Opinion
Deeter: Cloud leaders are superseding FAANG as tech growth drivers
“Our thesis internally is that those horizons and the growth rates of those markets are starting to pull back, and that you see a changing of the guard. And it's really the cloud basket, and we pulled out six names in particular with Microsoft, Twilio, Shopify,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deeter: Microsoft Azure could challenge AWS for top cloud slot
“At this rate, it is quite possible that Azure competes for AWS for the top slot in the coming years. And we're already seeing signs of that on the enterprise side specifically.”
Opinion
Deeter: Claims of 'business as usual' in VC right now are crap
“I think the idea that it's business as usual is, is crap. I don't think any venture firm is approaching it that way. And I think anyone that's suggesting that is, is misleading at best.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Deeter: Second-tier debt lenders recalled lines in 2008, killing a startup
“In oh eight, we did see several venture debt providers, not the tier one folks, but the level below them block lines or recall lines. And in, in one very painful case in our portfolio, it killed the company, a company that should not have died because of the c…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deeter: New and fringe investors in venture and debt will suffer the most in downturn
“So I think the, it's safe to assume that the new entrance or the fringe entrance in most cases are going to be the ones most impacted. That applies to venture firms, debt firms, corporate venture firms, et cetera. There, there's even potentially the crossover …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deeter: Economic Impact Will Be Worse Than Expected, Extending Into 2021
“I do believe the economic impact from this is going to be unfortunately more significant when than people are digesting yet. And this could take several quarters and well into next year for the overall economy to get started again.”
Opinion
Deeter: IBM bought Red Hat for $33B because it was late
“Thirty-three billion dollars for Red Hat. Because IBM was jammed, they were late to the cloud party, and hybrid cloud is their attempt to be relevant again in the cloud universe.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deeter: AI Productivity Will Come From Human-Machine Pairing, Not Displacement
“You hear a lot about this idea of worker displacement around automation. Ah, we see the other side of this, though. The AI and machine learning and, ah, productivity gains that are coming in particular from this human and machine pairing. In areas where you've…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deeter: The near future belongs to human-assisted AI, not full automation
“Prediction one is that this year and in the coming few years will be the era of the human-assisted AI. Take the most valuable knowledge workers, the high wage employees across your customer base, and figure out how to help them. Figure out how to take you know…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deeter: Screenless, non-graphical interfaces will be the winning paradigm
“So we are entering an era where different interfaces, and in some case, no graphical interface, is the winning paradigm.”
Prediction Held up
Deeter: Canva and other private cloud companies will cross $1B ARR
“There are private cloud companies that now have line of sight, or in Canva's case and a few others, will be crossing the billion dollar ARR mark while still private.”
Prediction Held up
Deeter: Cloud will become dominant delivery model for all software in 3 years
“And we do believe that within the next three years, cloud will become the dominant delivery model for all of software in this enabled cloud first world.”
Insight
Deeter: Startups with fundraising momentum should prioritize speed over greed
“If you've got discussions underway and enough momentum to complete it, hit it hard and try to like finish immediately. And don't worry about optimizing price or valuation or terms bluntly, just get it done and think of that as speed over greed.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deeter: Investors will treat downturn quarters as a wash for funded startups
“The other thing though, for those of you operating businesses that are already funded and are thinking through plans is that you're going to get a hall pass on the next few quarters in, in terms of the numbers. Now that doesn't help you if you're in a fundrais…”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: The 2020 market crash is the fastest 30% decline in history
“This by contrast is the fastest 30% plus decline by the broad market in history. I mean, this beats the great depression, the oh, wait, the dot com, et cetera.”
Disclosure
Deeter: Bessemer takes zero courtesy meetings during downturn
“So we are taking no courtesy meetings right now or over the next several weeks. Any meeting we take, we legitimately think is interesting and could be an investment full stop.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deeter: Tech M&A will be extremely active and outpace IPOs in 2020
“I think the M&A market is going to be extremely active later this year and open much more aggressively than the IPO market will.”
Prediction Held up
Deeter: Public cloud industry will cross $1T market cap in a few years
“And if you extrapolate this, take 10, take a third off the growth rate, 10 full points of CAGR, we still have a line of sight to crossing that trillion dollar milestone in the next few years as an industry.”
Prediction Held up
Deeter: Stripe and Adyen will be multi-billion dollar successors
“Companies like Stripe and Adyen will certainly be multi-billion dollar successors.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deeter: SaaS applications will embed payments to expand TAM
“And so we absolutely believe That applications more and more are going to layer in payment capabilities and find that as an upsell driver that's a hidden gem and massively expand your market size as a result.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deeter: Screenless Interfaces Will Increasingly Drive Enterprise SaaS Success
“In enterprise applications, we absolutely believe that screen lists will increasingly lead to success.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deeter: The next wave of SaaS businesses will define the 2020s
“What you see is this next mountain of SaaS businesses being created that we believe will be the story of the next decade.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Cloud unicorns grew 74% year-over-year at over one per week
“And so, in just a one year time period, there was a 74% increase in cloud unicorns, and almost, ah, a new unicorn in the industry is being created per day right now, and in the cloud industry, it was at a rate of more than one per week.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Telehealth visits experienced a 300x increase during COVID-19
“This is an example of telehealth that has skyrocketed given the cloud And COVID combination, a 300 X increase in telehealth visits.”