Seshan: Software resembles filmmaking, requiring auteur taste over mere capital
“Software is not like real estate. You don't like put money in and get value out. It is a little bit more like filmmaking, where you can put a lot of money into a film, but that doesn't guarantee that the film is successful or good. There is some like auteur st…”
Reyes: Within five years, anyone will generate software on demand
“I think that the biggest thing that we're going to be surprised by is the fact that we let a sort of like priestly class of maybe two million people decide the fate of all software for all of humanity. And in three to five years, it'll be actually like unthink…”
DHH: Unlimited Resources Inevitably Produce Bloated Software
“If you have unlimited time, unlimited money and unlimited people, you're going to build a blob.”
Pomel: Software engineering is inverting from mostly writing code to mostly automating
“The point here is it's an inversion. Like, you used to mostly write, sometimes automate, and now you're going to mostly automate
Sometimes, right.”
Evans: Domain expertise differs fundamentally from software product design capability
“If you're a great accountant, or a great video editor, or a great graphic designer, or a great salesperson, or a great lawyer, those are different skills to being the person who's going to work out the right way to make a really great piece of legal discovery …”
Ross: The cost of building new software is asymptotically dropping to zero
“I think right now, like the cost of software is just asymptotically dropping to zero, a building new software, which means that the way you build a company completely changes.”
Grinberg: Software engineers will build automated factories rather than write code
“The future of software development is where these organizations, instead of having engineers, That build the software. They're going to have engineers that build the factories that build their software.”
Koratana: Cursor and AI tools increase development pace 5x to 10x
“As cloud code comes in, as cursor comes in, like we're all feeling this already at all of our companies. Just the pace of development is, you know, five X, 10 X.”
Koratana: Enterprise SRE teams are underwater from software development pace
“I don't know if I've met an enterprise SRE team or an enterprise support team that says, oh yeah, actually we're well sapped, right? Like they're just, everybody's underwater. And they're becoming more and more underwater because like the, again, the pace of d…”
Outcome-driven engineers will thrive; craft-focused coders will struggle in the AI era
“The people that like coding because of what, how powerful it is, those people will thrive in, in this era. And I think people who like coding for the craft of coding will Probably have a bad time because that's not gonna be like the biggest thing in coding any…”
Rieseberg: Software creation skills will shift from code to human language
“My prediction is going to be That we are going to have a lot more software. That software is probably going to be slightly more specialized. I don't think everyone is going to build their own software. I think people will still build things and, like, share th…”
Kaplan: English specifications will eventually replace code as the source of truth
“And eventually, you know, are we going to like have English as a source of truth and people are just going to be collaborating on specs? Yes.”
Agarwal: Engineering and consulting proposals drive top usage on Portkey
“And we see, obviously again, software development, engineering teams using it is the highest. Knowledge work is the second, which is large consulting teams or large business teams that are preparing proposals, et cetera.”
Emergent lowers custom software development costs from $500,000 to $5,000
“And if you look at the price point that, you know, we are bringing down, it would have cost you like 500,000 dollars to build the software. Now you can build it for 5000 dollars completely on your own.”
Cannon-Brookes: Software AI gains will increase output rather than cut headcount
“But then I have kind of output-constrained work, if I think about anything creative, marketing, I would argue software development, technology, where I can theoretically do an unlimited amount of tasks, right? I'm constrained by my creativity, if you like, and…”
Ross: Cost of building new software is asymptotically dropping to zero
“The cost of software is just asymptotically dropping to zero of building new software, which means that the way you build a company completely changes.”
AI agents will disrupt general knowledge work by late 2026
“Yeah, that I'm telling you, I, that was my, in December, that was my prediction for 20, 26 on this show that what happened in software development is going to happen in knowledge worth this year. End of this year. It's happening.”
Masad: Most people wanting to build software should not learn to code
“Like, you know, I don't think you, most people who want to make things with software and computers don't need to learn how to code. It's going to be a huge cost on them. It's going to take a lot of time, but instead just jump into making things.”
Hastings: Software must be managed with inspiration rather than manufacturing-style process
“I've tried to run software like a manufacturing plant and reducing error. And putting in process. And then that doesn't get high productivity or high talent. And we should manage software much more artisanally with inspiration rather than management.”
Closed-source models will continue driving value in broad horizontal enterprise tasks
“There will be areas, for example, like software development, right, where there is so much horizontal aspect to it in terms of how it is practiced across the world. Where I do think these other approaches, like, you know, where what you bring to that is the co…”
SAP's deployed AI tools have boosted internal developer throughput up to 20%
“We're generally within 10 to 20%, even better already with the tools we've rolled out with the potential of what we just discussed a few minutes ago. I think that the potential is, is multiples of what we delivered today from a throughput perspective.”
Karp: Most software companies build addictive lock-in products, not what clients need
“What you're supposed to be doing software is build the client that the client gets addicted to, not the one they need. And like, this is like, and this is absolutely a truism in, in, in software development of any kind.”
Truell: Software engineering remains far from full automation
“Despite the headlines, despite how much demand there is in this market, and how much software's changed over the last few years, it's so far away from being automated. It's so inefficient. Building software in a professional setting, especially with, you know,…”
Kanter: Engineering leaders should prune design docs to maximum two miracles
“All software is a cascade of miracles.
Like when you look at something, you know, I think you go and vibe code for a weekend and you're like,
oh my God, you know, why doesn't my company ship more?
Because I just shipped all the, look at all the stuff I shipped…”
Kant: AI labs build general reasoning faster by focusing on single proxies
“To get to highly capable intelligence that can reason, that can do planning, that can understand the world. You're almost better off putting a set of blinders and focusing on, on one proxy for that.”
Lloyd: Within years, all developers will work by prompt with some automation
“Like, I think within a couple of years, you'll have everyone working by prompt and you'll have some slice of development tasks that are just like in the background, like a server error comes in or a new ticket, a user report comes in something Something is aut…”
Foody: Software development has virtually unlimited elastic demand
“Like in accounting, I think realistically we only need so much accounting in the world, right? Like maybe there's areas where we can do more and that'll be good. But it doesn't feel like the world needs a hundred times more accounting. On the other hand, in so…”
Oji Udezue: Traditional product development time ratios collapse under AI velocity
“For the last 20 years, we've had like very fixed ratios in terms of how what gets done. Like PM takes this amount of time, developers takes the amount of time, go to market takes the amount of time. And I think that contract is basically exploding because the …”
Truell: All Software Development Will Flow Through Models Within Five Years
“And I think we took a step back and realized that if we were being really consistent with our beliefs, you know, there was going to be an opportunity for all of coding to change in the next five years and for all of software development to flow through models.”
Truell: Fully transforming software engineering with AI will take decades
“AI is going to be this transformative technology maybe more so than, you know, any revolution in recent technological revolution in recent centuries, but it's going to take a couple of decades, and it's going to be this industry-wide effort where there are all…”
Robinson: Software builders eventually need to inspect code as abstractions peel back
“From what I've seen, you kind of reach a point where eventually you kind of have to look at the code and it's going to make your life a lot easier as you start to figure out how the code works. You don't need to be an expert but you can start to kind of tune t…”
Field: Design and craft are the primary differentiators in the AI era
“If you really believe that development gets easier and it's more simple to create software, it's faster to create software, then like, what is your differentiator? It's design. It's craft. It's attention to detail. It's point of view.”
Taylor: Maintenance, not prototype generation, is the true bottleneck in software
“I'm super excited about vibe coding, but I don't know, like generating a prototype has been the limiting factor in software ever. It's actually like building increasingly complex systems and actually changing them with agility. You know, if you look at the fam…”
Casado: AI marks the first time software development itself is disrupted
“This is really the first time like software development and software creation is, is being disrupted.”
Vibe coding will become a gateway drug to software development
“I think this will end up being like a gateway drug to software development.”
Wu: Lowering barrier to coding will drastically increase total software built
“And I think we're going to see something similar here where it's, you know, imagine, imagine the w w w what we will do, you know, when we get to the point where everyone can just build products and websites and apps and whatever it is of that level of quality …”
Appenzeller: Novel coding lacking AI training data is only 0.01% of development
“I think the good news is that is 0.01% of all software development, right, for the, I don't know, you know, 100,000 ERP system implementation or so, right, that we have tons of training data, and I think these tools can be very, very powerful.”
Appenzeller: System architecture will supersede low-level coding as AI advances
“Explaining the problem statement, explain the algorithmic foundations, explaining architecture, and explaining data flows getting more important, and the nitty gritty coding, you know, what's the most clever way to unrule a for loop That's a very specialized, …”
Truell: One company will build the tool creating almost all software
“I think that there will be one company and to be determined if it's going to be us, but I do think that there will be one company that builds the general tool that builds almost all the world's software. And that will be a very, very generationally big busines…”
Taylor: AI marks a software shift as significant as the GUI
“I think we should recognize that we're in this brand new era as significant as the GUI. You know, it's like a completely new era of software development.”
Weisbrot: AI builders replace $50k dev costs with $100 MVPs
“So having ideas, but not being able to build them unless I have 50,000 dollars to throw it at development. Now I've paid a hundred dollars to build an MVP of something that I can start, you know, trying to sell within a week or two. It's an amazing revolution …”
Scott: AI will render traditional product engineering teams obsolete within ten years
“It basically means, and like, I don't think this is next year, but it's probably not going to be 10 years. This whole notion that the, That, that you have teams of people who are, who, whose job is to go anticipate a bunch of very granular user needs in some n…”
Albergotti: Disrupting software development alone justifies massive investments into AI companies
“If even just software development gets totally disrupted, if that's the only thing that comes out of this, which seems like pretty likely at this point, like that's enough for, you know, for these companies to make a ton of money. It's still like a good invest…”
Golden: Many current software development and design roles will disappear
“The, a lot of those roles that are there currently, In software development, I think a lot of those will go away for sure.”
Simple complex software requires genius developers, not an army
“In order to build such a complex software, because companies are complex, to make it super easy it's more about having the right people, a few of them, a few genius guys, rather than having an army of 10,000 developers.”
Guo: Cheaper AI code generation will increase software volume, not replace developers
“If we take the cost of software and high quality software down two orders of magnitude, we're just gonna end up with more software in the world. We're not gonna end up with fewer people doing development.”
Friedberg: AI will handle software QA, UX, and marketing within 12 months
“And you fast forward 12 months and now you've got the architecture Where the AI can run its own QA testing and debugging and the AI can run its own kind of sales and marketing its own UX of the application and it can run everything.”
Garman: Developers only spend about one hour a day actively coding
“It turns out, also, developers, on average, code about one hour a day. The rest of their day is spent doing documentation. It's spent writing unit tests. It's spent writing, doing code reviews. It's spent doing, You know, going to meetings, it's spent doing up…”
Friedman: Solving software testing effectively solves software development
“We think that if you solve testing, you solve software development.”
Zhu: AI coding only feels hard if expecting one-prompt magic
“Like, if you compare with the impression that you just give a prompt and everything just work out, then it feels hard. But you kind of want to compare with how development was doing before. Now it's actually a lot easier compared with the real development.”
Kant: Software development will be first domain where AI closes human gap
“Our view of Poolside is that the first majorly economically viable capability that is going to close the gap between human intelligence and machine intelligence is software development.”
Kant: Software development will stay developer-led while becoming increasingly AI-assisted
“AI for software developers. I don't think anyone in the world anymore questions that software development moving forward is going to be a, for the foreseeable future, a developer-led, AI-assisted world, an increasingly AI-assisted world.”
Masad: Founders using AI agents will eventually need to understand code
“And then you're still gonna, at some point, have to understand the code and have to figure out how to edit it.”
Jordan Noone: Zoo sees highest adoption from combined hardware-software teams
“The people who we tend to see the most adoption from are people that see software development and hardware development side by side.”
Dave Morin says non-engineers cannot build software with plain English prompts
“For, like, the general person, you still can't just describe to people in English what you want and have it pop out the other side. Like, it's just, like, no chance. Nor will it even attempt to walk you through how to get to the other side.”
Walling: Learning to code will remain relevant over the next 15 years
“Do I believe it will still be relevant in five, 10, 15 years? Yes. People will still be making software.”
Lemieux: AI Will Increase Software Jobs by Expanding Developers Into Healthcare
“And you know, what's going to happen is we have a lot more software to write. And that's what people don't realize. Like, is there jobs in software development? Holy shit. Like healthcare agriculture et cetera, like educate, like all these places that need tec…”
Liu: The Core Problem of Software Development Is Coordination and Visibility
“And I think the core problem of software development is, is one of coordination and visibility.”
Liu: Single Developers Will Build Apps That Currently Require Large Teams
“If your goal is to build software as it exists today, then yes, I think in the future, a single human will be able to build applications that today require large numbers of people to coordinate.”
Cohen: Clients care about operational risk, not technical details
“Translate technology, sorry, business requirements to technical requirements and technical issues to business speak, because nobody wants to know, you know, when you go to the garage, you don't really care if that specific piece in the car is broken. Will the …”