Opinion
Garman: Expecting one dominant AI model is a fundamentally flawed premise
“And this is where a lot of people started, and I just think it's fundamentally the wrong way of thinking about it. Which is a lot of times people are thinking about there's just going to be this one model and I want to have the one model that's going to be the…”
Disclosure
Garman: AWS is open to hosting OpenAI and Google Gemini models
“We're always open to having OpenAI be available in AWS someday, or having Gemini models be available in AWS someday, and maybe someday we will spend more time focused on our own models, for sure.”
Assertion Supported
Garman: Trainium 2 Delivers 30% to 40% Better Price-Performance Than GPUs
“We see 30 to 40% price performance games versus our instances that are GPU powered today.”
Assertion Supported
Garman: AWS automated reasoning mathematically eliminates AI hallucinations in bounded domains
“So by that, by this kind of mechanism, you're, like, systematically able to actually mathematically prove that you got the right answer coming out of this and completely eliminate hallucinations for that area, right? It doesn't mean that we've eliminated hallu…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Garman: Small modular nuclear reactors will be major energy sources starting 2030
“We do think that you know, over the next probably starting somewhere in, in 20, 30 and beyond these small modular reactors, which is what X-energy builds, are gonna be a huge component of this.”
Disclosure
Garman: AWS Project Rainier will deploy hundreds of thousands of Trainium2 chips in 2025
“We're building together with them what we call Project Rainier and so it's using our next generation Tranium II chips, and this cluster that we're building for them in twenty-twenty-five will be five times the size, the number of exaflops that they use to trai…”
Insight
Garman: Past AI Accelerators Failed Due to Weak Software Versus NVIDIA
“I think that's one of the things where people who've tried to build Accelerated platforms before have fallen down is the software support has not been as good as Nvidia software support is fantastic.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Garman: NVIDIA treats AWS very fairly in allocating GPU supplies
“They're very fair in dealing with us and we give long-term forecasts and they tell us what they can supply.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Garman: Generative AI workloads are 50/50 today but shifting toward inference
“You know, we're still probably seeing about that ratio of fifty-fifty. I think more and more it's more inference than training, and increasingly we'll see more and more of the workload shift that way.”
Assertion Supported
Garman: Nvidia Blackwell delivers about 2.5x compute performance of H100
“I think we were expecting about two and a half times the compute performance out of the Blackwell chip that you get out of an H-one hundred”
Assertion Supported
Garman: Developers only spend about one hour a day actively coding
“It turns out, also, developers, on average, code about one hour a day. The rest of their day is spent doing documentation. It's spent writing unit tests. It's spent writing, doing code reviews. It's spent doing, You know, going to meetings, it's spent doing up…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Garman: Cloud Optimization Is Largely Finished, Funding AI and AWS Growth
“Customers, I think number one, a lot of them have been optimized, right? And there's only so much you can kind of squeeze into an Optimize place and customers are still looking for optimizations, but a lot of that work has been done and they're using some of t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Garman: Andy Jassy's bureaucracy critique applied inside AWS too
“Yeah, I think it's across across Amazon. So it wasn't specific to the rest of Amazon. It was definitely inside of AWS too.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Garman: Enterprise cloud adoption will flip from 20% today to over 80%
“But I do think, and I actually think that at a minimum I think that, that percentage could flip, and it could be eighty-twenty versus 28 where it is today, or even less.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Garman: AWS S3 currently stores 400 trillion objects
“Today, S-Tree actually stores 400 trillion objects.”
Disclosure
Garman: AWS to launch Blackwell-based EC2 P6 instances in early 2025
“We're going to announce that the P six, which is the Blackwell based instance that's coming early next year.”
Disclosure
Garman: AWS uses automated reasoning internally to verify IAM permission changes
“We actually use it internally to make sure that our permissioning system is actually, when you change permissions, that it's actually behaving as expected.”
