Standage: AI intelligence takeoff will not be exponential due to scaling limits
Tom Standage · a16z Podcast | Artificial Intelligence and the 'Space of Possible Minds' · Jan 2, 2019 · at 24:57
Tom Standage, Deputy Editor at The Economist, argues against the Singularity takeoff theory on the a16z Podcast.
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“But the point is that a system that's twice as good, if it's, say, an order, you know, an order, it might scale non-linearly. So it might be 256 times harder to build a system that's twice as good, and so every incremental improvement is going to take longer, and it's going to take a lot longer, and improvements in other areas like Moore's law and so on again are not fast enough to allow each incremental generation of better intelligence to be arrive sooner than the previous one. So there's a simple scaling argument that that this need not be linear.”
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