the challenges that will happen with some of these large language models, particularly when they're chained or we let them operate for hours at a time is the intern effect where they're off at the beginning. And that's just because they're chaotic and n…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
$1B to $10B foundation model training costs price out startups
“As the cost to train all these large language models becomes bigger and bigger, Amazon's talking about a billion dollars for a single run or ten billion dollars for a single run. It's beyond the realm of startups to really spend any time there.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
40% of deployed Robotic Process Automation bots are currently broken
“RPA, our analysis shows that a lot of the existing robots that are, about 40% of the existing robots deployed in RPA are broken, and that's either because the human process changed, Or the software underneath it changed.”
Insight
Machine learning's economic value lies in getting from 80% to 98% accuracy
“Machine learning systems it's easy to get to an 80% solution, but all the values in that marginal 15 or 18 to get to 95 to 98% accuracy.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Average company gross profit will grow 2-5% within 24 months via AI
“We, I mean, and these are just guesses, but we think that the average company in 18 to 24 months should be two to three to five percentage points more gross, have more gross profit.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cost cutting among enterprise data leaders has run its course
“Fed raises rates and cost cutting becomes the number one priority for all of these data leaders. I think that's now run its course.”
Assertion Supported
Marking up storage accounts for roughly 11% of Snowflake's revenue
“It's about 11% of Snowflake's revenue is marking up storage.”
Opinion
Amazon Redshift has fallen behind in next-generation cloud data warehousing
“Because the clouds themselves, you look at Redshift in the buyer's mind has really fallen behind in the next generation cloud data warehouse.”
Insight
Business intelligence software is fundamentally about governance, not charts
“Is it's really a governance tool. Like, the charts themselves are important and interesting, but the surface area of the products are enormous and take years to build, because it's all about how do we make sure that the data is going to the right person and it…”
Disclosure
Looker's embedded BI drove 33% of revenue with 2 of 750 employees
“So at Looker, when we sold the business, a third of the revenue was embedded. And out of a team of about seven to 750, there were two people working on that product.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Most data leaders favor restricted access to ensure data accuracy
“The one school of thought, what would you call classical, is that it's better for the organization to have less data if the data is all correct. And it's very easy to misinterpret data. There's there needs to be a lot of education on statistical significance o…”
Assertion Partly supported
Ethereum's market cap was 7.6 times Snowflake's in Q1 2024
“The total market cap of Ethereum is 7.6 times snowflakes market cap.”
Assertion Partly supported
Ethereum write costs fell from 1M to 1,000 times AWS RDS
“Three years ago, if I were to write the same data to Ethereum, it would cost me a million times more to write that row. Today, it costs about a thousand times more.”
