The Ledger
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Most major software companies will eventually integrate a Web3 database
“And so there's this asymptotic cost curve that will come down, and at some point, our belief is that most major software companies will actually have a Web three database as part of their stack.”
AI focus creates pricing arbitrage in non-AI startup categories
“There's probably some pricing arbitrage in other categories where people aren't paying attention.”
Crypto token equity rounds will hit hundreds of millions to billions
“And then many of the token launches will raise equity rounds before they go public. And those will be in the several hundred million to billions again.”
Ethereum's $400M Q1 net income makes it the most profitable software business
“In Q one, if you were to look at Ethereum as a business and we can have this debate about whether it is or not, but if you were to look at it as a business, it produced four hundred million roughly in free cashflow or net income, which makes it the most profit…”
Core AI IP advances may shift from foundation models to retrieval
“So maybe the core intellectual property advance actually happens in the information retrieval step and the embeddings and the vectors as opposed to the underlying models.”
Autonomous AI agents will likely boost productivity 4-5x more than copilots
“So theoretically, if it's anywhere close can a copilot or sorry, an agent is probably four to five times more productivity boosting job producing than an agent, than a copilot.”
Antitrust locks Big Tech out of M&A, empowering Snowflake and Databricks
“But you look at like Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, all are under an attack trust and basically impossible for them to acquire. So there's, you don't really have the big chip stacks at the table anymore, which means if you're an acquirer like Snowflake o…”
Tunguz: ~$80B will be invested in AI venture capital in 2024
“I think there'll be something like eighty billion dollars invested in 2024 in AI.”
Only three crypto publications matter for fundraising or product announcements
“So now there are three crypto publications in totality that matter for a fundraising announcement or a new product announcement.”
Ethereum should be evaluated as a database company
“And so the way that I look at it, and this is not a broadly held view, but the way I look at it is that's a database company.”
Next-gen AI will route queries via hybrid constellation models
“We think that the next generation architectures look like that, at least for handling very simple tasks.”
Chained LLMs suffer from compounding errors across multi-step pipelines
“One of the challenges that will happen with some of these large language models, particularly when they're chained or we let them operate for hours at a time is the intern effect where they're off at the beginning. And that's just because they're chaotic and n…”
$1B to $10B foundation model training costs price out startups
“As the cost to train all these large language models becomes bigger and bigger, Amazon's talking about a billion dollars for a single run or ten billion dollars for a single run. It's beyond the realm of startups to really spend any time there.”
40% of deployed Robotic Process Automation bots are currently broken
“RPA, our analysis shows that a lot of the existing robots that are, about 40% of the existing robots deployed in RPA are broken, and that's either because the human process changed, Or the software underneath it changed.”
Machine learning's economic value lies in getting from 80% to 98% accuracy
“Machine learning systems it's easy to get to an 80% solution, but all the values in that marginal 15 or 18 to get to 95 to 98% accuracy.”
Average company gross profit will grow 2-5% within 24 months via AI
“We, I mean, and these are just guesses, but we think that the average company in 18 to 24 months should be two to three to five percentage points more gross, have more gross profit.”
Cost cutting among enterprise data leaders has run its course
“Fed raises rates and cost cutting becomes the number one priority for all of these data leaders. I think that's now run its course.”
Marking up storage accounts for roughly 11% of Snowflake's revenue
“It's about 11% of Snowflake's revenue is marking up storage.”
Amazon Redshift has fallen behind in next-generation cloud data warehousing
“Because the clouds themselves, you look at Redshift in the buyer's mind has really fallen behind in the next generation cloud data warehouse.”
Business intelligence software is fundamentally about governance, not charts
“Is it's really a governance tool. Like, the charts themselves are important and interesting, but the surface area of the products are enormous and take years to build, because it's all about how do we make sure that the data is going to the right person and it…”
Looker's embedded BI drove 33% of revenue with 2 of 750 employees
“So at Looker, when we sold the business, a third of the revenue was embedded. And out of a team of about seven to 750, there were two people working on that product.”
Most data leaders favor restricted access to ensure data accuracy
“The one school of thought, what would you call classical, is that it's better for the organization to have less data if the data is all correct. And it's very easy to misinterpret data. There's there needs to be a lot of education on statistical significance o…”
Ethereum's market cap was 7.6 times Snowflake's in Q1 2024
“The total market cap of Ethereum is 7.6 times snowflakes market cap.”
Ethereum write costs fell from 1M to 1,000 times AWS RDS
“Three years ago, if I were to write the same data to Ethereum, it would cost me a million times more to write that row. Today, it costs about a thousand times more.”
~35 US states will enact data privacy regulations by late 2025
“I think by the end of 20, 25, something like 35 states in the US will have their own privacy regulation.”
GPU cloud providers resemble REITs, requiring heavy debt and Nvidia ties
“I think you really need to be pretty sophisticated when it comes to financial engineering, what kind of debt products that you use. Kind of like a REIT, a real estate investment trust, and that you'll, you'll produce really good profits, but you need a lot of …”
Amazon spiked cloud CapEx 18 months before Google and Microsoft
“Amazon Spiked almost 18 months before Google and Microsoft did, so they must have seen some of these inference workloads coming.”
Hyperscaler GPU CapEx heavily benefits early-stage AI startups and VCs
“And ideally somebody else is, it's not venture capital dollars that are being used to buy and manage those GPUs. So it's a huge benefit.”
Generative AI is fundamentally a multi-gigabyte knowledge compression engine
“The way we think, I think about generative is, it's a really great knowledge compression engine, right? Like I can compress the internet into a model that's like three gigs, right?”
Companies will need custom formulas combining qualitative and quantitative vector data
“Each company will need to embed a different formula for defining vectors, For the content or the recommendations that you need to make that will have many different components that will be both qualitative and quantitative.”
Microsoft and ServiceNow report 50-75% developer productivity gains from AI
“So Microsoft and ServiceNow have said there's 50 to 75% increase in developer productivity.”
Assembly line mechanical robots replace about 2.5 human jobs
“The crudest, the crude analogy that we have, which is Or the best that we found is for a mechanical robot on an assembly line, how many humans jobs does that robot replace? And the answers are about 2.5.”
Google's generative search queries initially cost 10x more than standard queries
“Well, Google, when they initially released search, their generative search experience, the cost to serve a query was 10 X a standard one.”
Expect major data stack vendor consolidation in the coming quarters
“So I think you'll see quite a lot of consolidation in the next couple of quarters.”
Databricks SQL product line hit $200M in revenue and is doubling
“Databricks, the SQL products, two hundred million in revenue doubling.”
$50M+ startup acquisitions take 12-18 months of internal championing
“So when someone buys a business, not an acquihire, but let's say like 50 to fifty million plus, someone in a company, in the acquiring company is saying, I am betting my career, effectively, in this company, that we should buy this company at this price. And t…”
Tunguz: VC funding peaked at $300B in 2021, fell to $175B
“Venture capital, like it hits peak, I think in 21 at 300 and then it fell to one 75.”
Top three cloud providers spend $60B to $70B quarterly on CapEx
“Yeah, 60 to seventy billion per quarter now. From the top three clouds, which it's and it just keeps going up”
OpenAI inference pricing drops 160x between model generations
“If you look at the pricing page for, like, OpenAI, and you look at the 4.5 turbo, and the cost per inference, and compare it to the next most recent model, there's a 160 X difference in pricing.”
Spun out, the top three cloud providers would be worth $2.5T
“So, if you look at web two infrastructure you take the top three clouds by size, and you were, hypothetically, spin them out as separate mark, as separate public companies. It'd be worth about 2.5 trillion.”
Average enterprises review under 1% of 5,000 to 7,000 daily security alerts
“We just invested in a company that's automating security analysis for the average enterprise of 75 security products. Each of those security products produces Alerts about 5000 to 7000 alerts per company per day. Less than one percent are reviewed.”
80% of cloud database query workloads are under 100 megabytes
“80% of the, those workloads are less than a hundred megs in size.”
Looker originally brought Snowflake into sales deals before momentum inverted
“When Looker went to market, we initially partnered with Snowflake, and we were bringing Snowflake into deals, and that worked really well, and then Snowflake started to grow really fast, and Snowflake was bringing Looker into deals, and so so why is this?”