Assertion Supported
Carta Data: Only 4% of SAFE Bridge Startups Reach Series A
“If you took a bridge on a safe or a note after you had already raised price funding, so this is all about priced seeds to price series A, the percentage on the convertible bridges was four percent.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2025
Carta Data: Only 4% of SAFE/Note Seed Bridges Reach Series A
“The percentage of companies that raised a seed round in twenty-twenty and then have raised some sort of bridge capital since then on a safe or a note. Only four percent of companies that fall into that bucket have gotten to a series A. Four percent versus like…”
Assertion Supported
Walker: AI foundation model seed startups reach $160M-$200M post-money valuations
“There's always this cohort of mostly candidly AI infrastructure companies that are building foundational models or building like the tech around foundational models, and they are getting valued at Just astronomical numbers. You know, I call it a 160, 170, 182 …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Walker: Most high-valuation AI seed startups will flop like in 2021
“I have a feeling that what's going to happen is a lot of these companies are going to flop. And we're going to do what we did in 2021 with some major, major outliers that really work. And maybe that's the whole point, but I think there's pain coming for this. …”
Opinion
Walker: Series A Is the Venture Stage Deserving the Most Investor Caution
“But in aggregate, I think series A is the place that I would be most cautious about investing right now because the money is really high and these are still very young, very, very unproven businesses.”
Insight
Walker: Billion-Dollar Exits No Longer Return Funds at Current Series A Valuations
“Getting to a billion dollars, you're investing in this kind of Series A, it doesn't even come close to returning the fund. You know, unicorns are not the vibe anymore. It's Decacorns Plus.”
Assertion Supported
Walker: Zero-revenue AI infrastructure startups are raising hundreds of millions
“Then there's this toward, you know, those AI infrastructure companies might be earning zero dollars and they're raising hundreds of millions because they're, they haven't, you know, come out with their new world model yet or whatever it is.”
Opinion
Walker: Startup Defensibility Has Never Been Lower
“I think the defensibility has never been lower.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Walker: Bootstrapped Startup Growth Is Outpacing VC-Backed Company Creation
“Cause we really haven't seen the VC part of the market change all that much. It hasn't experienced the same sort of rapid growth that the bootstrap side of the market has.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Walker: Solo Founders Are Not Granting Larger Equity Shares to Early Hires
“What I hope is that these companies, what I haven't seen so far, and what I hope happens, is that these companies that are being built by a solo founder grant equity to their early team in a different way. Like there are just higher levels of equity granted to…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Walker: Many VCs Started in 2020–2021 Will Not Raise Again
“A lot of VCs who got started in 2020 and 20 21, they're on their last funds, and they're not gonna be able to raise again.”
Assertion Supported
Walker: Top-quartile seed valuation barely increases Series A graduation rate
“What it showed is that on a percentage of graduation basis, yes, the highest valued companies graduate to Series A little bit more often than the other companies. But it's not a massive difference. It's within a couple percentage points.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Walker: AI startups are spending as much money as ever
“And there was a theory for a little while there that AI companies would spend a lot less money. We're not seeing that. I think AI companies are spending as much money as they've ever spent.”
What-if
Walker: AI Averted a Prolonged 2000- or 2008-Style Startup Downturn
“We were in route to having what would have happened in 2008 or 2000 Where there was going to be an extended period of decline for startups, but then we had AI.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Walker: The AI Venture Market Is In a Bubble That Will Pop
“We're in the definition of a bubble period right now. And there is no way that this bubble doesn't pop.”
Insight
Walker: Funding round dilution reflects VC ownership targets, not founder cash needs
“The dilution for a given venture backed company has more to do with the needs of the investors. And it has the needs of the founders. And so founders are, you know, don't get screwed by a bad deal, but realize that the numbers that you're coming to with in neg…”
Insight
Walker: VCs often fund bridge rounds just to protect marks for LPs
“So you might bridge a company. For the express reason of having better marks to go and show your LPs when you go and fundraise. And so that might be the primary reason you did it. Even if you're like, I know this founders and probably don't get there.”
Insight
Walker: Seed-Strapping Is Great for Businesses but Bad for Venture Returns
“It's not that seed strapping is a bad way to build a business. It's actually a fantastic way to build a business. It's a bad way to get venture returns. And that is the fundamental mismatch between the investor expectations and the founder expectations that I …”
Opinion
Walker: Post-money SAFEs primarily serve investors, not founders
“The switch from pre to post money was not a founder friendly thing. YC sometimes makes it sound as though that was in service of founders, and you can make some case that it is more transparent, it's more certainty, et cetera, but that is primarily in service …”
Assertion Supported
Walker: 58% of two-founder startup teams split equity unequally
“Something like 58% of two founder teams split unequally, so not fifty-fifty.”
Assertion Supported
Carta Data: Smallest Seed Rounds Graduate to Series A Less Frequently
“The general gist of it was that if you raise a small seed round, that is less highly correlated with your ability to raise an A round. So it looks to be that the smallest, and there's a bell curve here where, you know, at the smallest seed rounds tend to make …”
Opinion
Carta's Walker: Anxiety Around AI Gross Margins Is Overdone
“The debate about margins in this AI world, I think is candidly a little overdone, like pretty early. There's every indication that the economics might continue to change.”
Assertion Supported
Walker: Current Series A Rounds Average $14M–$15M at $75M Post-Money
“Like, you're talking 14, fifteen million dollars raised. You're talking seventy-five million or so post-money valuations on that.”
Assertion Open · timeframe May 2026
Walker: Median Series A valuation in Bay Area is $85M post-money
“Like, you know, the median Series A in the Bay right now is eighty-five million, post-money. The median in Austin is probably more like 65. The median in D.C., probably more like 60, and on down the line.”
