Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2038
Adcock: The biggest company in 10-15 years will make AI humanoids
“So here at figure what's so, so at a high level, the biggest company, the next 1015 years in the world will be human, like AI powered humanoids. That like, that's for sure going to happen.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Hundreds of thousands of undetected guns enter US schools yearly
“Several 100,000 guns are being brought into schools in K to 12 every year in the U S and not found.”
Opinion
Adcock: Humanoid robotics is bigger and easier to scale than self-driving
“And so I think it's bigger than a self-driving industry and I think it's easier to scale it once it's working.”
Assertion Supported
Adcock: US K-12 schools average roughly one shooting per day
“Basically you have like a school shooting, like basically once per day now in the U S in K through 12.”
Assertion Supported
Adcock: US school shootings increased tenfold over the last decade
“So we basically 10 X the number of school shootings over the last like seven years or so decade.”
Insight
Adcock: Building ambitious companies is easier than building small businesses
“It's a hundred percent easier. You can hire better people because they're more ambitious and they're interested in working on harder things. They're generally larger, it could be larger outcomes. You're talking about like, you know, building like new industrie…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: General Catalyst's Joel Cutler called my Archer pitch disrespectful
“At one point I got introduced to the guy that runs like General Catalyst, Joel. And he called my pitch disrespectful.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Humanoid home robots will eventually cost several hundred dollars monthly
“We're seeing here is we're seeing the ability to get these robots over time with a high enough volumes cheaper than like a mid price card. And then if that robot can last four or five years before it's fully depreciated the cost should be pretty affordable for…”
Opinion
Adcock: Enterprise demand for functional humanoid robots is almost unbounded
“I I've never seen a business like this where we walk in and they're like, we'll buy a million of them if you could do this. And so the demand is like, I would think almost unbounded.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock predicts Figure will be valued higher than Cruise and Waymo
“I happen to think this business is probably valued bigger than Cruise and Waymo, which are like, these are a thirty billion dollar free revenue companies.”
Prediction Held up
Adcock: Figure will deploy commercial robots with major brands within 24 months
“And I think we can do these over the next like 24 months. We'll have robots in commercial. Applications with like some of the world's biggest brands.”
Disclosure
Adcock: Figure deploys in industrial settings to prepare for consumer homes
“We're going to BMW, we're going to these industrial settings, but we want to be in the home. Like, if we could be in the home today, like, home robots, we would do that. We are using the commercialization, industrialization industry as a way to get us ready an…”
Opinion
Adcock: Fisker failed twice due to poor product quality and speed
“Why has like Fisker failed twice in a row while Tesla has just been dominating? ... They didn't get the product and some of the other stuff, right? Same way Tesla did. They didn't get speed, right? And the product quality and the way they introduced in the wor…”
Insight
Adcock: Longer hardware design phases produce worse products than rapid iteration
“People think that the longer you spend designing something, the safer it'll be and the better it'll be. It's for sure wrong. Cause in that two year period of time where that one robot got out, I'm gonna have my third gen robot out. And I'll have run it like an…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Warehouses face 15% daily absenteeism and up to 150% annual turnover
“So we walk into these warehouses, manufacturing, retail, whatever, and we walk in and they're telling us that 15% of employees don't show up every day to work. They're saying they have two to three percent weekly attrition, 50 to 150% annual turnover.”
Insight
Adcock: Researchers almost always take cold calls regarding past work
“Most people in general will get on the phone with you at this point. Like if you're passionate about some work they did for years and years that they're no longer doing, like somebody's gonna take a phone call. I think most people could knock on that door and …”
Disclosure
Adcock: Cover licensed NASA tech to image weapons in 30 days
“Yeah, so we haven't announced this yet, but like it is, we have about 12 people on the project, and we own all the intellectual property from NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab. Licensed all of it. And we will have our first system brought up to start imaging weapons i…”
Opinion
Adcock: K-12 schools are the worst market for security fundraising
“Schools is like the worst market to go into. It's just a bad pitch. The schools have very low budgets.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Figure employs 120 engineers and zero program managers
“We're a 120 engineers here. We have zero program managers.”
Disclosure
Adcock: Multidisciplinary engineering teams must ban acronyms and internal jargon
“We try not to use acronyms and a software-purpose person that writes firmware, an electromagnetics person that builds, like, a rotor stator for electric motor, like, Those folks don't understand those other disciplines. Generally. So they need to communicate w…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Shipping high-quality humanoid robots will take Figure several more years
“We need to go out now and like prove that we can actually ship really high quality product, which is going to take us, you know, several more years from here.”
Assertion Supported
Adcock: Every commercial humanoid robotics attempt in history has failed
“And everybody that's attempted that, at least in human robotics, commercially has failed in history.”
Opinion
Adcock: If I Only Wanted Money, I Would Stay in Software
“Like, I think if it was just about money, I think I'd be basically probably back in software. So I think going and doing these projects I'm working on now are just probably the surest path to losing everything.”
Disclosure
Adcock nearly went personally bankrupt funding Figure in 2022
“I basically almost went personally bankrupt the last year of figure.”
Brett Adcock