Jeremy Howard, co-founder of Answer.ai, addresses predictions about artificial superintelligence (ASI) and whether recent model advances provide genuine evidence of nearing AGI.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Howard: Closed US AI ecosystems will cause China to move faster
“Whereas, oddly, the US companies that used to lead the way have all drawn up the drawbridges, and that's gonna cause China to keep moving faster, because when you're in that more, both collaborative and competitive environment, you just Go way ahead, as we've …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Howard: OpenAI compute spending grows exponentially while model utility scales logarithmically
“They kept on kind of exponentially increasing the amount they were spending on their models, whilst the Return, you know, the kind of utility of those models was only increasing logarithmically, and you kind of very quickly hit this point where it's like, oh, …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Howard: Test-time compute scaling will hit diminishing returns within two years
“It's a thing where you get most of the juice out of it in the first year or two, so we're still in that. Phase at the moment, and we'll start to hit the curve off point pretty soon. Just like we did for training.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Howard: AI growth will continue tailing off as low-hanging fruit disappears
“The amount of people and money being put into AI, it's going to keep going up, but again, the low hanging fruits being done now. So yeah, I think we'll continue to see the tailing off of growth.”
Opinion
Howard: Traditional AI labs favor paper citations over bold innovation
“It's very different to a research lab, which is like, hey, let's try and get lots of citations on a paper in a field that's so highly recognizable to its peers that they recognize it as being something they want to appear at their next conference, you know, wh…”
Opinion
Howard: Autonomous AI coding agent Devin produces low-quality, useless software
“Devon's an agent you know, a bunch of tools, tool calls, and tied together with an OpenAI model, if I understand correctly. Yeah, and it actually ended up definitely supporting our thesis, which is, there are so many places we wished we could have got involved…”