Economy

“So the much, I think, to the surprise of both the tech world and the political world, they're, they've been driven in on each other. And there's a kind of renationalization of tech and of the economy that we see.”

“I mean, I really think, I think we're at this, like, amazing moment in the world where the bottleneck is not the progress of the AI models. The bottleneck is diffusing that through the rest of the world and helping the world adapt to this amazing technology th…”

“I think startups are really like the main thing that keeps the economy from becoming stagnant. I think companies do just like drift towards suckiness, and startups will continue to be important forever.”

“Even if we do that, you'll still have a revolution in the economy. You'll still have a revolution in the way things happen because the, Limiting factors now are not the technology, it's diffusion of the technology into the economy.”

“They are the true oligarchs, and this is Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Ro Khanna, This is the group that is trying to coalesce power and create for themselves a system whereby they have greater influence, greater control over aspects of the economy.”

“I think you have to be a tech person today. It's such a, it's a big and growing and compounding part of the economy. It affects everything else.”

“We've built an economy where people are routinely rewarded for cutting costs, but never held accountable for the downstream brand and quality consequences of that.”

“The economy drops two percent. The furniture business will probably drop 20 or 25%. That's just been the history of, as I think, through the years. Because it's such a discretionary purchase, it gets put off first thing.”

“So I think that even with no further progress, there's still a massive shift that will happen. The economy being powered by compute and AI is still going to happen.”

“And put another way, if we paused innovation at the foundation model layer, we would still have, I think, trillions of dollars of value in the economy with current technology.”

“The issue with, the issue is like the bigger you get, I guess more scared the regulators are of you because if you succeed, they have no upside. They don't get a bigger bonus. But if you fail, like they might lose their jobs. So it's ultimately like, you know,…”

“The economy, the markets are biology. They're not math. They're not physics. They're nonlinearities. They're very complex systems. They're mutations in the system. And this idea that we can have this decimal point certainty is just absurd.”

“The most valuable thing in the economy is labor. And now we're going to be able to add more labor to the economy by producing more compute and better AI. That has never happened in the history of the economy before.”

“In terms of whether or not the economy is overheated, I think one of the best predictors of that is, is the economy getting in the way of the success of the companies. If it's not getting in the way, then I don't think it's overheated.”

“With AI that we can go back to the paradigm When I was younger, in the nineties, Alan Greenspan was able to run the economy very hot in the nineties, and because, you know, it was the IT boom, and we had this very powerful non-inflationary growth, and I think …”

“If you look at where the economy has been most stagnant, it's been in basically the heavily regulated parts of the economy.”

“Once you have general purpose humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, you can build anything. There's no actual limit to the size of the economy.”

“AI will probably benefit different parts of the economy disproportionately. There will be some parts of the economy that can essentially Where intelligence is a limiting factor to its growth and where you can absorb almost arbitrary levels of intelligence and …”

“We saw this kind of discrepancy during COVID, and it took the economies a year to get back on their footing. This time, it's going to be just as bad. I don't see how the economy doesn't grind to a standstill. These strict discrepancies are going to be very uni…”

“Initially it looks like a toy by coding game games and things like that. But I think it will fundamentally change and transform the economy and my model for what we're building. It's let's build an Excel.”

“Which means we could see just a random run of the mill, 10 to 15% drawdown, right, in the markets while the market gets its head around the fact that the economy is going to grow a little slower.”

“This is a super long sales cycle, possibly the longest sales cycle of anything in the economy.”

“When a weak economy tries to pretend that it is strong by keeping the exchange rate strong, in other words, overvalued, it actually weakens the economy.”

“Government, when an economy goes above sort of 30, 32% of spending is the government, it just becomes very inefficient.”

“Demonetization is a good example. It was a shock to the economy, right? And we still not recovered fully from that shock.”

“Recessions are actually good to have every once in a while. They clean out a lot of nonsense. You know, what happens is there's a lot of resources being used for things that are not productive in the economy, and you need a sensor mechanism. You need certain t…”

“When the economy is really bad and things are going to shit, then you want to make copy or, and especially if you're selling like some sort of education service, you want to talk about moving away from pain. So during COVID a lot of market, a lot of marketing …”

“We're all competing for status in this world, and no amount of productivity in the economy will change that aspect of society or human nature, and as a consequence, we'll create an economy around the technology that exists around us to enable us to be what we'…”

“When you've spent decades Casting about and misallocating capital and running your economy into the ground. The formula for fixing it is exactly the same. You cut entitlements and you reinvigorate the economy.”

“Fresh money opportunities in private debt are really interesting, because rates have gone up, and there's a dearth of capital, particularly in the middle market. The problem with that is that the economy can't sustain itself on loans at 15%. It just won't work…”

“There's no point in history that we've had a productivity gain through technology. That didn't ultimately grow the economy. Like, it's never, ever gone the other way.”

“And my best guess is that, you know, we have Sort of stormy times for a year to a year and a half, and then things start to, dawn breaks roughly in Q to 24.”

“I don't I don't think Facebook matters that much to be honest. Well, but it matters that big tech is and they're taking matters to us, but it doesn't matter to the economy to be completely honest.”

“Supply chains, you actually see the economy eight to 12 weeks before everybody else does.”

“We will contract as an economy.”

“And then all these boomers are retiring as Chamath has pointed out over and over again, and they're going to pass down their wealth, which then creates a perfect storm. Of a ton of capital, a ton of energy, lots of new ideas, a different perspective, and the e…”

“So this is a cool paper that came out a few years ago from the Mercatus Center. And basically it looked at the level of regulation, the cumulative cost of regulation from the 19 eighties to present day. And they estimated that, you know, the economy has slowed…”

“If you have a combination of all these things, This is like a flu, which means that there'll be less ability for folks to not show up to work, which means that most of the economy will get back going.”

“Having a hard, Vax mandate on a hundred million employees of private enterprises. You know, that's going to cause I think chaos in the economy.”

“A moderate amount of inflation is completely compatible with a healthy economy, faster growth rates, and better treatment of the workers who have been sadly neglected in the US in particular.”

“The economy is very, very durable in the face of Anything up to intermediate inflation levels, three, four, five percent. It won't affect the economy, but it will knock down price earnings ratios.”

“I personally believe that when we get to herd immunity, And when the number of cases falls, you know, radically, by which I mean, I guess, you know, a few hundred a day or so, I think that we'll have a very good recovery in the economy and in employment.”

“So I'm generally like, I'm super bullish on the economy. I'm super bullish on tech.”

“There's never been a period where the economy and the stock market have been so out of sync.”

“So I think it's important that we see our economy as essentially, you know, a giant corporation where, as citizens, we are stockholders, and we should get a return On our investment that we're investing in these technologies.”

“Small, there are more small businesses that come in the market when the economy gets tight. Entrepreneurship explodes and our TAM is huge.”

“There's also a part of a lot of us who are learning for the first time that for all of our lives up until now, in the background of our culture and therefore of our psyches, what's always running is the economy. And what the economy says is you get to work and…”

“In the 2008, 2009, the pumping money into the economy that actually worked really well. Right. And we got out of that recession. Why? Because it was a financial crisis. So people didn't have enough money. You print more money, you give them more money. They go…”

“So you either can be an efficient economy, right? Or I think what you're describing there kind of lower the cost of production as much as you can. And what you give up is that resilience or that durability.”

“There are other things that the Fed and the government can do, and they'll do them all to try to bring the economy back.”

“I do believe the economic impact from this is going to be unfortunately more significant when than people are digesting yet. And this could take several quarters and well into next year for the overall economy to get started again.”

“It doesn't matter whether the economy is good or bad. What matters is the change in the direction. So markets are all about surprise.”

“A lot of people are just thinking politically, and when you ask them, how's the economy, they think, do I like the president?”

“What's happening is the economy is bifurcated, and the way to look at this is prices, the prices of products, and so there are sectors of the economy that I would describe as the fast productivity growth sectors of the economy that also tend to be the less reg…”

“I think you'll see hundreds of these that will each tackle different problems. And I think this can substantially grow the economy because you're competing with nothing.”

“If less of that type of stuff happened, that doesn't hurt our economy at all. It just shrinks the fossil fuel section and the recreational motor vehicle section, which I would argue are just drains on human productivity, really.”

“The most creative people in our economy today are the startup founders and the most daring and bold, and also frankly, the least supported are those startup founders.”

“Everybody always wants to think about AI as if it were like this huge meteor just crashing into the earth where they're like, What do we do when the AI arrives, right? And it just like, it doesn't just turn up that it doesn't work like that, right? And in fact…”