The Ledger, every show

“Foundation models, 90%. Application layer, 70%. And in the incumbents, the value going into the incumbents, only 20%.”

“So here at figure what's so, so at a high level, the biggest company, the next 1015 years in the world will be human, like AI powered humanoids. That like, that's for sure going to happen.”

“If one is to take China's policy literally, and probably one should then there will be some forceful force will be used for, you know to incorporate Taiwan into China.”

“I believe demonstrating positive energy by 25, maybe 26, will be also 10 X faster.”

“My own view, and I've said this many times, is that what Samuel Johnson said about second marriage is true about soft landings. They represent the triumph of hope over experience, and I don't think we're likely to be able to bring inflation down to its target …”

“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years.”

“India, all of the outsourcing jobs in programming will go, because GPT-IV can go level three Google programmer exam and pass it.”

“Why would you need a human for that if the AI gets better and better at coding? Just tell it what you want. I want to create an app for 20 minute VC that has these features. Of course it will go and build it automatically. Where is the human coder in that?”

“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. ... I think it's going to be us, NVIDIA Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”

“Well, so first of all, there is no question that eventually AI systems will understand the world in similar ways that, that humans do perhaps better ways but there will not be autoregressive large language models as a type that we're now talking about.”

“Powell is crashing the plane, and SVB and FRC and others were just positioned near the front of the plane. Okay. So like everybody's gonna die is my point.”

“What I do think is I think that there is probably enough strength among grays and reds to prevent a complete repeat of executive order. Six one Oh two. I think it's going to be attempted.”

“With the result that I think is quite likely that the Russians will be willing to use a tactical nuke to prevent their total defeat.”

“Okay, so now of those 1276 private equity funds, or growth funds, or crossover funds, how many do you think have actually managed to return more than 2.3 times the money? 22 of them.”

“We're the biggest social commerce marketplace in the western world. We've had the biggest IPO ever.”

“There's a lot of engineering stuff we got to get over to make it work at scale, which there's about a 150 companies doing today, but they're going to succeed. And as a result, we're going to be able to replace all of animal agriculture this century.”

“I think in 10 years from now, Amazon and Alibaba will not be the biggest e-commerce companies anymore. They will get disrupted by other companies, younger companies, more creative, more agile companies, and I think people will look back at Amazon and Alibaba l…”

“And if I was a betting man, end of decade, these four monopolies will not exist.”

“They're ultimately a logistics company where on one side are people who want to do things for money, and on the other side are people who want to pay for services. So they're going to be an entire slice of kind of the world's, you know, GDP at some point. So, …”

“Well, I don't think if a kid is born now, by the time they are 20 years old, they will ever work. By then, I think AI will be at a point where humans don't work.”

“I think that the millennium prize will get solved or proved or delivered probably this year, if not like this week, it feels like all of the different labs are like, Put a million dollars of inference on this. Put a million dollars of inference on this. There …”

“If Zuck expired, Meta's stock price would increase.”

“Cognition raising round at forty six billion dollars reportedly. They will end the year at 1.6 billion in ARR. Currently doing 800 to 900.”

“Elon said that he and Jensen have co-designed a Reuben rack. And there, it's gonna launch in the fourth quarter of 27.”

“Then the next big thing is going to happen around 2030 to 20 32. And that's really where social security doesn't have any money to pay anymore. And I think during that era is also when a lot of the states are going to become bankrupt. We're not going to be abl…”

“But then that actually really happens by sort of early in 20, 28, like SWE is fully automated. SWE within AI companies is fully automated.”

“We're going to have American boots back on the moon in 28. We said we're going to have a nuclear reactor in space by 28. We're going to have the first elements of a moon base by twenty-thirty. These are like big, bold bets that take a decade to accomplish, and…”

“An open source ban is coming. They're not going to call it that. You know what they're going to say? They're going to say that we simply have to apply the same standards to open models that we apply to close.”

“And so I think there will be more software engineers in the world. we will need few of that, fewer of them to do the things we're already doing.”

“Which is why I do think in some future world, maybe not five years, but 15 or 20 years, Everyone's going to be like Harry. Nobody's going to own a car. Nobody's going to have their driver's license because you'll be able to get around. And I think bikes and sc…”

“I think ultimately it's in both of their interests to put their vehicles on our network, even if they have their own robo taxi apps or their own one P apps, even if they work with our competitors on the rideshare side or on the delivery side. I think everyone …”

“And we will get it down to minutes. This company will get, we'll get to the point where we have a new reactor turning on every few minutes.”

“And, you know, we're sitting here right now, you know, less than three years from the founding of the company, and I think if you look back at 10 years in 10 years from now, and, you know, Valor's worth five hundred billion, something like that you will be abl…”

“I know that nuclear fission will make energy a thousand times cheaper than it is today. Somebody will do that.”

“The green stuff can't scale in the short term. It's all gas powered for the new data centers. That's the only way to kind of get the amount of scale that you need in the next year or two.”

“They will go public because this is peak brass ring moment, and you know, you could argue the trends in 27 are tougher. You've pulled ahead of ChatGPT, so just put a nail in the entropic pit, right? You've pulled ahead of ChatGPT comfortably, OpenAI, to a poin…”

“You have to see around a hundred million fold growth over the next six years in terms of tokens. Is it possible? Absolutely. It's possible. Is it likely? No, it's not likely, but it could happen.”

“The latest we heard is Anthropic is now over eighty billion of ARR. Started the year at 10. It had forecast a hundred billion as exit ARR for the year, and most people said that that would be impossible to achieve. Now it looks like they're gonna do it with a …”

“I want to build a company that's called fifty billion dollars. I can do that. If there's an eight hundred billion dollar size, I can take six percent of that through acquisition and through organic growth. I can get to fifty billion dollars.”

“We estimate that in the next four or five years, by 2030, AI will need the incremental power of the whole of India and the incremental drinking water of the whole of the United States.”

“By the time, like any of these SMRs actually get near production, the TCO of solar will be like, 10 or 12 dollars per megawatt hour, and it will be 80% of all the power generation.”

“That reactor won't even get turned on until 2030. The entire world will be covered by solar by then, so it won't matter.”

“And I'll make this prediction here, that you're going to see some of the major customers Of Anthropic and major customers of OpenAI. I'm talking about the eight and nine figure customers, people spending fifty million, a hundred million a year. They're leaving…”

“I do think fundamentally that the conversion of that data into what I would call knowledge and ultimately the ability to create new outcomes from that knowledge that are not copyrighted, that are not copies of the original material, I do think is going to end …”

“Giving that little nugget to the world, starting to seed that idea, and I think it's almost, it has to happen, because these two companies, again, Tesla has a car business, SpaceX kind of has a space business, still has an internet satellite business, but they…”

“Likely this will be one of the largest industries in the world, and it'll take longer than a couple, two, three years. It'll take less than 10, and so this will be our next hundred billion dollar business.”

“I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models.”

“I think they were expecting to end the year at sixty billion of ARR. And I think they're forecasting more like seventy five billion of exit ARR.”