Assertion Supported AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 4/5 debate potential 1/5

Hsu: Fusion triple product grew five orders of magnitude across twenty years

Dr. Scott Hsu · Is nuclear fusion getting close? · Dec 23, 2021 · at 10:34

Dr. Scott Hsu, ARPA-E Program Director, discusses the historical rate of progress in plasma confinement and fusion energy research.

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“From the Seventies until the nineties, 20 years that triple product metric increased by five orders of magnitude, and people like to compare that with Moore's law as an example”

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More from Dr. Scott Hsu

Prediction Held up
Hsu predicts someone will achieve fusion scientific breakeven during the 2020s
“If I were a betting person, I would say yes. I think somebody will achieve scientific break-even this decade, and possibly more than one.”
Dr. Scott Hsu Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 41:05 Is nuclear fusion getting close?
Opinion
Hsu: New superconductors enable major fusion milestones at smaller, cheaper scales
“What took Something, say, the size of ITER to reach the next major milestone in fusion, people think can be done now with much smaller sized systems and much lower cost systems.”
Dr. Scott Hsu Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 12:46 Is nuclear fusion getting close?
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hsu: Scaling fusion gain beyond Q=1 risks encountering unstudied new physics
“So I would say going from .7 to one is is not a huge jump but going from one to 10, you, you're, or from, you know, one to a hundred in inertial fusion you're likely to encounter some new physics that, that haven't been studied yet, which makes it riskier.”
Dr. Scott Hsu Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 33:07 Is nuclear fusion getting close?
Insight
Hsu: Core plasma physics is a minor driver of total plant cost
“Even though you can optimize your fusion core and get to high gain, honestly, at the end of the day, those things are a smaller driver of the ultimate total cost.”
Dr. Scott Hsu Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 36:27 Is nuclear fusion getting close?
Assertion Supported
Hsu: A single train car of fusion fuel could power the US
“Yeah, so the example I like to look at is one train car of fusion fuel, and that's like a little over a hundred tons. Imagine a train car of coal, for example, But if it was a train car of deuterium, tritium fuel that would provide enough energy for the U.S.'s…”
Dr. Scott Hsu Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 6:33 Is nuclear fusion getting close?
Assertion Supported
Hsu: Nuclear fusion produces no fissile material and needs no geological storage
“There is some waste, but it's short-lived waste, radioactive waste and there's no fissile fuel, which is another concern. But for sure, you also don't need geological storage of the waste.”
Dr. Scott Hsu Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 7:16 Is nuclear fusion getting close?
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