Moore's Law

“Try to identify what is the exponential in the world that has both the steepest curve And we'll go the longest. And, you know, many decades ago, this curve was Moore's law. And that probably was, you know, that was at the time, like clearly the right thing to …”

“The original statement of Moore's law was economic, right? It was about, we can afford to put twice as many transistors on the same chip in every, whatever, 24 months, whatever the time period is. And these days that is, Absolutely not the case. It hasn't been…”

“Key to any scaling law, including Moore's law and the AI scaling laws is, you know, they're not really laws, right? They're predictions. But when they work, they become self-fulfilling predictions because they set a benchmark and then the entire industry, righ…”

“We are not at the end of Moore's law. It's not dead. It's merely resting. There are ways of doing computation hitherto unimagined, right?”

“If you look at what's happening with, ah, the price of AI is falling much faster than Moore's Law.”

“You know, we talk about the Moore's law improvement on one end, but the software improvements are much more exponential than that.”

“Like we're coming to the end of Moore's law. We cannot make smaller transistors. That's going to get really, really painful in the next decade.”

“Over the last 5060 years, its progress on its main criteria, like how much energy you get out versus in, has been faster than Moore's Law.”

“As you plot it, the algorithmic advances have actually beaten out the computational advances, even with Moore's law.”

“I think if we had not seen the emergence of Moore's law and improved computing capacity, we would have been in much more dire straits as far as economic stagnation goes.”

“When you combine these two things, the Moore's Law and Moore's Second Law, it implies that the leading company, that most profitable company, will become a monopoly.”

“We think that with our diamond technology, that we will be able to hyper accelerate Moore's law so that You know, in, in, in two years, we will be achieving what previously folks had to wait six, seven years in the past to get to in terms of performance”

“I think the cost of inference for LLM has gone down by a factor of a hundred in two years. I mean, it's just, it's amazing, right? It's way faster than Moore's law.”

“Over the next 10 years our hope is that we could double or triple performance every year at scale. Not at chip. At scale. And to be able to, therefore, drive the cost down by a factor of two or three, drive the energy down by a factor of two, three every singl…”

“And by the way, I'm a believer in, in, you know Moore's law has been extended so many times because people are super smart and able to come up with different ways of extending the same principle of, you know, more transistors, more capability every couple of y…”

“Moore's law would have been about a hundred X.”

“Moore's law has largely ended.”

“I'm incredibly optimistic that just the cost of running AI will could probably track something like Moore's law.”

“The nice thing about the exponentials is that, you know, things will go down a factor of a thousand, like, every 10 years on the Moore's Law side, and we'll continue to see that. So, a thousand, maybe in 20 years, a million, you know, a thousand times a thousa…”

“And frankly, it's actually made the industry complacent. Not much has changed over the years in the past six decades. If you look at it, cause Moore's law pretty much gave performance improvements for free.”

“Moore's law is not an inflection. You know, an improvement curve is not an inflection. An inflection, I'm a little persnickety about. It's a turning point. And so, you know, in math, it's a turning point on a curve where the slope changes, but in, in, in tech …”

“And so I think we're already in the equivalent of a resumption of the acceleration of Moore's law.”

“We have seen faster than Moore's law improvement on GPU performance.”

“We're still so at the beginning, the early phases of this thing that it is moving faster than Moore's law. By a lot.”

“And with Moore's law slowing, it means you still get those device improvements, but it Costs more. Your power's not coming down as much as it used to, and you are still getting that integration. You're still certainly being able to pack more devices, and, but …”

“The cost per pound to put something in space, and it looks like Moore's law, where what's happening is that there's this Moore's law looking graph on how cheap How much cheaper it is getting to put something into orbit.”

“I think it will. You know, some people say Moore's law is, is starting to come to an end in terms of just more transistors, but we barely started on neural hardware. So I'm sure we're going to see the same effect, even if it's not more transistors per square i…”

“We're not gonna let Moore's Law die until the periodic table is exhausted, and we have a lot of elements yet to go.”

“Whatever advances are happening in Moore's law and the number of transistors on a chip, If you have an algorithm that can run in parallel, which is not all problem spaces, but many can, then you can basically lever up Moore's Law by hundreds of times, or thous…”

“Moore's law is actually still, as of today, alive and kicking, right?”

“Moore's law is slowing, right? It is not 18 months anymore. It's five years.”

“There's still, you know, a good, I don't know, 10 years of shrinking possible.”

“There are so many things that we've talked about in the last, I mean, on Acquired generally, but especially in the last year, where their success came from correctly forecasting where Moore's Law would be at the time that they shipped their product.”

“We're sizing opportunities using Wright's law, a relative of Moore's law, to try and understand cost declines, and then we do our bottom-up analysis. We are as stock research driven as any other bottom-up team out there, and then we have a six-point overlay ju…”

“The way that he described it to me, which is so true the minute he said it, I was like, my gosh, it's like Moore's law never ended, it just shifted to GPUs.”

“The field of quantum computing is one of those other areas where we think in terms of fantastical ideas, this is a Jetsons thing, it's not a human thing, but there's increasing consensus that that technological problem will solve within our lifetime, in which …”

“If you look at just generally at the history of technology, people mistakenly think of these things as laws of physics, like Moore's law. People talk about as if magically There's this inevitable march towards being able to pack more transistors on chips. I th…”

“As long as Moore's Law continues to hold and computing power continues to get exponentially cheaper, The markets that technology can attack should keep getting bigger and bigger.”

“When you look at, like, what NVIDIA's been doing with GPUs, it is totally fair to say that this 10 X improvement in computing every five, six, seven years, that is absolutely still happening”

“From the Seventies until the nineties, 20 years that triple product metric increased by five orders of magnitude, and people like to compare that with Moore's law as an example”

“We've published a peer reviewed journal article in, in December, 2020 on a lot. We've discovered, we believe we've discovered a lot that the power density of these transistors, it's doubling about every 18 months. We plotted all the data. Back to like the 19 n…”

“The needs of Moore's law are just so difficult that like, it's hard enough to just do one of these things well and doing multiple of them well makes it makes it harder.”

“I think just like for the spirit of Moore's law, we still have, we have visibility probably for the next. 10 to 15 years.”

“DNA sequencing costs have dropped faster than Moore's law over the last 10 or 15 years.”

“So the bad news is that that in, in that form seems to be coming to something of an end which is we have, we're too good at it. We've hit basically, we being the semiconductor industry broadly, the tech industry have kind of hit the limits of fundamental physi…”

“And so with those different approaches, it feels like we've got, you know, it feels like decades of advances ahead that aren't purely dependent on classic Moore's law.”

“And the idea that we're out of that world because of Moore's law, because we have much more computational power now, I find that ludicrous.”

“Whereas Moore's Law, really, the spirit of Moore's Law is an economic principle. Which is when the computing industry really cares about something, and the economic engine gets going, things tend to get better very quickly.”

“And it's beat Moore's law by several magnitudes.”

“Moore's law has now flipped. The dynamic now, instead of increased performance, has reduced cost. You now have this dynamic where every year, year and a half, the chip companies come out with a chip that's just as fast, but half the price.”

“The, there's almost like a deterministic nature of Moore's law, that the cost of compute and cost of genomics and these things decreasing exponentially. That actually is something that's really hard to avoid, and so in my mind, it's not really a question of if…”

“But the point is that a system that's twice as good, if it's, say, an order, you know, an order, it might scale non-linearly. So it might be 256 times harder to build a system that's twice as good, and so every incremental improvement is going to take longer, …”

“That traditional biotech is governed by Oom's law, and these are governed much more by Moore's law.”

“It would be really hard actually to like improve you know, global food production in any sort of exponential way that, that resembles Moore's law.”

“The more CPU you've got, the more things you can put inside of sandbox instead of letting them run on bare metal.”

“Yeah, I mean, there's one school of thought that That the web can never have the same UX performance characteristics of native apps, but that just seems like it's on the wrong side of Moore's law.”

“For deep technology, you need to understand what aspects of the bomb they're looking to come down, right? I think a lot of it tends to be external and dependent on startups. I see this a lot. Oh, there's a lot of companies innovating around X, Y, or Z, and tho…”

“In particular, the quantum coherence time seems to be progressing very, very quickly these days, and in fact, faster than Moore's Law”