Casey Newton pushes back against arguments that AI model builders are structurally unprofitable.
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Newton predicts Grammarly will be dead by the end of 2025
“Oh, can I give you a prediction? Grammarly dead by end of 2025.”
Opinion
Newton: Google's AI models are trained to 'teach to the test'
“Well, I have a conspiracy theory, which is you know kind of not great to be sharing on a podcast, but I'm gonna do it anyway, which is, I think Google is teaching to the test. You know what I mean? Yes. Like, I think that they know what the benchmarks are, and…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Newton: AI lab executives are setting expectations for linear progress in 2025
“So, based on the conversations that I've had with executives of the AI labs, it feels like people are trying to set expectations for more linear progress next year.”
Prediction Held up
Newton: Microsoft and OpenAI will stay partnered in 2025 despite tensions
“I mean, my, like, possibly contrarian take is, like, they just kind of muddle through. Like, that's kind of what I think that they're going to do. OpenAI needs Microsoft for the compute, the data centers, the, like, infrastructure of making AI. They're not goi…”
Opinion
Newton: Apple Intelligence is the flop of the year
“What I would say is Apple intelligence flop of the year.”
Opinion
Newton: Apple Intelligence is built for users two years behind cutting-edge AI
“If you're, like, a tech nerd, like we are, and you want to live in the future, and you want to, like, use tools to improve your life, you would not be using any of the Apple intelligence stuff, because it, like, it truly is aimed at somebody who is two years b…”