The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.

4held up → 1didn’t hold up → 0partly held up →
80%of resolved predictions held up
Everyone Peter Walker (5)Aaron Schumm (2)Wayne Slavin (1)Sahil Phadnis (1)Russ d’Sa (1)Mike Salguero (1)Mateo Marietti (1)Josh Reeves (1)Jon Yoo (1)Jeff Wang (1)Isaiah Granet (1)Helen Hastings (1)
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The record (5) every resolved claim →

Prediction Held up
Ujjainwalla: Incumbent marketing platforms will re-enter asset creation via GenAI
“Now, there is a whole new focus on content generation now with generative AI, and so I think a lot of them are going back Back to what we're doing. Cause it's sexy again. Like, hey, there's generative AI images and text, and that fits really nicely into these …”
Pierce Ujjainwalla Jul 29, 2024 ▶ 25:47 He refused to quit his job until $1M ARR—then grew to $5M ARR & closed a $25M Series A. | Pierce ... · PMF Show
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mikesell: Carbon Robotics will likely IPO within one to two years
“We seem like we're on the path, you know, where we keep doing what we're doing. We'll probably have an IPO in the next. You're too, you know, we'll, we'll, yes, we'll have a billion dollar outcome here that looks more likely every day.”
Paul Mikesell Jul 15, 2024 ▶ 50:07 He built a farming robot that shoots weeds with lasers— then closed $10M in pre-sales before ship... · PMF Show
Prediction Held up
Walker: Series A headcount will drop to 15 by year-end
“Now, it's down to 17, and I think by the end of the year, that'll be more like 15. And that's at, you know, on the day of the Series A fundraise.”
Peter Walker Nov 27, 2025 ▶ 12:52 Q3 2025 w/Carta: What you need to raise a Series A. | Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta · PMF Show
Prediction Held up
Dabble projects up to $175 million in revenue for the current year.
“We'll probably report, yeah, one 50 to one 75 in the year that we're currently in that's the US launch”
Jon Robin Dec 12, 2024 ▶ 36:52 His sports betting app went from $0 to $10M ARR in a year—& to $150M ARR in 4. Here's how he did ... · PMF Show
Prediction Held up
Fullscript will reach $900M in 2024 revenue with 800 employees
“Like, you know, we'll do a, call it, nine hundred million dollars in revenue this year with, you know, 400 teammates that are driving that from a knowledge worker play, you know, perspective and 400 distribution workers.”
Kyle Braatz Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 16:11 Every VC Rejected Him. So He Bootstrapped From $0 to $10M in 3 years | Kyle Braatz, founder of Fu... · PMF Show
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