Google co-founder Sergey Brin compares the historical impact of algorithmic breakthroughs versus compute scaling in complex computing tasks like n-body simulations.
“As you plot it, the algorithmic advances have actually beaten out the computational advances, even with Moore's law.”
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PredictionNot checkable as stated
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“2030. Boy, you really kind of, ah, put it on that fine line. I'm gonna say before.”
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“If I had to guess, I would say the algorithmic advances are probably going to be Even more significant than the computational advances, but both of them are coming up now, so we're kind of getting the benefits of both.”
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“I guess I would suppose that one company or country or entity will reach AGI first. Now it is a little bit of a, you know, kind of a spectrum. It's not like a completely precise thing, so it's conceivable that there will be more than one roughly in that range …”
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AssertionContradicted
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“What they did with AlphaGo and AlphaZero, as you mentioned it showed, as I recall, something you would take 5000 times as much training to match what you were able to do with still a lot of training and the inference time compute that you were doing with Go.”
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