ARPA-E Program Director Dr. Scott Hsu explains that balance of plant, buildings, and infrastructure dominate fusion plant economics over core plasma performance.
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“Even though you can optimize your fusion core and get to high gain, honestly, at the end of the day, those things are a smaller driver of the ultimate total cost.”
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More from Dr. Scott Hsu
PredictionHeld up
Hsu predicts someone will achieve fusion scientific breakeven during the 2020s
“If I were a betting person, I would say yes. I think somebody will achieve scientific break-even this decade, and possibly more than one.”
Dr. Scott HsuDec 23, 2021▶ 41:05Is nuclear fusion getting close?
Opinion
Hsu: New superconductors enable major fusion milestones at smaller, cheaper scales
“What took Something, say, the size of ITER to reach the next major milestone in fusion, people think can be done now with much smaller sized systems and much lower cost systems.”
Dr. Scott HsuDec 23, 2021▶ 12:46Is nuclear fusion getting close?
PredictionNot checkable as stated
Hsu: Scaling fusion gain beyond Q=1 risks encountering unstudied new physics
“So I would say going from .7 to one is is not a huge jump but going from one to 10, you, you're, or from, you know, one to a hundred in inertial fusion you're likely to encounter some new physics that, that haven't been studied yet, which makes it riskier.”
Dr. Scott HsuDec 23, 2021▶ 33:07Is nuclear fusion getting close?
AssertionSupported
Hsu: A single train car of fusion fuel could power the US
“Yeah, so the example I like to look at is one train car of fusion fuel, and that's like a little over a hundred tons. Imagine a train car of coal, for example, But if it was a train car of deuterium, tritium fuel that would provide enough energy for the U.S.'s…”
Dr. Scott HsuDec 23, 2021▶ 6:33Is nuclear fusion getting close?
AssertionSupported
Hsu: Nuclear fusion produces no fissile material and needs no geological storage
“There is some waste, but it's short-lived waste, radioactive waste and there's no fissile fuel, which is another concern. But for sure, you also don't need geological storage of the waste.”
Dr. Scott HsuDec 23, 2021▶ 7:16Is nuclear fusion getting close?
PredictionDidn’t hold up
Hsu predicts the ITER fusion project will achieve first plasma by 2026
“First plasma on Eater is expected in, hopefully, within a few years, twenty-twenty-five, twenty-twenty-six timeframe.”
Dr. Scott HsuDec 23, 2021▶ 14:00Is nuclear fusion getting close?
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