Jan 5, 2025 · 48m · big-technology
Bold Predictions For Tech and AI in 2025 — With Casey Newton
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
Tech journalist Alex Kantrowitz and Platformer's Casey Newton review the biggest technology trends of 2024 and share comprehensive predictions for 2025. Their conversation explores the future of AI agents, autonomous vehicles, Apple's product hurdles, quantum computing, and shifting regulatory policies.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Alex holds 39.1% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Alex as informed peer 5.0 Guest teaching 3.0 Guest disagreement 1.9 Alex pushing back 1.9
speaking balance: gold is Alex, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 43:38 Casey rejects the 'Year of Neuralink' premise
Casey directly pushes back on Alex's optimistic prediction about Neuralink's breakout year by citing firsthand interview evidence of sensor degradation in the first human trial.
Hardest push from Alex ▶ 7:07 Alex questions the AI agent consensusAlex deliberately stakes out a counter-consensus position, challenging Casey's forecast by arguing that enterprise and consumer use cases for autonomous agents remain unproven.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 38:42 Casey explains the engineering realities of quantum chipsCasey breaks down the physical constraints of quantum computing, drawing on his interview with Google hardware lead Julian Kelly to explain why proof-of-concept math proofs remain years away from practical deployment.
Alex holds their own ▶ 37:02 Alex demonstrates domain depth on e-commerce trade policyAlex demonstrates commanding knowledge of retail dynamics by citing Black Friday Gen Z purchasing stats and de minimis exemption mechanics, prompting Casey to openly concede Alex's deeper beat expertise.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Alex as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Alex pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Year in Review: AI Progress, Scaling Laws, and ROI | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Alex frames the 2024 AI narrative around lingering ROI doubts and asks Casey to evaluate tech progress versus real-world utility. Casey responds by putting OpenAI's 300 million weekly active users in historical Silicon Valley perspective and breaks down how test-time compute provides new scaling vectors despite diminishing traditional returns. | |
| 2025 AI Predictions: The Rise and Scrutiny of AI Agents | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | Casey predicts 2025 will be dominated by big labs rolling out AI agents. Alex actively counters the prevailing industry narrative by predicting agent hype will quickly fade due to user trust and limited clear use cases. | |
| AI as a Thinking Partner and Grammarly's Vulnerability | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Casey and Alex engage in a collaborative peer exchange detailing their practical LLM workflows as solo journalists. They both validate each other's use cases and agree that standalone tools like Grammarly are increasingly obsolete against Claude. | |
| Critiquing Apple Intelligence: Everyday Utility vs. Flop Status | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | Alex criticizes Apple Intelligence for solving executive-level problems rather than typical user needs. Casey forcefully agrees, labeling Apple Intelligence the flop of the year while mocking its overly sterile summary notifications. | |
| Apple Vision Pro: Hardware Excellence versus Missing Use Cases | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Alex revisits Casey's previous year prediction regarding the Apple Vision Pro. Casey owns his missed forecast while providing nuanced market context on its $1.5 billion revenue run rate and explaining why developer friction and lack of daily utility hurt adoption more than price. | |
| Meta Orion and the Long-Term Promise of AR Glasses | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | Casey details Meta Orion AR glasses and explains why Google's top benchmark rankings do not translate to great consumer AI products, hypothesizing that Google is teaching to the test. Alex supports the argument by sharing his extensive daily personal workflow using Claude as a nutrition coach. | |
| OpenAI and Microsoft: Interdependence, Tension, and Executive Dynamics | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Casey explains the mutual interdependence keeping Microsoft and OpenAI tethered together. Alex extends the analysis by predicting Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman may depart due to executive friction and organizational misalignment. | |
| TikTok Ban Looming, Meta's Advantage, and Political Wildcards | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | The two discuss the impending TikTok ban deadline and the revenue windfalls awaiting Meta Reels and YouTube Shorts. Alex pitches a contrarian scenario where Trump quickly intervenes on day one to restore the app. | |
| Tech Antitrust, M&A Climate, and E-Commerce Under Trump 2.0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Alex drives a detailed inquiry into Amazon's competitive exposure to Temu and Shein, citing specific Gen Z shopping data and de minimis tax loopholes. Casey openly defers to Alex's deeper reporting expertise on the Amazon ecosystem. | |
| Quantum Computing Advances: Scientific Proofs vs Practical Deployment | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Casey educates Alex on Google's quantum hardware milestones from his recent interview with lead Julian Kelly, stressing that commercial viability is years away. The conversation transitions smoothly into Waymo's rapid geographic expansion and superior rider experience. | |
| Brain-Computer Interfaces: Neuralink's Clinical Trials and Realistic Timelines | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | Alex predicts 2025 will be the breakout year for brain-computer interfaces like Neuralink. Casey immediately checks this enthusiasm with reporting from his interview with trial patient Noland Arbaugh, citing hardware reliability issues and degraded sensors. |
Statements from this episode (21)
Newton: OpenAI reported ChatGPT reached 300 million weekly users
“Recently OpenAI told us that ChatGPT had three hundred million users a week.”
Newton predicts at least one AI company will reap massive LLM profits
“So when I look at AI, I see something that yes, is very expensive to train, but when you look at the fact that it's a general purpose technology and that we are finding more and more things to do with it, I do believe that at least one of these companies is go…”
Newton: AI lab executives are setting expectations for linear progress in 2025
“So, based on the conversations that I've had with executives of the AI labs, it feels like people are trying to set expectations for more linear progress next year.”
Newton predicts Grammarly will be dead by the end of 2025
“Oh, can I give you a prediction? Grammarly dead by end of 2025.”
Newton: Apple Intelligence is the flop of the year
“What I would say is Apple intelligence flop of the year.”
Newton: Apple Intelligence is built for users two years behind cutting-edge AI
“If you're, like, a tech nerd, like we are, and you want to live in the future, and you want to, like, use tools to improve your life, you would not be using any of the Apple intelligence stuff, because it, like, it truly is aimed at somebody who is two years b…”
Kantrowitz: Apple Intelligence cannot pull flight times from Apple Mail
“It still can't do basic things like pull a flight out of Apple Mail and tell you when it's leaving.”
Newton: Apple's strained developer relations prevented a Netflix Vision Pro app
“Their relationships with developers are, like, really bad right now. They can't even get frickin' Netflix to make an App for this thing.”
Newton: Meta Orion consumer glasses are years away and will be downgraded
“So my understanding is that the Orion headset is, like, multiple years out, and that when it arrives, it won't actually even be as good as the glasses that we tried on this year, because in order to make the cost work, they're just gonna have to, like, rip out…”
Newton: Gemini is clearly the worst among ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini
“The three big models that I use and pay for every single week, some of them every day, some of them many times a day, are ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini. Of those, I would say Gemini has clearly been the worst.”
Newton: Most of NotebookLM's founding team quit Google after it went viral
“And then as soon as it went viral, most of the founding team of notebook LM quit to go do a startup.”
Newton: Google's AI models are trained to 'teach to the test'
“Well, I have a conspiracy theory, which is you know kind of not great to be sharing on a podcast, but I'm gonna do it anyway, which is, I think Google is teaching to the test. You know what I mean? Yes. Like, I think that they know what the benchmarks are, and…”
Newton: Microsoft and OpenAI will stay partnered in 2025 despite tensions
“I mean, my, like, possibly contrarian take is, like, they just kind of muddle through. Like, that's kind of what I think that they're going to do. OpenAI needs Microsoft for the compute, the data centers, the, like, infrastructure of making AI. They're not goi…”
Newton: Microsoft's in-house AI products besides coding Copilot are nowhere
“Like, the Microsoft stuff that is being done independently is okay. Like, you know, maybe Copilot seems to be good if you want to write code. Outside that, it kind of just feels like they're nowhere to me.”
Kantrowitz: Apple and Google will ban TikTok before Trump instantly restores it
“This is my hottest of all takes, which is That the app stores are forced to ban TikTok on January, and then Trump day one says, put it back. So there, it's gone for like a half hour.”
Kantrowitz: Temu and Shein will face US regulatory action or ban
“I think that Timu and Sheehan are going to face some action, whether it is those higher taxes, and I would not be, or a ban, and I would not be surprised by a ban.”
Kantrowitz: Temu and Shein took 50% of Gen Z Black Friday spend
“I think we had some Black Friday statistics that we cited on the show this year, which is that those two retailers, Timu and Sheehan, made up about 50% of Gen Z's Black Friday purchasing.”
Newton: Waymo is the best consumer technology experience most haven't had
“I think like Waymo is the best consumer technology experience that most people have not had.”
Kantrowitz predicts dozens of Neuralink patients will receive implants in 2025
“I think 20, 25 is going to be the year of the brain computer interface. I think we could end up seeing dozens of Neuralink patients in 20, 25.”