The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6,334 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 83 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Currier: Nvidia and big LLM training companies will eventually go to zero
“So both Nvidia and all of these giant LM companies who are spending all this money on training are going to go to zero eventually.”
Srinivasan: Crypto will replace Yale Law, Columbia Journalism, and Kennedy School
“Crypto is not just, you know, the next wall street. It's also the next Silicon Valley because decentralized social networks and so on are built there, but even less, obviously it's the next Yale law and Columbia school of journalism and Kennedy school of gover…”
Saylor: Bitcoin Is the Greatest Corporate Treasury Asset of Our Lifetimes
“Bitcoin is an exploding asset class. It's really a, it's the greatest treasury reserve asset of our lifetimes, and it's the solution to every company's treasury problem.”
Means: The Flexner Report legally mandates siloed pharmaceutical medicine in the US
“The way medicine exists today, the guiding law in Congress is called the Flexner Report, which actually mandates that we can't look at disease holistically. We have to look at things in silos, evidence-based. We need to name a condition and then treat it with …”
Means: Stanford medical dean took $4M from opioid firms for ethics research
“Reached out to the Dean of Stanford Med School, who was a pain specialist, and we funded him directly with consulting payments, and then made a donation to Stanford to his lab for four million dollars from opioid companies to study ethics and pain management.”
Means: 15 of 19 members on 2011 NIH opioid panel took pharma payments
“The Dean of Stanford Med School who just took a bunch of money from opioid companies was appointed in 2011 to the blue ribbon panel on opioid recommendations. He shows 19 other elite academics. 15 of the 19 had direct payments from opioid companies that we Ver…”
Yanowitz: The best way for Bitcoin to really work is US collapse
“The best way for Bitcoin to really work is for the U S to collapse.”
Adcock: The biggest company in 10-15 years will make AI humanoids
“So here at figure what's so, so at a high level, the biggest company, the next 1015 years in the world will be human, like AI powered humanoids. That like, that's for sure going to happen.”
Shkreli: Drug prices should equal the averted cost of alternative care
“When you do the pricing, I think that the best logical thing to do is pick a price that the alternative care, in other words, a world without this drug, you would forego all those costs for this drug.”
Shkreli: Machines will replace human doctors entirely within 30 years
“There's, if we do our jobs right, there's no such thing as a doctor in 30 years. That every operation, every prescription, every piece of medical advice you ever get from now on comes from a machine and it costs 10 cents.”
Luckey: Apple agreed to invest $275 billion in China to stay independent
“Apple's got 95% of their manufacturing in China. They agreed to invest. They've invested hundreds of billions of dollars in manufacturing capacity there. They've agreed to invest a further two hundred and seventy five billion dollars in Chinese manufacturing i…”
Balaji: The woke movement and CCP are driving a counterattack for conformity
“What I think we have now is a strong counterattack in favor of conformity by both, you know, kind of like the woke contingent and like, you know, CCP.”
Yeung says Prenetics never produced a false positive or negative in HK
“We're the only testing provider that never had a f**k up when it came to false positives and false negatives.”
Liemandt: Trilogy cohorts were told to bet a month's salary on roulette
“At the end of our trilogy university, a hundred days, you know, if enough of the teams that hit their goals, we would take everybody to Vegas and then we would get everybody around a roulette wheel. And we'd say, you have to bet one month's salary. On the numb…”
Liemandt: Nonprofits in education cannot scale with better product quality
“Historically, everything in education has been nonprofit. And the problem with nonprofits is nonprofits are non-scalable, which is the better your product, the faster your donations go away, right?”
Liemandt: Education Is a Multi-Trillion-Dollar Market with No Competitors
“I'm going to show this is the single best market. If you're an entrepreneur to enter, it's a multi-trillion dollar market with no competitors.”
Puri: Future corporate hierarchies will invert, with humans working for AI bosses
“And I think actually it's going the other way, which is it's not that the AI works for us, but that we work for the AI. And people are going to hate that sentence, but let me just describe what that means. AI is very good at Understanding a broad set of inform…”
Puri: AI may cure death and revive cryopreserved people within 30 years
“It's not crazy that in the next 30 years that AI's gonna figure out how to, like, cure a lot of disease, death, to be able to bring back cryogenically frozen people to be alive, or to, like, upload their consciousness, upload their brain into some sort of, lik…”
Puri: Central AI will manage corporate strategy while humans become junior assistants
“The super intelligence is going to be the boss. You're going to be the junior thing. And so and that's what he's, that's what these guys are talking about, Brian Halligan and Jack Dorsey, which is that actually there'll be like a central AI that's making the k…”
Graham Weaver: AI app startups with $500M valuations will go to zero
“And they'll have two million of revenue and a five hundred million dollar valuation, and they're gonna go to zero. Like, they're gonna be worth absolutely zero.”
DHH: Apple acted like a 'greedy dick' during HEY launch
“I'm so happy. Apple chose to be such a greedy dick about it.”
Shaan Puri predicts China's elite talent pipeline will outcompete US education
“Whereas if other countries are taking this idea of, like, your job is to produce talent quickly and early, and that, like, it's, the goal is greatness, and let's be competitive about it. Like, what's going to happen over a 20 year arc, right? Like, you're goin…”
Musk: Controlling silicon intelligence a million times smarter than biology is foolish
“I'm just trying to be realistic here. If we have, if AI intelligence is vastly more, if AI is like, You know, let's say that there's a million times more silicon intelligence than there is biological. It's, I think it's, it would be foolish to assume that, tha…”
Parr: Gen Z is the first generation since 1800 with declining IQ
“Starting in 2010, They noticed a decline, and this isn't just in America. It's in Norway. They noticed there's a bunch of different countries. I think 80 different countries have actually studied the same thing. This isn't just an American thing. But starting …”
Galloway: Billionaires are generally high-character people who build allies
“I personally have found that billionaires are generally very high character people because the key to being really successful is to create allies along the way such that you're put in a room of opportunities when you're not physically there.”
Galloway: GLP-1 drugs are more transformative than AI
“I think GLP-ONE is a more transformative technology than AI.”
Galloway says most profitable companies exploit immature prefrontal cortexes of young men
“The most profitable companies are going to be the ones tapping into an immature prefrontal cortex of an American male.”
Galloway: Unsubscribing from Big Tech is the fastest way to pressure Trump
“What I've noticed is the Trump administration only walks back things when the markets move, and the fastest way to make the markets move right now is to go after the companies that are 40% of the S&P by unsubscribing from Amazon, from Apple, from Microsoft pla…”
Horowitz: Las Vegas Police reopened the Tupac murder investigation at my request
“So at the end of the dinner, I say to the chief of police, Mike Gennaro, I'm like, Mike, you ought to reopen the Tupac case, and he goes, I'll talk to the sheriff. And the next day I called me, I said, what did the sheriff say? He said, if Ben wants us to open…”
Braziel: KKR and large PE firms ruthlessly crush small bankruptcy players
“Every now and then I'll hear someone even smart friends will say, oh, well, you know, KKR is going to make sure everyone's taken care of because they don't want the bad press. I'm like, what are you talking about? It's not like Wobegon. They are going to walk …”
Puri: Functional robots will outnumber humans globally
“As soon as they have robots that can actually do functional work, they're gonna sell billions and billions. There's gonna be more robots than humans.”
Mazzeo: Human taste is not a durable moat against AI generation
“I think all these people who are, like, taste Is our salvation are going to get leased at all. It's going to hurt real. It's going to hurt real bad. They're going to run into the brick wall of consumer choice on taste.”
Lemkin: Jony Ive's $6B AI device valuation is a great bet
“And then, you know, people think this Johnny Ive thing for six billion is crazy. It's a great bet because we're going to go from 20 minutes a day, 22 minutes a day in ChatGPT to 24 hours a day in ChatGPT.”
Lemkin: Traditional B2B SaaS interfaces and CRMs are going to die
“And when we're in ChatGPT 24 hours a day, we're not going to like pull up a CRM. We're not going to use the interfaces. Like these interfaces are all Already dying. You can see it, Sam. And then the amount of time you spend in GPT, like then go to like a B to …”
Lemkin: AI means software products are no longer durable
“I used to think all these products were durable. That they were durable. Now. I don't think any of them are durable.”
Lemkin: Founders without AI clarity should cash out $5M to $10M now
“The smartest play, if you can possibly pull it off today, is to go make five or ten million, cash out, and just chill. Because you can't predict where it's gonna go. Like, this is, the world's gonna, like, whatever you could do to liquidate your assets now, th…”
Lemkin: Unemployed tech workers rejected jobs under $200k requiring direct individual work
“Enough that I had like a micro connection that had been out of work for six months and I gave them jobs. All of them in the end basically said, I want to make 200 K or more only to do meetings or manage teams. None of them were willing to do any work themselve…”
Mah: Ideas are worthless is Silicon Valley's worst advice
“I think it's some of the worst advice I've ever heard in Silicon Valley.
So what's your take?
My take is that ideas are really fricking important.
And if you have the wrong idea, you'd be a great team and you're screwed.”
Currier: MrBeast relies on weak scale effect and is vulnerable like BuzzFeed
“That's a scale effect. And it's a very weak one. Yeah, no, he's very vulnerable. Just like Buzzfeed was very vulnerable and wasn't going to go anywhere.”
Currier: Unlimited AI processing will run on phone CPUs within four years
“AI is going to be like water. You're going to get free unlimited AI processing on your CPU. On your phone within three to four years. There's no doubt it's going to free”
Currier: Sell Nvidia, buy Google and Microsoft for their distribution
“Oh, I mean, opinion is that I would sell. Yeah. NVIDIA compared to long-term, I would still be a Google and a Microsoft buyer because of the distribution.”
Currier: Zuckerberg's virtual world is still behind 2003 Second Life tech
“What Zuckerberg is trying to do right now with his virtual world is still behind what Corey Andreka and Philip were able to do with the technology in 2003 and four.”
O'Brien: Saronic's trajectory could deter China from invading Taiwan
“They're, you know, gonna make the South China Sea a hellscape and make China now wanna cross that that, that, that ocean and keep Taiwan safe if they keep going on the path they're doing”
Parr: Airbnb co-founder Joe Gebbia insisted to me that aliens are real
“Joe, look, You're worth, like, ten billion dollars. Like, if there's Illuminati, like, you are either in it, or you're friends with the people in it. Tell me one thing that, like, you guys talk about, and he looked at me, he goes, aliens are real.”