Casey Newton reports on background conversations with AI lab leadership regarding model capability improvements for 2025.
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Newton predicts Grammarly will be dead by the end of 2025
“Oh, can I give you a prediction? Grammarly dead by end of 2025.”
Opinion
Newton: Google's AI models are trained to 'teach to the test'
“Well, I have a conspiracy theory, which is you know kind of not great to be sharing on a podcast, but I'm gonna do it anyway, which is, I think Google is teaching to the test. You know what I mean? Yes. Like, I think that they know what the benchmarks are, and…”
Prediction Held up
Newton: Microsoft and OpenAI will stay partnered in 2025 despite tensions
“I mean, my, like, possibly contrarian take is, like, they just kind of muddle through. Like, that's kind of what I think that they're going to do. OpenAI needs Microsoft for the compute, the data centers, the, like, infrastructure of making AI. They're not goi…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Newton predicts at least one AI company will reap massive LLM profits
“So when I look at AI, I see something that yes, is very expensive to train, but when you look at the fact that it's a general purpose technology and that we are finding more and more things to do with it, I do believe that at least one of these companies is go…”
Opinion
Newton: Apple Intelligence is the flop of the year
“What I would say is Apple intelligence flop of the year.”
Opinion
Newton: Apple Intelligence is built for users two years behind cutting-edge AI
“If you're, like, a tech nerd, like we are, and you want to live in the future, and you want to, like, use tools to improve your life, you would not be using any of the Apple intelligence stuff, because it, like, it truly is aimed at somebody who is two years b…”