The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

4open predictions
1due for another look
5closed calls →
341days to next prediction date
Everyone Peter Walker (5)Aaron Schumm (2)Wayne Slavin (1)Sahil Phadnis (1)Russ d’Sa (1)Mike Salguero (1)Mateo Marietti (1)Josh Reeves (1)Jon Yoo (1)Jeff Wang (1)Isaiah Granet (1)Helen Hastings (1)
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today 20252026202720282029 FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 3 calls beyond 2029 →

Next up (4)

341 days left 2027-08-21
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Walker: Carta will likely stop reporting on AI as a separate category by 2027
“I am pretty sure that in the next two years, I'm just gonna stop reporting on AI.”
Peter Walker Aug 21, 2025 ▶ 18:25 Q2 2025: The new Series A Bar is $3M ARR—& only 20% of seed startups make it. | Peter Walker, Hea... · PMF Show
1276 days left 2030-03-13
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2030
Yoo: Cloud marketplace GMV will cross $100B in next 5 years
“They are, you know, I mean, their GMV is like expected to cross a hundred billion dollars over the next five years.”
Jon Yoo Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 12:08 Post-YC, he split with his co-founder—then grew profitably to $2M ARR with just 5 people. | Jon Y... · PMF Show
1500 days left 2030-10-23
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030
Varma: 401(k) alts will grow private assets to $25T-$30T in 4-5 years
“And I feel like if you look at private assets the market today is high teens, trillions, call it 18 trillion. You know, the executive order just came out in August to allow alternative assets into four or one case, which will make this a 25 to 30 trillion doll…”
Amar Varma Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 39:30 5x founder asked Ford for a contract so large—they acquired his company instead. | Amar Varma, Fo... · PMF Show
3449 days left 2036-02-23
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2036
Russ d’Sa: Voice will become the primary computer interface in 5-10 years
“Most of the internet is still built around text and that is going to shift in a huge way over the next five to 10 years as the models become smarter and more human-like you interact with them in more human-like ways like voice, right? Is the primary way we int…”
Russ d’Sa Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 53:46 His startup powers OpenAI's Voice Mode. Last month, they became a unicorn. | Russ d’Sa, Co-Founde... · PMF Show

Due for another look (1)

Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2025
Affiniti will reach $10M ARR within 45 to 60 days
“Yeah, we're, I think we'll be there in the next, like, 45, 60 days.”
Sahil Phadnis Sep 8, 2025 ▶ 55:56 TechCrunch called this YC founder a fraud at 18—then he built a $10M ARR fintech. | Sahil Phadnis... · PMF Show

Closed calls (5) the full record →

Prediction Held up
Ujjainwalla: Incumbent marketing platforms will re-enter asset creation via GenAI
“Now, there is a whole new focus on content generation now with generative AI, and so I think a lot of them are going back Back to what we're doing. Cause it's sexy again. Like, hey, there's generative AI images and text, and that fits really nicely into these …”
Pierce Ujjainwalla Jul 29, 2024 ▶ 25:47 He refused to quit his job until $1M ARR—then grew to $5M ARR & closed a $25M Series A. | Pierce ... · PMF Show
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mikesell: Carbon Robotics will likely IPO within one to two years
“We seem like we're on the path, you know, where we keep doing what we're doing. We'll probably have an IPO in the next. You're too, you know, we'll, we'll, yes, we'll have a billion dollar outcome here that looks more likely every day.”
Paul Mikesell Jul 15, 2024 ▶ 50:07 He built a farming robot that shoots weeds with lasers— then closed $10M in pre-sales before ship... · PMF Show
Prediction Held up
Walker: Series A headcount will drop to 15 by year-end
“Now, it's down to 17, and I think by the end of the year, that'll be more like 15. And that's at, you know, on the day of the Series A fundraise.”
Peter Walker Nov 27, 2025 ▶ 12:52 Q3 2025 w/Carta: What you need to raise a Series A. | Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta · PMF Show
Prediction Held up
Dabble projects up to $175 million in revenue for the current year.
“We'll probably report, yeah, one 50 to one 75 in the year that we're currently in that's the US launch”
Jon Robin Dec 12, 2024 ▶ 36:52 His sports betting app went from $0 to $10M ARR in a year—& to $150M ARR in 4. Here's how he did ... · PMF Show
Prediction Held up
Fullscript will reach $900M in 2024 revenue with 800 employees
“Like, you know, we'll do a, call it, nine hundred million dollars in revenue this year with, you know, 400 teammates that are driving that from a knowledge worker play, you know, perspective and 400 distribution workers.”
Kyle Braatz Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 16:11 Every VC Rejected Him. So He Bootstrapped From $0 to $10M in 3 years | Kyle Braatz, founder of Fu... · PMF Show
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