AI

“The key element in this form of intelligence is your ability to build models of the world, predictive models of the world. And that's what we're missing. Okay. That's what we need to figure out how to do with machines.”

“There is no intelligence without learning. And in the engineering world, it's almost true as well. And it's probably because I'm either lazy or not smart enough to, that I think that as human engineers, we cannot actually directly conceive and construct an int…”

“And the answer to this is probably no, or at least not to the same extent that we had in the past, because there's a big industry now behind behind AI.”

“It's taking certain tasks. It's not leading to mass unemployment, but it is shifting the demand for different types of skills, and so there are places where there's less demand and there's more demand, and wages in some areas are depressed when a machine can d…”

“And once you have a system that actually has real emotions, that opens up all kinds of new system vulnerabilities that a bad actor might use to get the system to do things that it shouldn't be allowed to do.”

“So I'm pretty confident that we'll have models of the world, internal ideas about how the world works. I don't see how to build an AI without it.”

“If you talk about another domain, like language synthesis, it turns out that current systems can make very convincing language, but it's often bullshit. That doesn't matter in the same way in art. So in, if you have a system make up a news story, even if it's …”

“There's no machinery in our brains innately to tell us the difference between a person and machine. And what happens is that in evolutionary perspective, anything that could talk was probably a person, right?”

“Despite all the hype about, you know, we're so close to solving AI or whatever. We're not, we're facing the same problems.”

“I think it probably will change art. I think in general that humans are still going to be like the creative inspiration and are often going to be filtering things.”

“And this is where I think Amazon has, and many of the tech giants have this key innovation, which is that they're starting to use artificial intelligence to minimize the amount of execution work, to make room for idea work, right?”

“Now, I think it's believable that in the next 20 years, you could have the smallest nations in the world doing something like that, or trying.”

“I think at the end of the day, we don't need to be worried about the AI nearly as much as people using AI as a tool to enact totally human perversions on the rest of the world. It's going to be religious extremists who decide that they're going to use this to …”

“Are we playing God with AI? Maybe a little bit but I actually wish we were playing God more. I wish we were just straight up, you know, hauling other species up into sentience. Let's, like, humans have done pretty well. Let's bring some other guys along for th…”

“Artificial intelligence number one is algebra on steroids. Just so we're clear. It is a very big field of study. And when you get out of microscope and you like look down inside the computer, you cannot find the AI in there anywhere. It's just math.”

“The plane that flew you here flew itself almost the entire way using artificial intelligence, and we all rely on artificial intelligence every day, whether we realize it or not.”

“I think that the world is overrun with serious problems. I would put at the top of that list, climate change. Nowhere close to second place. I would put nuclear weapons, just since we use that as an example, and I would put AI doing something particularly horr…”

“It seems very low to me, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if just the, ah, AI part of our cloud computing business was larger than the rest of AWS combined in a couple years.”

“In my mind, one of the key ingredients for believable AI, for referenceable AI, is a great search retrieval system that sets the context for how a language model is going to generate answers.”

“AI job loss is something that we're seeing from companies that are weak anyway. They're gonna have to do layoffs anyway. And they go to the market and they say, listen, we have to do these job cuts and we're replacing our employees with their, with AI. Oftenti…”

“I think the only way that we're gonna see consultants tell us that we are redundant is gonna because, gonna be because our companies are failing, not because AI has replaced us and is good enough to do our work.”

“The AI is not gonna kill us, ok? Not happening.”

“We're going to move from big models to smaller models. Big models inefficient, smaller models efficient. We're going to go from Arnold Schwarzenegger models to Danny DeVito models.”

“I am predicting that we're going to move from broad to narrow use cases of AI.”

“Okay, prediction five, that we are about to see the world's greatest copyright battle.”

“My first prediction is that OpenAI, which is the leader in the field today, is going to lose the throne. That's right. OpenAI will lose the throne. It will still factor in, but it's not going to be the leader in the field that it is today.”

“Effective altruism is a group of people who believe in sort of doing as much good as possible with this sort of like data driven analysis approach... And why they have largely adopted this idea that although they think we should be developing artificial intell…”

“The effective accelerationists, on the other hand, believe that we should just go all out, no breaks, develop as quickly as we can without any real regard for the risks, and that it will all just sort of work itself out because of some philosophy that they sor…”

“The idea that effective acceleration is now will be dictating the future of this entire field, I think is is it's something that risks becoming sort of a self fulfilling prophecy where we now give these people far more attention and sort of you know, weight to…”

“We've been seeing this framing of the AI debate as being between the effective altruists and the effective accelerationists, as though those are the two sides of the debate. When in reality, that is a very small portion and it's a very extreme and very loud po…”

“I think they're gonna rely and care more about their relationship with someone in the media more and more, and care more about high quality information in a world of, like, massive amounts of generated content. So I think it should be net good, but it will be …”

“But next they have, like, the world's best chief of staff. And then after that, every person has, like, a company of 20 or 50 experts that can work super well together. And then after that, everybody has a company of 10,000 experts in every field that can work…”

“A GPU, instead, is really built for a very specific class of workloads, and generally those have been called throughput workloads, so it does lots of floating point processing and matrix operations, You know, and so it's very dedicated for things like graphics…”

“Yeah, and it very much is that way, and Jensen and I, you know, we've known each other for 35 years, you know, this general purpose workload, and we always are adding more capabilities to the CPU, but over here, it was always just go really fast for graphics, …”

“So the first time, for the first time, we have had intelligence outside Google, like artificial intelligence outside Google, that's of higher quality than what is inside Google.”

“Our hopper GPUs, for example, have a lot of circuits in them that were designed by AI that we built ourselves that have better speed and power and cost characteristics than we knew how to build with any other tool.”

“And I think that the primary way that people are going to interact with AI is going to be in virtual worlds. Because I think that's going to be the most natural way of interaction in the most useful way.”

“We're still so at the beginning, the early phases of this thing that it is moving faster than Moore's law. By a lot.”

“Just because something is able to articulate its reason for doing, for getting to an answer, doesn't mean that it is necessarily reasoning.”

“And they have to contend with a significant complex bureaucracy that is not really well attuned for the velocity that AI is running at right now.”

“My guess is it's that latter task where you're asking the AI to act more like an agent on your behalf, really representing you. I think it's gonna be really important for people that in that world that they have a, they are able to have a presence that isn't c…”

“AI is coming. It's going to change search in a really profound way. And Google still is, in my view, the company that's best positioned to be the leader in search at the end of this wave as it is right now. But it's going to mean leaning back into that, that o…”

“I think there's a couple of things that are going to happen in the AI space, if I had to guess. I think that we will see that when you're doing work and really conversing one-on-one with the with the AI, I think you're ultimately going to want to have low pers…”

“I think that there is, I think that originality and newness is, is a real thing. And I think that there's a lot that people can bring to bear. I think that some of what you're saying will happen. But I don't think it's going to overall be the overarching trend…”

“Why they have to partner with someone. They don't collect information the way the others do. They're not information thieves the way the others are.”

“And I think those who resist it and just sort of, you know, bemoan their fate or destined to fail, that's for sure.”

“He, if he had the right people, they would have said AI is where we need to focus mark a long time ago.”

“Intelligence is going to be constantly getting better, but it is going to be human assisted. Ah, ah, intelligence assisting humans is going to be the future, rest my guess.”

“One, I don't think we are anywhere close to yet hitting that wall yet. So I do think we are going to actually see a lot of net new innovations when it comes to optimizing how to actually train these models in parallel and get better Utilization so that we can …”

“If you start changing with trading with Rocket Mortgage data, you might just get a better application for Rocket Mortgage. You're not gonna advance the field of AI by getting mortgage data in there.”

“Well, I was going to say that I think one thing that's challenging about AI is that we're in this giant experimental phase. And I think when you think of like, Experimental and like people don't have a clear notion of what to do. You don't think of us like pre…”

“It'll certainly change jobs in a bunch of ways. But it's not going to be some instant, like, or drastic automation thing, at least in the next few years. It's going to be more like augmenting jobs or making people a lot more effective.”

“My bet is that you're going to see new companies get formed, which do a lot more with a lot less in terms of people. They're going to figure out how to be, like, much smarter and perform a lot better than that than equivalently scaled companies that don't use …”

“And I mean, I'm still expecting a great future because of AI. My expectation is like the median outcome is good. I think we should worry about the cases where things go really off the rails and do what we can to reduce the odds of that.”

“So I think in the world where AI continues to get much better at a fast pace, I think you're looking at a much more involved. I guess I'm trying to say the players will be nation state level players, because that's also the kind of funding you'll need to keep …”

“If AI substitutes for people can increase the effective population of a country, then you can imagine that it would just be a huge leverage that a country would have over other countries in terms of Its own economic output, or even its ability to withstand geo…”

“And I don't think it's going to take, you know, from jobs because those startups previously, just like they actually were not hiring those people. They were just sort of stuck In whatever they were currently doing at a certain scale that they were at.”

“AI as an example, this is, you know, three to five years out for this idea, but like if AI can basically do the things you know, that, that are usually those first steps to just getting started with the business. That, that I didn't have access to before becau…”

“Having it assess those articles and identify those errors, and then even sometimes draft an email to the journalist to ask them to correct it. It's like a nice, it's a nice thing to avoid that manual work and spend time on something.”

“My belief though, if you ask me, is that like, I don't know, like maybe 70% is AI and 30% is automation or fifty-fifty. Yeah, but I still think it is that much, actually. That's still my belief, right?”

“So I think that, like, even though maybe the first iteration would only have been a substantial improvement compared to some other companies, if you give it one or two more years, it will definitely be an improvement versus what any other company is doing with…”

“In fact, I'd say, you know, AI has created more work for developers because now somebody has to build all these AI systems, and we're not At all at a point where you can just, you know, have an AI engineer, quote unquote do the job of a human, like that doesn'…”

“And I think AI is going to accelerate that massively. And, you know, one billion developers by 2030 or so is a little bit under 10% of the population, depending on where the world's population is going. That's actually a low number if you think about it, becau…”

“And I would, I'm not too worried about, you know, AI taking over these shops and replacing them with a fully automated employee.”

“And we still have code. Look, look, the AI and the you know, Copilot is not going to replace the code. The code is just lower in the abstraction level in the same way that, you know, your chip in your computer still has an instruction set, you know, we used to…”

“I believe so. Yeah. I said actually two years ago at a conference that my prediction back then was 80% of code is going to be written by AI in five years. So I guess I have three years to go to, for that to become true.”

“As soon as we have, you know, AI programming, AI Then liftoff occurs, you know, near, near immediately.”

“Ray Kurzweil's prediction is 2030, which is insanely close, right? Why? It's because AI is going to help us understand why we age, how to slow it, how to stop it, how to reverse it. George Church puts it at some 15 years out. David Sinclair is in that same are…”

“Ultimately, I believe that it is going to need to be decentralized and democratized. And I don't believe that we're going to have one central company control this.”

“I think the only countervailing force there is going to be humanoid robotics and AI that's going to allow us to support that aging population.”

“I think AI will become ultimately the best educator on the planet and the best diagnostician on the planet available on your mobile phone. And I think that educator Again, the best on the planet will be available for free to the poorest child and the wealthies…”

“I don't think AI on its own is going to be dystopian. I think it's the human use of AI that could be dystopian.”

“It's going to continue to increase, and there's no reason to believe it's not going to get a hundred times or a thousand times or a million or a billion times more powerful than the average human.”

“AI and longevity are the two biggest business opportunities on the planet. There's nothing of greater opportunity, right?”

“And what we're going next is the ability to model your cell in AI and then your tissue and then your organ and then you And no, this drug works for you, and this drug does not work for you.”

“This isn't playing out in your kid's lifetime or in 10 years, this is playing out in the next two to five years.”

“We often define our sense of self-worth on, on the idea of being a contributor. Like you're a breadwinner, or you make like a positive difference in the lives of your friends or of society at large. You're like, you bring value to the world. So much of our exi…”

“There is this phenomenon that like, before it is done, it looks really hard. Once AIs have done it, then we kind of quickly forget how, just how like impressive it was and just take it for granted.”

“I think some of the, Impetus for effective accelerationism comes from that kind of cumulative frustration. And then it's applied to AI in particular.”

“So I think there is like the real X risks, existential risks that will arise as we develop and possibly not even super intelligence, but you could imagine even something short of that, making it very easy to develop new weapons of mass destruction in using syn…”

“AI, you know, the goal of AI has all along been not just to automate a few specific things, but to provide the technology that allows us to automate all tasks, right? Like AI hasn't really succeeded until all intellectual labor can be done by machine.”

“I think about it like a glide path, right? Where in the early days you might have the humans doing a hundred percent of the work, and then over time you start to have the model maybe suggest what the person might want to pick or come up with ideas in a sort of…”

“It will become a really important component of making a business more productive, but it will be really hard to measure exactly how it does that in numbers.”

“AI itself, will it make money itself, the model, and LLM? Some will, I believe, but not in the scale that we're looking at. Really, it's going to come down to where we apply the AI, and it doesn't matter which sector it is.”

“We really thought early on when we were developing these, even until maybe a year ago, it was going to be holograms and then at some point later, AI. And in fact, it's going to be the opposite. The AI is going to come first. It's already come to the Meta Ray-B…”

“My point is the expectations on the part of our employers are just going to go up as we become more tech enabled. So we're doing more, not necessarily being paid more. And many of us are going to reach the point where the quote unquote co-pilot actually should…”

“I think that these companies cannot compete with tech companies by being more tech. And maybe that limits their growth over time. The only way to possibly compete with big tech and to compete with AI is to be more human, right? It's to make people feel good. L…”

“I think in the case of AI, its ability to effectively ape humanity Is what sets it apart from prior waves of technology.”

“Yes, companies are going to become fabulously profitable as they institute all this amazing technology that's coming down the pike, and it's already happening, and of course, we're gonna get rid of a lot of busy work that people should not be doing anymore if …”

“We might be in the first fear-based Investment bubble ever. Normally when you have an investment bubble, it's greed. In this case, there's an element of, I better invest in this.”

“Now, long-term services, I do think is going to be a home run. I think AI is going to be an absolute home run for the apps business.”

“The second is that it's our view, regardless of timing, next 1218 months, 20% of the world ultimately is going to access AI, especially as more developers build apps through an Apple device.”

“I don't see a step change coming, but I see a steady continuous course towards very high accuracy, very high reliability AI.”

“Even if, you know, like just as a hypothetical even if the technology froze and what we have today is all we get, there's so much good to be done. There is so much work to go do. To implement this technology across the economy really boost productivity, drive …”

“I do think the human need for having someone to believe in an actual artist that you care about, I don't think Taylor Swift will be Replace by an AI, not because the music couldn't sound similar, but because the whole point is Taylor Swift and belonging to som…”

“But the truth is that much of music being made per day made today is a combination. I think many of the big artists are using AI for parts of their songs or parts of the track or the drums, et cetera.”

“I do think nuclear is gonna play a role, and you joked about it, but with the growth of AI and the energy needs for that, there's going to be, I think, reinvestment in that technology.”

“Is our grid in good enough shape to sustain all these at once? RJ Scaringe: Absolutely not. No, no. It's I mean, that's the thing that makes this such a unique moment in time.”

“I think quantum computing is on kind of like the way AI was back in 2018. It's on a few scaling laws where you can definitely sort of squint and see that, you know, in five to 10 years, this is going to be A really, really impactful technology.”

“If you can do that with a letter, you can do it with a word. If you can do it with a word, you can do it with a sentence. You can do it with a sentence. Maybe you could do it with whole strings of sentences, of code, of like complex ideas. I don't think we're …”

“Yeah, I'd absolutely do it.”

“The process of education is based on World War II supply chain economics, which don't exist right now. And so kids are going through education platforms that are not designed for the future. They're not designed for AI. They're not designed for social media.”

“So when I look at AI, I see something that yes, is very expensive to train, but when you look at the fact that it's a general purpose technology and that we are finding more and more things to do with it, I do believe that at least one of these companies is go…”

“Usually, enabling technology does not make a lot of money.”

“10 years, 15 years, I think it will happen. So then, all the sci-fi movies that we are seeing hopefully, maybe robots helping us at home, it may not be a stretch.”

“Actually, I don't agree that apps will disappear, and here's why. If you have a four, let's say you have a 30 different apps, in theory, you don't need 30 apps. You need, maybe, if all these vendors and companies work together for one single app, that can do e…”

“Eventually, there will be a lot of the application-focused startups or vertical-focused startups that leverage, say, I think that's sort of really real market is, but I also understand, without infrastructure, we cannot get there.”

“Five years from now, we will, first of all, see major industries that have formed in each of these market verticals that are dominating those verticals. And we'll also have seen some incredible new science come out. Biotech with cancer treatments and discovery…”

“The companies that new startups are coming in previously maybe took 10 people to start a company, decent you know, ramp up. Now they can do it, you know, one person or two. Basically that's because it makes easier for startups to do what they did using enterpr…”

“So the only way to solve it is by creating the tech that's even more powerful than the one that came before. And I do think AI is that”

“There are different techniques, but there isn't really a textbook that every therapist follows, unless you're in CBT, and that I think is pretty easy to replicate.”

“With the AI revolution is all of us will have a coding co-pilot and assistant on our PC, on our phone, that will help us do these things, and so when we think about, like, you know, how do we accomplish some kind of professional task, how we do information gat…”

“You'll need to understand the concepts of kind of code, but AI will be the, Kind of generation a massive generator, a massive quality assurance checker, a bunch of other things. You'll still want to be learning the kind of, as it were, the pattern of the compu…”

“When you think about what AI is going to bring to the transformation of human life and human work, the investments will, I think, seem small. In retrospect”

“A classic one with AI is say, well, this is going to change a lot of jobs. And it will, cause it's a kind of a new tool set, like a new tool set. Like if you say, Hey, I'm a professional today and I don't use smartphones and I don't use computers. It's like, n…”

“And our thesis is that from all the AIs we're going to create into the future, the most valuable ones are going to be the ones that can interact with our physical world.”

“We've done the same with biological weapons and chemical weapons. Largely, they haven't been used, even though the technologies existed there. And so I think that's a that's a good indicator of what's, how, how, how we should deal with this new technology, thi…”

“At this point, I believe in a few years, we're going to get to a level of a physics understanding with our AIs that are, that's going to unlock, you know, the majority of the applications we need to apply them in, in robotics.”

“I think intelligence is something that is probably the most endless of all, all computing problems. If we can throw more compute at the problem, we can make more intelligence and do it better and better. So making, making AI more efficient, Will just increase …”

“I had always, up until recently, been of the opinion that AI is not replacing reporters. Can't do what I do. Can't be there asking the questions. Certainly can't have an engaging conversation like in a podcast. And now I've fully rethought that.”

“I know people who have gone to job interviews, to meetings, where they encounter an AI when they do not expect to encounter an AI, and I think we're gonna see more and more of that in the next months, years.”

“On the one hand, you know, for years, everyone keeps telling me we're going to conquer driving, we're going to conquer driving. I'm like, no, you're not. It's just literally not going to happen anytime soon.”

“So we're going to see literal walls begin to go up, much tighter export control, a recognition that these companies and this technology is vital and of interest.”

“I think that in the long term, we may view the Trump years at the second administration as the AI presidency in terms of the way that our economy and our life and all of that were transformed.”

“So basically I see AI as a way for us to kind of also be the user interface. Like the conversation could be the user interface and AI actually gives us that promise. Like if you think about it in the past like just people have been having trouble using softwar…”

“And I think it's our job to be using AI to analyze the output of what their AI built to see, is it policy compliant? And so we take that responsibility. We take the responsibility of making sure you can predict and trust the policy adherence of what is on our …”

“It's an excellence that makes products work very well with their custom silicon and the fact that their operating system is closed and they control it. That's a great innovation and it works well with their operating system. But that type of excellence is not …”

“This has been a gradual thing that's been going on for many years as the company has sort of scaled back on innovation, really leaned on the fact that it's walled garden. Some might call it a monopoly. And it really, I think used that marketing power, that goo…”

“No, not, not in the current form. I mean, and whatever form of AI would be able to do that will not be LLMs. They might use LLMs as one component.”

“Beyond the impressive demos, actually deploying systems that are reliable is where things tend to falter in, in the use of computers and technologies and particularly AI. This is not you. It's basically you know, why we had super impressive, you know, autonomo…”

“So, I don't think AI poses a risk of extinction like today, ok? I don't think that they're powerful enough to do that. They, because they can't make PowerPoints yet, right? They don't have Agential skills. They can't accomplish tasks that require many hours to…”

“In the shorter term when AIs get more agential, I'd be concerned about AIs causing cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, possibly by as directed by a rogue actor. There'd also be the risk of AIs facilitating the development of bioweapons in particular pand…”

“But talking on timing, I do think what this is also showing is that the euphoria and the unquestioned money spigot for AI is over.”

“I think it's going to fundamentally change. I think instead of browsing 10 blue links, you're just going to ask your AI. It's going to give you a super succinct answer, show you images, maps, videos, all in the feed. You're going to give feedback and be like, …”

“It requires people to change the way they work, and we want to drive daily usage of AI, and because it change, needs to change the way they work, you want them to get used to using it. If, hey, this group of users in a company gets it, that group of users is n…”

“First and foremost, in the long run, if AI really scales, the cost you really want to care about is inference cost, because that's what's integrated into serving, and any company that wants to recover the cost of training has to have a large scale inference fo…”

“Over half of the fortune 500 companies in their most recent annual financial reports cited AI as a risk factor.”

“I think it will take years. I mean, that's one of the things that when we think about the transformative power of this technology, the transformation takes quite some time always. So even if this does become a thing everywhere in the tech industry for normal c…”

“A lot of companies now are not hiring their most junior level because they're turning some of this over to AI.”

“This is going to cause dislocation the same way, like, In the nineties, globalization and more low cost manufacturing, we're feeling the effects. 30 plus years later. So like, it's not like this stuff is not going to cause some kind of dislocation.”

“And also alpha fold is actually a neurosymbolic model, and it's probably the best thing that AI ever did.”

“And we know now that AI is the number one use according to a recent study is companionship and therapy, and the therapy side really scares me, and I think the companionship isn't the best thing in the world either.”

“So the ability to be general and here I'm thinking of the work of Dr. Tamik Gibru is not an engineering practice. That's an unscoped system. So what Dr. Gibru says is the first step in engineering is your specifications. What is it that you're building? If wha…”

“Anybody who's a computer scientist should not be retired right now, should be working on AI.”

“We are, like, aware of the fact that we often are our worst enemy, and we shoot ourselves in the foot ourselves, and we're going to get bigger guns like, metaphorically with all this AI stuff. Which is going to make it very easy to have this tempting stuff com…”

“People always look for a new technique, but we have old techniques, and I would say they're still the best we have. So AI is not going to, I mean, I'm not looking for something that suddenly makes it easy. It's always going to be a bit hard, but we already kno…”

“Now, is this something that you could see happen over 20, 30 years? If the technology keeps accelerating at the pace it's been accelerating, which is an open question, maybe, but this idea that we're going to see it within one to five years, that just doesn't …”

“I think that conflates two different things, because on one side, almost by definition, this should allow for more deep work. This is taking care of the more monotonous, repetitive things people did, instead of having to rewrite an entire code base from scratc…”

“My theory on this is Entry level jobs are actually going to be safer because they're going to become different. And the type of workforce that's going to be entering the market is going to be a lot more AI native than a lot of existing, especially more senior …”

“Yeah, this still feels a bit like marketing hype for me”

“In a way, AI is a new UI, right? Like, and It's weird to think about in, in that way. But it really sort of, you need to, I think, think about it in that way. And so if you're trying to cram AI into sort of the older paradigms of UI and thinking like, oh, we n…”

“When I say two out of five stars, I'm giving Apple, you know, a little bit of benefit of the doubt here, just because, like, it easily, I really think, could have been a zero out of five stars, given how little they had to talk about AI.”

“I would say that I don't think that they'll have everything solved by 2026 by any means, but I do think I. I've heard enough sort of and done enough triangulating where I feel like they're at least now have the appropriate fires lit under their asses to get, y…”

“There's just gonna be discomfort there, and people are going to keep attacking these things.”

“One name you probably didn't mention but should be considered an AI winner is Netflix.”

“Everything's gonna peak at the same time, probably one third into the cycle, but then in that period of consolidation and shakeout, then one or two industries truly pull away and capture the value again.”

“But that's different in my opinion than AI is driving the stock market. Like it's driving the narrative, but it's not necessarily driving the market.”

“Not a hundred percent of tech spend is AI. A lot of it is maintenance CapEx and expansion CapEx and, you know, the catch up for spending that's been deferred because of COVID, et cetera.”

“The bubble bursts in AI. And I think that's going to happen for sure.”

“Apple might Do what they did in, oh, two and seven. They weren't cutting edge and making the first mobile phone, but they, in 2007, after the bubble burst, introduced the iPhone, and so, maybe they'll wait for AI valuations to come down, or the, you know, the …”

“I think he said actually like in March, within a year, all of code will be written by AI or basically all of code. I mean, that's probably not gonna come true.”

“Like if you're a new company today, if you're a new like software startup, like your code base is totally AI. Like it's probably a hundred percent written by AI and you've developed it in this way that it's sort of readable, searchable by AI so that it can mak…”

“This is complete hooey, and they all come up with really huge percentage, like, 40%, 60% of your jobs are gonna be replaced by AI, so, you know, every, there's a million groups doing this, and they'll come up with different things, and it's hooey for a number …”

“So we saw this thing where IBM fired all these people because it thought they could replace their jobs with AI and then had to hire them all back, had to hire like a ton of people back. Maybe not the exact same people, not doing the exact same things, but for,…”

“Unofficial measure suggests that less than 10% of American companies employ AI to produce goods and services, so AI is probably not big enough to have, like, a major impact yet there.”

“Eventually we may like people will come along and say, you know what? I could just organize my company entirely different to take more advantage of AI. And I don't just have to replace my humans with AI. I just have the humans do different things and the AI do…”

“Returning to a measure reintroduced in two, 20, 23, we examine American data on employment by occupation, singling out workers that are believed to be vulnerable to AI. These are white collar employees, including people in back office support, financial operat…”

“The sycophantic AI is that is, is the greatest limiter to like actual true intelligence or reasoning.”

“Even if you stopped right now, you'd still have, you know, massive amounts of economic gain get delivered from what we've already created.”

“I am one who believes that if somebody's going to win the race on these frontier technologies, it had better be a democracy. Because if something goes wrong in AI, and it's quite possible that something will, as a matter of fact, it's probable that something w…”

“If you have AI that replaces a friend for you, or is your companion, you would easily, I mean, pay 20 dollars a month, I think that would be an easy subscription to charge.”

“The information reported a few months ago that Salesforce does not expect any growth from AI this year. That is absolutely bonkers for a company that's rebranded, and I paraphrase here, as an agent first company.”

“I actually think that, you know, as the revenues, as the economic business of AI ramps up and it's ramping up exponentially, you know, if I'm right in a couple years, it'll be the biggest source of revenue in the world, right? It'll be the biggest industry in …”

“And then I do think eventually the way that it plays out is that then you have AI reading those emails on the other end and sort of, it ends up these bots sort of writing to other bots and then sending you like a to do list of whatever needs the action items n…”

“If you're needing to catch up in AI, you're spending seventy five billion dollars plus a year on infrastructure. The amount that you're spending on people is going to be even, even with these hundred million dollar contracts is going to be such a small subset …”

“And so I feel like when we use technology to free up time, we're just going to do more work, you know, in different ways with that time. I don't think that everyone's just going to be sitting around like Wally, you know, watching the videos on our hovercraft t…”

“I don't think it'll replace GPs, but what I think it helps people do is become, have more agency in their journey a little bit more control over their, you know, the process of managing care.”

“We're going to want to have hyper-customized podcasts that are in exactly the voice that we find the most reassuring and AIs are going to create that for us.”

“At the end of the day, who wins in the AI risk is whoever has the access to the most data. And I just think that the good guys are always going to have access to a lot more data than the bad guys.”

“I believe today that 99 out of, cents out of every dollar spent on AI is just being lit on fire. But that one cent that's out there Is gonna generate real returns.”

“So they're going more to a podcast, they're going more to forums, they're going more to social posts, and less away from some of the traditional media. And so some of what people are assuming is about what's happening with AI is actually more about the shifts …”

“Most of the brain is, is actually not relevant for communicating with the outside world or with artificial intelligence. Most of the brain is taking care of the body and not in ways that are Particularly relevant to interfacing with the outside world.”

“I think the, just like any tool you know, you can cut yourself with a knife in the kitchen. You know, you don't have to tear things apart with your hands. Right. It's, you know, oh geez, we've lost the talent of tearing things apart with our hands cause we've …”

“This is not a panacea type of solution where you could take an existing workflow, drop AI directly into it, and then all of a sudden that workflow will be, you know, three X better. You usually do have to re-engineer the work to take advantage of AI.”

“For the first time ever with AI, we can bring automation to effectively all of that work. And that automation can kind of be tuned based on just how much compute we throw at the problem.”

“As long as you are really good about what context you're giving the AI and how you are effectively grounding the AI in trustworthy data with the right kinds of prompts and a high enough quality model. you can nearly eradicate the, you know, all of, if not th…”

“Like if Pfizer or Eli Lilly took a little bit longer to adopt AI as a result of, you know, wanting to be more pragmatic, that'll be totally fine. They're not going to get disrupted. Like they have enough of market position. They have enough distribution. They …”

“Even the rapidly adopted internet took around five years to hit adoption rate that AI has reached in just two years.”

“In the US alone, Anthropik says, 40% of employers report using AI at work, up from 20% in 2023, two years ago.”

“When we think about AI, it's not all new. It's new software. It's existing infrastructure. And when we think about securing it, the basics apply. And it's very important to remember it. The fundamentals apply. The fundamentals of patching vulnerabilities, secu…”

“And now with AI, the interesting thing that the threat actors can automate a lot more, but from a defense perspective, it doesn't give me the same order of magnitude of, let's say, improvement that the threat actor can gain. So, in essence, there is an aggrava…”

“Actually, when we look at AI related incidents, the majority of them is within this layer of Using the infrastructure in an insecure manner that allows threat actors to just do what they are used to do in cloud in the past.”

“AI is another layer that allows us to automate more right now. Okay, I'm not talking, because we're not seeing the crazy new threats yet, we are right now at the phase where we're seeing accelerated automation of the known threats, known risks, and this is a j…”

“There was an MIT study that 95% Of businesses that are trying to implement AI aren't doing so profitable with profitability.”

“AI certainly helping you quickly evaluate should you buy something, trying to like streamline the document process between counterparties and buying real estate. Like that should completely remove real estate brokers from the economy.”

“With AI, we're still more supply constrained than we are demand constrained. And I think I, you know, I expect that to continue over the next couple of years as the technology continues to evolve and as people start to integrate AI into more and more workflows…”

“I think that if you're a creator that's making money on good looks, You might be in trouble. You might now see an AI, there already are AI versions of people who are doing like thirst trap content and they're gonna commoditize that. So also this just sort of l…”

“I think it's less that there's a lot of social media sort of oriented folks that have now moved into AI. It's more that I think a lot of the best product people were focused on that, you know, even four years ago, you know, pre-chat GPT you know, pre the emerg…”

“If you get to, like, 50% as good as you would have done yourself, I don't think that's good enough, and it won't speed you up. And in fact, it's like, I don't know, I could have just done this myself, and now, now, then at least I would have known what it's do…”

“I think people end up feeling more like managers of AI than just users of AI.”

“And you know, more importantly right now, AI, we're in a world where, where AI is not good at calculating things yet. So generally you're having to spin up a virtual machine and run Python or something on there. To actually perform those spreadsheet calculatio…”

“AI is like, I'm a total optimist in AI, but it's not there yet in a lot of ways. And it certainly is, is also very, it's very costly. It's pretty, pretty slow and it's ripe for errors. If you don't give it a bunch of guardrails,”

“That's where I see the real value coming from is, is where AI is really just providing the value automatically or asking you and confirming you that to provide the value, but it's just doing it there. You shouldn't have to go invoke AI to realize the value fro…”

“Is SAS going away or is the graphical user interface going away? It's not going away. There's still a lot of good use cases for it”

“As you know, Alex, like this technology can work, you know, maybe five times out of 10, seven times, nine times out of 10. But in business, you know, you need that predictability and that assurance that it's not going to mess with your brand. It's not going to…”

“The right reaction is, Hey, we're going to make a few mistakes along the way, but we got to let our people like get comfortable with this and use it in their daily workflows. And I feel like we're at that point with AI, we have to be careful. We don't want to …”

“As to whether it's going to create jobs or kill jobs, absolutely going to create jobs. There's so much unmet demand in our industry.”

“The problem is even a mediocre developer goes 10 times faster. And I'd like to think, you know, hey, we all want eight players, but the fact is you have Mixed level of competency in an organization and you give them all a lightsaber or like this jet pack where…”

“What we're finding with AI is it lets everybody go so much faster. Like, I mean, I think when we started out, we're like, can we go 20% faster, maybe 30% faster. I think it's like 10 x faster that we can move.”

“So I think this is not going to stop, and I also think the hyperscalers, all of their ambitions are so big and so broad, and they're all so pot committed, I don't think anyone's going to stop.”

“WorkSlop uniquely uses machines to offload cognitive work to another human being. When coworkers receive work slop, they are required to take on the burden of decoding that content. Like, to me, when you use AI to just create these just big walls of text to se…”

“There must be five or six percent of companies that are technically savvy to implement these technologies by itself, but therefore the rest of the people is like a jungle that is growing every day and doubling every day, in which you need to understand where t…”

“The initial version of AI was humans accelerated by AI. The next generation is AI supervised by humans.”

“So this idea that Our interactions with computers are going to change overnight. Seems at this point, I think we can safely say that that's not going to happen. It's going to take years to actually see this promise bear out.”

“I think it, to me, even the way I see the world going is, I actually think websites become less Relevant. Clicking around a website doesn't become that primary interaction that an AI has with that, the underlying information.”

“Mustafa did tell me that like, he believes that all AI is going to differentiate on the basis of personality.”

“Well, we're going to need many more researchers in all disciplines.”

“I'd be very curious to have an augmented brain, an AI augmented brain, and the ability to have a co-pilot that can help me navigate my life. So the idea of that's very intriguing, but for me, for that to be something I would actually do, I would need to have c…”

“It feels bigger than the introduction of the internet. It feels bigger than the shift to cloud. It is, we expect it to fundamentally transform how businesses operate and how humans operate.”

“Where people are getting confused is it just turns out there's a lot of writing that's only done for bullshit reasons, right? It's like I'm required to give a report or I have to pass some writing up to some bureaucracy, right? And so you're just checking the …”

“Writing is thinking and smart people like to think that's not going away when you have a thought and you put it under paper, put it, you know, type it out. Suddenly this, like all these subconscious, like feelings about that thought, all of your like life less…”

“If 96% of companies are trying AI, only about 30% of IT organizations have approved of what they're doing.”

“Just nine percent of respondents sent that all of their data was available. And only 38% said that most of the organization's data was available.”

“Certainly, there's a lot of money that's going to be lost in these investments. But I think what's going to happen is actually different, in that I think there's going to be, you know, a lot of companies that turn out not to be successful, but a very small num…”

“So it stands to reason you don't get the full benefit of AI until you enable that workforce.”

“I do think that Google's Just given all of the things that they have, it does feel like the quote unquote beast has awoken. And I feel like that they're in the best position right now to be able to capitalize on all of this stuff quite literally.”

“Like Xendesk has 20,000 people using some kind, 20,000 customers using some kind of AI.”

“Customer service is this human powered factory, right? The metrics are ones of throughput and effort. It's like tickets today, per day, time to first response. You know, all of these things where you're measuring productivity, average handle time. In an AI wor…”

“In some cases they're also fixing things that were just things that needed to be fixed pre-AI. They're just fixing it post-AI and it's sort of a bit of a, because it's happening post-AI, AI gets an effect.”

“Ultimately, I think legal is a precursor to AI swallowing professional services as an industry, and it's a bumpy road, but you know, lawyers do their homework, and I think that they'll net out looking pretty smart for doing so.”

“I think that the progress that's happening in AI is, is much better known than any of this, but it's still not priced in.”

“Probably not next year, but I think within the next decade. Wow. It's very possible that this stuff is going to get figured out in a meaningful way. I think like, 2035 will be a very, very different world than 2025.”

“I've always felt one of the noble aims of AI, Alex, is to transfer a cognitive burden from the human to the system at a time when the human feels that burden to be most heavy.”

“Building something in the, ah, in your engineering environment and then taking it to production is one step of it. Ah, what I've come to recognize is that's the first step in the AI stairway to heaven. Right? A lot of the action, a lot of the learning is actua…”

“Bolting AI onto the existing way of doing things I don't think is going to work well as redesigning stuff in this sort of like AI first world.”

“It's clear to see how everyone's gonna be managing, like, a lot of AIs doing different stuff.”

“AI is definitely gonna be able to do that. And we actually talk a lot about this. Like right now, memory is still very crude, very early. We're in like the, you know, the GPT-II era of memory, but what it's gonna be like when it really does remember every deta…”

“What I think should happen, of course, is that the AI should be able to generate different kinds of interfaces for different kinds of tasks. So if you are talking about your numbers, it should be able to show you that in different ways, and you should be able …”

“A lot more code without addressing the subsequent steps is almost a liability. It's not an asset for a company, right?”

“Still overseeing that AI, making most of the final decisions, but I think probably in two to three years, we're going to be at the place where AI is going to be making most of these decisions, and humans will be delegating, let's say, however, maybe decision f…”

“I do believe that, you know, we are probably a year away from AI becoming the driver of software, the same way, let's say, agents are the primary producer of code today. I think we're going to move to the same place in a year from now, where humans are going t…”

“So there are studies out there that showed, let's say, that the incidents where something went wrong, their new, new change has increased quite a bit as AI is being used.”

“I do believe we're still in an exponential improvement curve with AI. I think the models keep improving quite a bit because there was maybe a concern, maybe a few months ago, more like, you know, end of last year, I would say a year ago, whether let's say the …”

“I think by us producing more technology, I don't think the end state here is going to look something like where we have fewer software engineers”

“I would say that the single biggest challenge that we face when it comes to the trend in AI is power.”

“I think actually we're reaching this point in AI where it is still going to be the major topic of conversation, but I think the, I think some of the sort of novelty of it is, is wearing off now, and I think we'll see it kind of plateau, and then I think the pr…”

“We'll see a lot of these companies that are being kind of disrupted by AI, SaaS companies that are public get taken private by private equity companies.”

“I just think everyone's going to fall in love with their AIs. Not everyone, but I think there's going to be a love boom. That is my guess.”

“Twenty-twenty-six is gonna be both the best and worst year for AI. What I mean by that is, I think we're gonna see much more widespread adoption, major breakthroughs, but also I think the kind of like financial Arrangements that have been built and kind of tha…”

“If AI works, it's going to be more disruptive than I think. A lot of people imagine, because if it's going to pose this threat to the incumbent tech companies who've, by the way, they're the one putting all these, this capex into the equation, then what does i…”

“And so if you're just really tacking it onto your current products, that is not going to be what gets you to over the trillion dollar market cap pump or two trillion or three trillion, right? These companies that are out there right now that are sort of the su…”

“Even if you don't believe that there is likely a world in which a lot of just jobs are displaced and a lot of jobs are lost because of this technology. And that's not necessarily, as we've talked about before, it's not necessarily new in the history of all tec…”

“But if you ask an enterprise, did you actually make money out of it? They will in general say no. And the reason for that is that they are not customizing things enough and they are not thinking backward from the problem they want to solve.”

“We're in this age of individual empowerment where, you know, you're going to start to see a real divergence in terms of individual performance, probably more than we've ever seen it happen before. And organizations begun to be pressed by the people that are us…”

“No one is gonna book a ticket, let AI book the ticket for them for a long time.”

“And it'll force people because also people, if you're at an organization that doesn't adopt it, you don't want to work there and it's going to be the most talented people. So I think that all that kind of culture clashing will really come to a head this year.”

“I think what's going to happen is AI right now in the long run is going to be bigger than people think. It's probably under hype for the long run.”

“I think we've, it's like the industrial revolution, maybe 10 X of that, but we'll have to adapt again, and I think we'll find new meaning in things, and we do a lot of things already today that are not just for economic gain.”

“The idea that you should wait until it's perfect to do anything, I think is a death sentence for companies who have that, that mentality.”

“I think there'll be a period of consolidation. Well, that was always my joke. Your perspective on the dot-com bubble is very different if you went all in on buy.com versus amazon.com. And so you're gonna have some companies go out of business. I think more lik…”

“We are an inning two of this nine-inning game.”

“I think the importance of dashboards will go down. A point of a dashboard is so a human can stare at it and derive some insights. I think that probably AI can serve a very meaningful role in deriving insights from your data”

“I think we will see a set of things like that math conjecture that's proven where society outside of the realm of, like, my social circle starts to acknowledge the impact that AI's gonna have on science, and I think that will, in a good way, change the positiv…”

“In my lifetime, hopefully, 25 years from now, there will be things that today I wouldn't understand, and jobs I don't understand technologies that were hopefully discovered by AI”

“The early evidence From our work with Shinogi indicates that there is an ability for quantum to deliver better, faster trained models and aid in reducing power consumption.”

“If these entry level employees are able to use AI properly, they're skipping ahead to the level where they can actually be fully functioning analysts and they can essentially do 10 X the job with the tools.”

“So at that point, you just have so much of traditional software Can just be looked at as like a UI over a database. That's what's happening right now, and the market is finally actually coming to that realization.”

“These tools don't provide a ton of value. They, like, answered really specific problems, and that, like, software used to be take one really specific problem, own it, like, Charge people a lot of money to deliver relative value, but that's the kind of stuff th…”

“In any kind of knowledge work, any multi-step process, like anything that can call from different systems, write to those systems, come up with some analysis and insight, so much of that work is going to be done.”