AI Market

“I think there are more sellers than there are buyers right now in the market, right? It's like we're in the middle of this AI. Everything is AI. Everything's trying to sell something AI.”

“With the dot-com boom, it was all, like, metrics that weren't dollars. What we're seeing now is revenue and profits and growth. In revenue and profits that we've never seen before. And that's kind of the anthropic story. It's the data center, infrastructure, n…”

“I think that what I am less concerned about is a, Like, 2008 style financial crisis or massive bubble or asset crash. I think that that seems disconnected from the true reality of where this technology is and is going.”

“Coding is the fastest adopting market. It's the highest ROI market. It's the mother load, right?”

“At the present, the market is pricing in perfect execution for every company. Every idea that you see, the market wants to reward it because it thinks that Their returns are outsized, and the gains are going to be so huge that it doesn't matter.”

“I think two years from now, that will become less apparent. I think the market will have figured out its fair shares of failures and successes, and the market will get more discerning, which is what typically happens at that point in time in the cycle. It usua…”

“So it's just, it feels to me like we're gonna end up with an oligopoly Of winners, and there will be, I really believe they will be these, like, hundred billion dollar crazy smaller winners and so, like, that's, you know, that's, like, that just feels like tha…”

“I don't, I can't see this being a zero sum game only because the world will not tolerate like one winner in a product that everyone in the world has to use. That would, that, that, that company, that winner would be way too powerful. It just doesn't, it just d…”

“I do think there's parts of market that is actually quite frothy. For sure. There's a lot of capital going in, there's a lot of excitement.”

“I think everyone's out securing their bags before it all falls apart.”

“The market today seems to be pushing towards duopoly, or it has become a duopoly, certainly measured in terms of revenue. If you were to look at market share based on token revenue, there's only two companies making meaningful revenue. Anthropics at, what, six…”

“I actually think the market is totally rational on this. I think if anything, a lot of us have underestimated the potential of AI and the value creation that it offers.”

“I think the equivalent on the hardware side is there's going to be multiple chip vendors. There's also going to be multiple clouds. There's also going to be multiple models that run on the clouds.”

“I think that's also where the market is headed. So we're seeing a lot AI being used on, on smaller devices, AI being used offline and the smaller devices.”

“I feel pretty confident saying that we're not in a bubble right now.”

“I think, like we said earlier, there is a bubble to this thing. But I also think it's, it is, like, it is life changing. Mean AI is changing the way that you can interact with technology. So I do think it's important that you build for speed and you go fast. B…”

“Cross-sectionally, if you look at the valuations for all these AI names, they just, they can't all be accurate... The AI market is cross-sectionally inefficient right now, which is what I was trying to say.”

“For the record, I don't believe we're in that period, but I do think that any time you have this sort of superheated markets, you have some distortion, okay?”

“Like I think the winners and losers are going to be decided in the next couple of years, right?”

“If you're responding to the facts in front of you and not thinking from first principles about why we're at this point and where it will probably be 12 months from now, the likelihood that you'll make the right strategic decision is almost zero.”

“Well, deterministically, very new, very, very big, very, very exciting, world-changing things tend to lead to bubbles. And you, I don't think anybody would dispute that you can see some bubbly behavior now, and, you know, you can argue about what kind of bubbl…”

“What is inevitable though, if you look at that six year period between the Netscape IPO and the downturn, and you say everything's happening at twice the speed, we're probably pretty close to being due for an AI correction.”

“There's like 10 players around this big chessboard, and they're extremely powerful, and each of their moves affects the other people's moves, so it's kind of recursive.”

“The bigger problem you'll have is legislators trying to clean it up on the back end, where there'll be these third parties that will go and take these models and show that these biases exist. They'll exist on both sides. And then laws will get passed. Whole ma…”

“In the whole AI market, it looks like it's very hard to differentiate with models. If you have a good model, you maybe have a three month lead, maybe four months people catch up.”

“I really think this is a shakeout. It's kind of like a back to reality, come down to earth moment, but I don't think there's gonna be massive spillover effects from any kind of Any kind of rational analysis on what's really happening right now, and investors j…”

“There will be companies that are real that come out of this. There will be a lot of giant failures. There'll be money flushed down the toilet on stupid companies.”

“I think that's an area that, that's profoundly under-invested in.”

“They own 90% of the search market. I don't know what they own of the AI market, but it ain't 90%. Is it 25%? I don't know, but at steady state it probably will be something like 25, maybe up to 50%, but This is going to be a market with several big players in …”

“One of two things is going to happen in the next five or seven years, right? Either A, you know, you are going to see pretty profound productivity changes. You're going to see companies like OpenAI literally being two to three hundred billion dollars in revenu…”

“Right now, people are making more money than they're spending. It's just very lumpy. As an aggregate. Plenty of people are gonna lose their shirts, but overall, less money is gonna go in than is gonna come out.”

“They've been willing to say, let's spend in aggregate six hundred billion of capex per year on a market that today, depending on how you add up all the revenues, is yielding 30 to forty billion dollars in revenue.”

“Like these businesses are all work and they're being priced appropriately for how they're growing. So that's not an effect. So the thing that you could say is they're not going to keep growing like that or like, and so forth. And I'm not sure about that. Like …”

“Even companies that seem like they're competing end up in totally different places just because so much white space is being created, but they're all competing, like totally different companies and spaces are competing with the same talent. So the first time I…”

“It's not the case that just two companies are growing very quickly in AI, and in fact that's probably a good segue to the next slide that shows markets are not only growing faster and much larger than expected, they're also fragmenting.”

“We're in the definition of a bubble period right now. And there is no way that this bubble doesn't pop.”

“We've seen the opposite trend in AI where there's like more competitors today than there were a year ago, even though it's gotten more expensive.”

“I've actually seen more recently, a lot of AI companies, direct sales come a little bit more back into fashion because I think so many of the opportunities in AI are actually meet that quality Application where the buyer and the user are not necessarily the sa…”

“This is like, this isn't like, this is like 1999, except it's not going to implode on us in, in 12 months.”

“When you're spending half a trillion dollars in advance of revenue, at some point in the next two or three years, there'll be at least one scary moment. Right. And that could be actually an interesting opportunity to invest, but it's hard to believe it's up an…”

“I continue to believe that this is more like the computer business than it is the internet business, where we're all paying for computers. Like, we're paying for access to computers, and in the early personal computing revolution, everybody was, if you're a se…”

“And I, you know, I truly just think that the ceiling is so high that kind of no matter what, you know, entrenchment you build you can be leapfrogged. And I think that this resembles markets that are maybe a little bit different from normal software markets, no…”

“Like the market is moving so fast. We're literally sitting on an exponential curve of innovation where it's hard to keep up and you can't really plan more than a month or two ahead of time.”

“Everyone's over-investing right now into this cycle, and because none of us can miss, whether it's the large incumbents, Or us as venture investors back in companies.”

“I think we are in a bubble.”

“I actually think the AI market commercially will play out like the cloud market did over the past 20 years.”

“There's almost an inevitable crash, even if you do believe that eventually value gets created.”

“I think if we built, if we do nothing on policy or regulation, we're sort of gambling that everyone is going to be reasonably responsible and not cut corners. And I think in a really like fast moving, crazy technology market, like AI, you aren't really guarant…”

“Infrastructure providers and app builders. That's my best guess of where money gets made here.”

“There's Four or five big foundational models, and then there's a bunch of small vertical use applications that you use, depending on what the task is.”

“I'm seeing a lot of like, you know, I need to pretend that I have a moat, so I need to, you know, fine tune all this stuff and whatever, whatever. But yeah, no, I mean, So many things that were very, very, very hard for computers, you know, 18 months ago are v…”

“The GLP one hype cycle is as overextended as the AI hype cycle.”

“I actually don't think it's going to, I think there's going to be more hype rather than less coming simply because certain things are really starting to work at scale from a revenue perspective and really quickly.”