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United States

also referred to as: the us · u s · us · usa

169 statements across 106 episodes · 63 bullish · 36 bearish · 98 people on the record · first statement May 22, 2017 by Charlie Ellis · said 2,981 times in 463 episodes since 2017 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Ted Seides (451), Louis-Vincent Gave (105), James Aitken (85), Marko Papic (65), Rodrigo Bitar (46), Manny Friedman (42), Jeremy Grantham (32), Brett Barth (28)

tap a year for its mentions
0025040500802017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
040802017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
0054010802017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 230 mentions in 28 episodes 8 per episode
2025 357 mentions in 44 episodes 8 per episode
2024 290 mentions in 54 episodes 5 per episode
2023 345 mentions in 63 episodes 5 per episode
2022 465 mentions in 56 episodes 8 per episode
2021 333 mentions in 65 episodes 5 per episode
2020 316 mentions in 52 episodes 6 per episode
2019 279 mentions in 39 episodes 7 per episode
2018 197 mentions in 34 episodes 6 per episode
2017 169 mentions in 28 episodes 6 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about United States, oldest first

May 22, 2017 negative
Assertion Supported
Ellis: Over 10 years, 84% of US and 87% of UK active funds underperformed
“If you do that, in the United States, the last 10 years, 84% of actively managed mutual funds underperformed the market they chose to beat, and then just for interest, You see the same information for the UK? There, it's 87% underperformed.”
Charlie Ellis May 22, 2017 ▶ 33:49 Charley Ellis – Multiple Ways to Win (Capital Allocators, EP.08)
Aug 21, 2017 negative
Opinion
Sityodtong: Asian culture treats failed entrepreneurs as social pariahs
“Americans really love the underdog, the comeback story, the Rocky Balboa story. The American dream, you know, I think even Silicon Valley can fail a number of times and still be, end up being very wildly successful, you know, as an entrepreneur. In Asia, it's …”
Chatri Sityodtong Aug 21, 2017 ▶ 13:08 Chatri Sityodtong – Warrior Spirit (Capital Allocators, EP.22)
Oct 23, 2017 negative
Opinion
Monk: 401(k)s are like asking patients to self-medicate via WebMD
“And so we create these various iterations of defined contribution pension plans that are the equivalent of, if we took the parallel into the medical industry, it would be like saying, here's WebMD, go diagnose yourself, and here's the medicine cabinet. That yo…”
Ashby Monk Oct 23, 2017 ▶ 14:06 Ashby Monk – Asset Giant Futurist (Capital Allocators, EP.29)
Oct 23, 2017 negative
Assertion Supported
Monk: Financial services captures about 40% of US corporate profits
“We have an asset management industry and financial services industry that's capturing about 40% of all after tax corporate profit in America.”
Ashby Monk Oct 23, 2017 ▶ 23:06 Ashby Monk – Asset Giant Futurist (Capital Allocators, EP.29)
Oct 23, 2017 bullish
Opinion
Monk: Australian superannuation funds set the global standard for retirement management
“Like when you look at Australian super or first date super or CBUS, these are top notch organizations that are really setting the standard I'd almost say globally for what the next generation of retirement organizations will look like. Like I think here in the…”
Ashby Monk Oct 23, 2017 ▶ 16:58 Ashby Monk – Asset Giant Futurist (Capital Allocators, EP.29)
Nov 13, 2017 neutral
Insight
Jenkins: Investing in Asia requires personal trust over legal structuring
“Versus, I feel like sometimes in the U.S. You might be more willing to, okay, we can structure this in a way that will be protected if it doesn't, and it's, and we know how it would play out sort of in a U.S. Legal system and all of that sort of, in terms of k…”
Meredith Jenkins Nov 13, 2017 ▶ 24:38 Meredith Jenkins – A Path to Trinity (Capital Allocators, EP.31)
Jan 22, 2018
Assertion Supported
Bill Spitz Was the Top U.S. Male Amateur Ballroom Dancer in 2015
“In 2015, I was the top Student in the country. Top male amateur ball dancer in the country.”
Bill Spitz Jan 22, 2018 ▶ 48:42 Bill Spitz – Seasoned Commodore (Capital Allocators, EP.37)
Apr 23, 2018
Assertion Partly supported
The U.S. has experienced negative real interest rates in only four eras
“Since, when the United States starts as a republic, there have been four periods when the cost of money is below the rate of inflation for an extended period. The Civil War, World War I, World War II, and the last 10 years.”
Michael Cembalest Apr 23, 2018 ▶ 58:28 Michael Cembalest – Eye on the Market (Capital Allocators, EP.49)
Jul 23, 2018
Assertion Supported
Friedman: US has up to $6T in unrealized capital gains
“There's a trillion dollars of gains a year in capital gains in this country. There's probably three, four, five, six trillion dollars that are capital gains that people haven't taken.”
Manny Friedman Jul 23, 2018 ▶ 27:12 Manny Friedman – Non-Linear Financial Systems (Capital Allocators, EP.61)
Jul 23, 2018 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedman: Fannie and Freddie represented two-thirds of US GDP during 2008 crisis
“Fannie and Freddie were 10 times bigger than Lehman, yet it didn't have any knockoff impact. It was two-thirds of the GDP of the entire United States, Fannie and Freddie at the time.”
Manny Friedman Jul 23, 2018 ▶ 18:01 Manny Friedman – Non-Linear Financial Systems (Capital Allocators, EP.61)
Jul 23, 2018
Insight
Friedman: The primary US divide is urban versus rural, not partisan politics
“If you really look at the split in this country, it's not between Clinton and Trump. It's not between Republican and Democrats. So much of it is really between Urban and rule where the rule parts are left behind and that portion is increasing.”
Manny Friedman Jul 23, 2018 ▶ 34:48 Manny Friedman – Non-Linear Financial Systems (Capital Allocators, EP.61)
Jul 23, 2018 bullish
Prediction Held up
Friedman: The US will experience real wage inflation
“One view that is completely different from other people is I believe there will be real wage inflation in this country.”
Manny Friedman Jul 23, 2018 ▶ 33:04 Manny Friedman – Non-Linear Financial Systems (Capital Allocators, EP.61)
Jul 23, 2018
Prediction Held up
Friedman: US fiscal stimulus will cause big-city unskilled labor shortages
“Once you see the effect of these things, it's even gonna create in cities, in big cities, a, what we call an unskilled labor shortage.”
Manny Friedman Jul 23, 2018 ▶ 33:47 Manny Friedman – Non-Linear Financial Systems (Capital Allocators, EP.61)
Jul 30, 2018 positive
Assertion Supported
China's upper-middle class population exceeds the total US population
“Third thing is the middle class or upper middle class in China is larger than the U.S. Population.”
Charlie Ellis Jul 30, 2018 ▶ 57:45 Charley Ellis - Indexing and Its Alternatives (EP.62)
Sep 3, 2018 bullish
What-if
Williamson: Long-term behavior from US firms would have added $1T, 5M jobs
“In the United States over the decade leading up to 20 16, if the short-term companies in this country, and I know this is a big if the short-term companies in this country had been able to behave like the long-term countries, They would have created a trillion…”
Sarah Williamson Sep 3, 2018 ▶ 17:33 Sarah Williamson – Focusing Capital on the Long-Term (Capital Allocators, EP.67)
Sep 3, 2018 neutral
Assertion Supported
Williamson: Average realized duration of US CEO compensation is just 1.5 years
“The longer compensation leads to longer term behavior, but that the average duration of CEO compensation, realized duration in this country is about a year and a half.”
Sarah Williamson Sep 3, 2018 ▶ 25:47 Sarah Williamson – Focusing Capital on the Long-Term (Capital Allocators, EP.67)
Dec 17, 2018
Assertion Contradicted
China produces roughly twice as much AI research as the US
“If you look at the publication of AI research, probably two X has come from China as opposed to the US.”
Tim McCusker Dec 17, 2018 ▶ 48:28 Tim McCusker – Consistency and Creativity as CIO at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP. 80)
Feb 4, 2019 bullish
Opinion
China lacks the culture and history to attract global talent
“But they don't have the right culture. They don't have the right history to do that. We do. We have this amazing advantage that we're not taking advantage of.”
Steve Kuhn Feb 4, 2019 ▶ 50:57 Steve Kuhn – Life After Hedge Funds (Capital Allocators, EP.85)
Feb 4, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Smarter US immigration policy could boost GDP growth by 3% annually
“If we had a smarter immigration policy, I think we could boost our GDP by another three percent a year. So if we're at four percent GDP now, I think we can get to seven.”
Steve Kuhn Feb 4, 2019 ▶ 40:42 Steve Kuhn – Life After Hedge Funds (Capital Allocators, EP.85)
Feb 11, 2019 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
US Is Unique in Keeping Public Pensions Embedded Inside Government
“The USA is about the only place Where particularly the pension plan asset management side is still very much part of the governmental entity. We're definitely in the org chart under the executive branch of California state government, right there with CalPERS …”
Chris Ailman Feb 11, 2019 ▶ 9:10 Chris Ailman – CalSTRS' Venerable CIO (Capital Allocators, EP.86)
Mar 18, 2019 bullish
Opinion
Friedman: Opportunity Zones are the biggest capital reallocation effort in his lifetime
“It's the biggest thing I've ever seen in my lifetime. To reallocate capital and let it flow and let it change the different parts of the country and let it equalize the economic areas of the country.”
Manny Friedman Mar 18, 2019 ▶ 7:14 Manny Friedman – EJF on Economic Opportunity Zones (EP.91)
Mar 18, 2019 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Opportunity Zones cover 10% of U.S. land and 12% of population
“So in fact, it's 10% of the entire United States is an opportunity zone. That's in every city, every state, every rural area, all of Puerto Rico. So it's everywhere. That's the first thing, and it covers 12% of the population.”
Manny Friedman Mar 18, 2019 ▶ 11:53 Manny Friedman – EJF on Economic Opportunity Zones (EP.91)
Mar 18, 2019 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Friedman: Port of Savannah is North America's fastest-growing port and 12% of GDP
“Savannah's the fastest growing port in North America. Period. No one's ever seen anything like it. It's now 12% of the GDP of the United States.”
Manny Friedman Mar 18, 2019 ▶ 23:28 Manny Friedman – EJF on Economic Opportunity Zones (EP.91)
Mar 25, 2019 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
US-China tech decoupling will drive global markets for the next decade
“China and the US are in a trade war, and probably more importantly, embarking on something which I think has historic implications, or at least for the next 10 years, but it's this relationship from a technology basis with the two technology powers on the plan…”
Jordi Visser Mar 25, 2019 ▶ 44:26 Jordi Visser – Next Generation of Manager Allocation (Capital Allocators, EP.92)
May 20, 2019 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Recker: Only four US state pension plans use sole fiduciary model
“At Michigan, it's a sole fiduciary state, which is very interesting. There's only four in the United States. For the state plans. And so that means the state treasurer is basically the fiduciary and makes all the decisions.”
Tim Recker May 20, 2019 ▶ 23:44 Tim Recker - Concentration at the James Irvine Foundation (Capital Allocators, EP.100)
Aug 19, 2019
Assertion Partly supported
Druley: Impact investing demand is larger in Europe than the US
“And it's as big as it is in the U.S., it's even A bigger deal in the UK and Europe.”
David Druley Aug 19, 2019 ▶ 31:22 David Druley – Structure into Action at Cambridge Associates (Capital Allocators, EP. 106)
Sep 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Companies Staying Private Longer Actively Hurts the United States
“I think it's a bad trend for our country. Selfishly, it's very good for people who are investors in or who have access to private capital because I think more and more of that appreciation will accrue there, but it's not a good thing for our country.”
Scott Kupor Sep 2, 2019 ▶ 48:18 Scott Kupor - Andreessen Horowitz (First Meeting EP.07)
Oct 21, 2019 neutral
Insight
Marshall: US Equity Multiples Are Higher Due to Lighter Corporate Regulation
“So in the United States, especially in the last 30 years, it's been basically very light regulation, and the corporate sector gets to do a lot of things. Whereas in the rest of the world, that doesn't happen. And so you see, in some ways, that's why multiples …”
Ana Marshall Oct 21, 2019 ▶ 13:04 Ana Marshall – Applied Direct Investing at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation (Capital Allocators, EP.111)
Oct 21, 2019 neutral
Opinion
Marshall: Corporate activist campaigns will not change Korean corporate governance systems
“And so the purpose of a corporation was different, very different in Korea than it is in the United States. And so you have to understand those nuances to understand that they will never, no matter how much Corporate raiders and campaigns are there. For the Ko…”
Ana Marshall Oct 21, 2019 ▶ 12:14 Ana Marshall – Applied Direct Investing at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation (Capital Allocators, EP.111)
Oct 21, 2019 neutral
Insight
Marshall: China Blended Capitalism With Nationalism Without Losing State Control
“Whereas what they have done is they have blended the system, the nationalist system they had with elements of capitalism, but without losing that element of control.”
Ana Marshall Oct 21, 2019 ▶ 14:28 Ana Marshall – Applied Direct Investing at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation (Capital Allocators, EP.111)
Oct 28, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
Fontana: Europe produces more AI research than the US or China
“There's more AI research coming out of Europe than anywhere in the world. More than the US, more than China.”
Ash Fontana Oct 28, 2019 ▶ 28:57 Ash Fontana – Investing in Artificial Intelligence at Zetta Ventures (First Meeting, EP.11)
Nov 18, 2019 positive
Disclosure
Rattner: Willett backs more female-led private managers in China than the US
“I'll make one observation you didn't ask about, but it does, I found it fascinating, which is that we have more investment managers in China on the private side with a senior partner or the CEO of the firm as a woman than we have here, because here we have zer…”
Steve Rattner Nov 18, 2019 ▶ 46:31 Steve Rattner – Overseeing Michael Bloomberg's Family Office (Capital Allocators, EP.113)
Nov 18, 2019 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rattner: China lacks true private equity and remains primarily a venture market
“There isn't really a true private equity market in China yet. It's more of a growth equity and venture market, and probably also cheaper than the US.”
Steve Rattner Nov 18, 2019 ▶ 44:15 Steve Rattner – Overseeing Michael Bloomberg's Family Office (Capital Allocators, EP.113)
Nov 25, 2019 neutral
Insight
Market Behavioral Biases Are Identical Across the US, Europe, and Asia
“The behavioral stuff's all the same. We all make the same mistakes. I have the same biases that I try to shed and my team tries to shed. Mr. Market has the same biases. They overreact to bad news and vivid recent information. They underreact to things which di…”
Drew Dickson Nov 25, 2019 ▶ 19:59 Drew Dickson – Blending Behavior and Fundamentals at Albert Bridge Capital (First Meeting, EP.13)
Jan 20, 2020
Disclosure
Clarkson: Sapphire allocates ~70% to US, 20-25% to Europe, remainder to Israel
“And so one of the early decisions we made was, loosely speaking, we're about 70% U.S., and then about 20 to 25% Europe, and the remainder in Israel.”
Beezer Clarkson Jan 20, 2020 ▶ 21:57 Beezer Clarkson – Sapphire Gem of Early Stage Venture (Capital Allocators, EP.120)
Jan 27, 2020 neutral
Opinion
Seides: US capital remains in active strategies largely from tradition
“My hunch is that there's still a very large universe of dollars that should be a natural audience for index funds in the US, but are still in some more active strategy, mostly Owing to that history and tradition, and less the conscious decision that a low cost…”
Ted Seides Jan 27, 2020 ▶ 29:32 Ted Seides – A Rational Reminder (Capital Allocators, EP.121)
Feb 10, 2020 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Aitken: Core US-China trade war issues are impossible to resolve
“The trade war is not easy to resolve. We've probably got it what I think of as a phase 0.5 deal. The bare minimum coming very soon. A bigly good signing ceremony and, you know, the usual circus and theater as we come to expect. But the rest of it's impossible …”
James Aitken Feb 10, 2020 ▶ 43:25 James Aitken – Tour Around the World from a Small Island (Capital Allocators, EP.122)
Feb 17, 2020 negative
Assertion Supported
Value investing advocates have been wrong for nine years in the US
“And all of these quantitatively educated CFA people that know the names Fama in French are saying, no, no, growth doesn't work by value. And you know what? They've been wrong now for nine years in the United States.”
Dan Rasmussen Feb 17, 2020 ▶ 49:20 Dan Rasmussen – Private Equity Risk and Public Equity Opportunity at Verdad Advisers (First Meeting, EP.15)
Mar 2, 2020 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mauzé: China Has Leapfrogged the US in Online Retail Distribution
“Now it's kind of leapfrogged. The United States in terms of their distribution with what they're doing online.”
Mike Mauze Mar 2, 2020 ▶ 43:24 Mike Mauzé - Escape Velocity for CPG Brands at VMG Partners (First Meeting, EP.16)
Mar 2, 2020 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mauzé: US Brands Entering China Outperform Chinese Brands Entering the US
“So much more of the US brand going over there. I think there is a sense over there of the US quality of the brands and trying to have that kind of Western experience in certain categories.”
Mike Mauze Mar 2, 2020 ▶ 44:20 Mike Mauzé - Escape Velocity for CPG Brands at VMG Partners (First Meeting, EP.16)
Mar 2, 2020 positive
Disclosure
Mauzé: VMG Partnered with Hillhouse Capital on Cross-Border Consumer Deals
“We formed a partnership with Hill House Capital, where we have invested in certain brands that they've identified over in China, And they've invested with certain of our portfolio companies here in the U.S. That we could bring over to China.”
Mike Mauze Mar 2, 2020 ▶ 42:37 Mike Mauzé - Escape Velocity for CPG Brands at VMG Partners (First Meeting, EP.16)
Mar 16, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fleming: US institutional ESG adoption will significantly accelerate, following Europe
“We think that this is a time when the U.S. Is going to follow. It's not always the case when you're looking at whether it's investing or lots of other things in life, but it's so compelling in Europe and so important and now being talked about everywhere in th…”
Greg Fleming Mar 16, 2020 ▶ 38:04 Greg Fleming – Building and Running Rockefeller Capital Management (Capital Allocators, EP.125)
Mar 18, 2020 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Aitken: US will likely implement yield curve control and semi-permanent QE
“We're going to have interest rates at very low levels. We're probably going to have some element of yield curve control in the United States. I don't know yet, but some element of asset purchases are going to be semi-permanent from the Fed, which probably serv…”
James Aitken Mar 18, 2020 ▶ 29:37 James Aitken – Systemic Risk in a Crisis (Capital Allocators, EP.126)
May 11, 2020 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Siegel: Global GDP per capita today matches the US in 1949
“The world GDP per capita in purchasing power terms is around 16 to 18,000 dollars. That's what the United States was in 1949 when we were unquestionably a first world country.”
Larry Siegel May 11, 2020 ▶ 51:04 Laurence Siegel – Current Myths and Long-Term Optimism (Capital Allocators, EP.137)
May 11, 2020 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2040
Siegel: Global economic growth will match or exceed historical 3.5% rate
“Meanwhile, global growth should proceed around three and a half. Which is the historical rate. I think it'll be better, actually, because we have been in a slow period for the United States.”
Larry Siegel May 11, 2020 ▶ 43:40 Laurence Siegel – Current Myths and Long-Term Optimism (Capital Allocators, EP.137)
May 11, 2020 neutral
Assertion Supported
Siegel: Top 20 non-US countries roughly equal the US in market cap
“If you add up the next 20 countries, Japan, Hong Kong, France, India, Canada, the UK, and so forth, you get to 30 trillion dollars, almost exactly the same as the United States.”
Larry Siegel May 11, 2020 ▶ 22:24 Laurence Siegel – Current Myths and Long-Term Optimism (Capital Allocators, EP.137)
May 11, 2020 bullish
Opinion
Siegel: Non-US global stock markets look like a bargain
“In the rest of the world, I think the whole global stock market, ex-US, and maybe one or two countries, feels like a bargain to me.”
Larry Siegel May 11, 2020 ▶ 13:13 Laurence Siegel – Current Myths and Long-Term Optimism (Capital Allocators, EP.137)
Jun 1, 2020 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Futch says US drug pricing headwinds spare only oncology and orphan diseases
“Pricing headwinds in the U.S. That really applies to almost all therapeutic categories other than Orphan and oncology.”
Clark Futch Jun 1, 2020 ▶ 46:39 Clarke Futch – Healthcare Royalty Partners (First Meeting, EP.20)
Jun 8, 2020 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cromwell: Sustainable investing regulation leads in Europe, Australia, and Canada over US
“Europe is very active and hard to came up with, I will say, and some of it is by country, and some of it is at the EU level, and we see similar activity in Australia, for example, and in Canada, less so in the US.”
Wendy Cromwell Jun 8, 2020 ▶ 1:02:40 Sustainable Investing 1: Wendy Cromwell – The $170 Trillion Opportunity (Capital Allocators, EP.139)
Jun 8, 2020 negative
Opinion
Cromwell: The US is a laggard in sustainable investing adoption
“I put the U S as a laggard in this category with a lot of evolution over the last year and a lot of momentum over the last year and this big inflection point.”
Wendy Cromwell Jun 8, 2020 ▶ 1:05:48 Sustainable Investing 1: Wendy Cromwell – The $170 Trillion Opportunity (Capital Allocators, EP.139)
Jun 15, 2020 negative
Opinion
Bob Litterman views the US as the main obstacle to climate coordination.
“I think the US is by far the stumbling block in terms of global coordination today. Europe and China And the rest of the world, frankly, are ready to move and are waiting for the US.”
Bob Litterman Jun 15, 2020 ▶ 24:24 Sustainable Investing 3: Bob Litterman – Pricing Climate Risk (Capital Allocators, EP.141)
Jul 20, 2020 positive
Assertion Supported
The decline in public companies is strictly a Western phenomenon
“Again, it is a US and perhaps European phenomenon. You are still seeing lots of IPOs and new companies. Accessing public markets in China and emerging markets, and we think that's good.”
Taimur Hyat Jul 20, 2020 ▶ 33:58 Taimur Hyat – After the Great Lockdown (Capital Allocators, EP.149)
Aug 27, 2020
Assertion Supported
Duncan: US produces 85% of its food domestically but wastes 30-50%
“So in the US, 85% of our food supply is produced within the country. And we waste a fair amount of food, too. The estimates on wasted food are somewhere around 30 to 50% of our food goes to waste.”
Storm Duncan Aug 27, 2020 ▶ 11:03 SPECIAL EPISODE – Introducing Invisible Forces Podcast
Sep 21, 2020 negative
Opinion
Hedge fund egos are worse in America where wealth equals worth
“It's a very, it's a pretty ego driven industry for management, especially the hedge fund. And I would say it's even worse in the U S than the UK, because in the U S people equate your wealth with your worth.”
Sir Paul Marshall Sep 21, 2020 ▶ 42:40 Paul Marshall – 10 ½ Lessons from 23 years at Marshall Wace (Capital Allocators, EP.157)
Sep 21, 2020 positive
Opinion
China's 85% retail market offers better theoretical alpha than the US
“That leads you therefore to look at China as a better source of alpha, theoretically at least, than the United States. Which is the most professionalized market.”
Sir Paul Marshall Sep 21, 2020 ▶ 23:41 Paul Marshall – 10 ½ Lessons from 23 years at Marshall Wace (Capital Allocators, EP.157)
Oct 12, 2020 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chabran: 80% of US Companies Use Non-Bank Financing Versus 20% in Europe
“The very fact that, you know, the numbers 80% of the companies are non-bank finance in the U.S., when in Europe, the contrary, it's 20%.”
Mathieu Chabran Oct 12, 2020 ▶ 47:59 Mathieu Chabran – Good Deals Have No Wheels at Tikehau Capital (First Meeting, EP.23)
Oct 26, 2020 neutral
Prediction Held up
Papic: Trump and Biden will both maintain elevated fiscal spending
“I think both of them are likely to pursue very similar policies that keep fiscal thrust, the G in the GDP equation, at a much elevated level than the last cycle for sure.”
Marko Papic Oct 26, 2020 ▶ 20:56 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Alpha at Clocktower Group (Capital Allocators, EP.161)
Oct 26, 2020 bullish
Prediction Held up
Papic: US-China yield divergence will favor carry trades in China
“So the yield divergence between US and China is going to favor carry trades in China because they're adopting far less stimulative policies.”
Marko Papic Oct 26, 2020 ▶ 32:53 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Alpha at Clocktower Group (Capital Allocators, EP.161)
Oct 26, 2020 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: US Will Not Sever Economic Relationship with China
“Eventually American policymakers realize this is a constraint, this is a huge constraint, that they cannot sever their economic relationship from China, because if they do, somebody else will pick up the benefits, the revenues.”
Marko Papic Oct 26, 2020 ▶ 29:32 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Alpha at Clocktower Group (Capital Allocators, EP.161)
Oct 26, 2020 neutral
Insight
Papic: Two Mega Tailwinds Drove Global Markets From 1980 to 2010
“They were the wind in our sails from 1980 until 2010. You had these two really important mega trends. One was American hegemony, and so you could kind of ignore the geopolitical stuff like, you know, Azerbaijan, Armenia go to war in early nineties, much less o…”
Marko Papic Oct 26, 2020 ▶ 11:45 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Alpha at Clocktower Group (Capital Allocators, EP.161)
Nov 23, 2020
Assertion Supported
Greenblatt: Top 50 urban minority students face 1-in-11 college graduation rate
“If you live in a top urban center, top 50 urban center, and you are low income or a minority, your chance of graduating college are one out of 11. We know that college graduates earn 70% more than high school graduates and high school graduates earn 30% more t…”
Joel Greenblatt Nov 23, 2020 ▶ 54:48 Joel Greenblatt – Common Sense for Value at Gotham Capital (Capital Allocators, EP.165)
Feb 22, 2021 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Unregulated, dark financial models will not be permitted in the US
“If folks want to completely live in the dark and be away from a regulatory regime or a centralized financial institution, I just don't think that functions in the US. It's just not going to.”
Rostin Behnam Feb 22, 2021 ▶ 33:12 Acting Chairman Rostin Behnam – CFTC Regulatory Perspectives on Crypto and Climate (Capital Allocators, EP.178)
Feb 22, 2021 neutral
Opinion
US regulations will apply to anything acting as a store of value
“If you're going to do business in the US, you have to understand that we are going to have a regulatory regime that functions and that applies to anything that constitutes or acts like a currency or a store of value.”
Rostin Behnam Feb 22, 2021 ▶ 32:46 Acting Chairman Rostin Behnam – CFTC Regulatory Perspectives on Crypto and Climate (Capital Allocators, EP.178)
Mar 8, 2021 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Peters: US 2021 Budget Deficit Will Reach 15% to 20%
“So when you look at the U S and you look at just the massive deficit that we ran last year, this year's deficit is going to be 15 to 20% with an economy that's actually bouncing back to life.”
Eric Peters Mar 8, 2021 ▶ 33:57 Crypto for Institutions 1: Eric Peters – The Macro Case for Bitcoin (Capital Allocators, EP.180)
Mar 8, 2021 bearish
Opinion
Peters: Bitcoin Will Not Take Over the US or EU
“This isn't Bitcoin gone wild and take over the world. I think in some nations that are very weak structurally, that could be the case. It puts a lot of pressure on them. Place like the US, not the case. Place like EU, not the case.”
Eric Peters Mar 8, 2021 ▶ 51:05 Crypto for Institutions 1: Eric Peters – The Macro Case for Bitcoin (Capital Allocators, EP.180)
Apr 5, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Garcia: About Half of US Public Pensions Offer Incentive Pay
“When you look at the public pension plan landscape in the United States, I would say about half of the pensions have the ability to pay an incentive compensation for pensions. Most are still stuck on government focused pay bands, right?”
Dominic Garcia Apr 5, 2021 ▶ 14:39 Dominic Garcia – Risk-based Investing at New Mexico PERA (Capital Allocators, EP.187)
Apr 5, 2021 positive
Opinion
Garcia: SWIB is a best-in-class public pension in the US and globally
“First of all, I think SWIB is a best-in-class public pension on a number of fronts here in the United States, and I think even globally.”
Dominic Garcia Apr 5, 2021 ▶ 9:58 Dominic Garcia – Risk-based Investing at New Mexico PERA (Capital Allocators, EP.187)
May 10, 2021
Disclosure
Alderbas: PIFSS restricts Asian allocations strictly to market-neutral funds
“In the US, it's all about execution speed and technology, and we're going to go with the startups. We're only going to go occasionally with the fundamentals that have an edge or something depreciated. Asia, we said we're going to go only with the market neutra…”
Sulaiman Alderbas May 10, 2021 ▶ 28:37 Innovation in Private Markets 3: Sulaiman Alderbas – A Massive Restart at PIFSS (Capital Allocators, EP.194)
Jul 8, 2021 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Grantham: Emerging market equities are at an unprecedented low relative valuation
“Emerging equities, emerging markets, are not only at an unprecedented low relative, but they are actually quite cheap, absolutely, compared to the US, and on their own.”
Jeremy Grantham Jul 8, 2021 ▶ 38:17 Jeremy Grantham – GMO (Manager Meetings, EP.01)
Jul 19, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
PE-owned companies account for 6% to 9% of US and European GDP
“Ballpark companies which are under ownership of a private equity owner accounts in the US, in the UK, in France for about six to nine percent of GDP.”
Virginie Morgon Jul 19, 2021 ▶ 55:11 Private Equity Masters 5: Virginie Morgon – Eurazeo (Capital Allocators, EP. 204)
Jul 22, 2021 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ford predicts post-pandemic US inflation will dissipate within a year
“I think it's going to be natural to have some level of inflation here for a period of quarters. If it was a normal, gradual, cyclical recovery, or recovery coming out of a financial crisis like what you have all experienced, I think it's very, very different f…”
Bill Ford Jul 22, 2021 ▶ 50:41 Bill Ford – General Atlantic (Manager Meetings, EP.03)
Jul 22, 2021 positive
Opinion
Ford: China is an ambitious strategic competitor, not an enemy
“I'm pro-China. I'm open about it in the sense that I admire what they've accomplished in the last 34 years. I admire where they're going as a country. They are ambitious, just like the United States is ambitious, and they are a very strong strategic competitor…”
Bill Ford Jul 22, 2021 ▶ 51:38 Bill Ford – General Atlantic (Manager Meetings, EP.03)
Jul 22, 2021 neutral
Disclosure
Ford: Half of General Atlantic's business is outside the US
“Coming up to today, about half of our business Is now outside the U S about a thirds of in emerging markets.”
Bill Ford Jul 22, 2021 ▶ 16:23 Bill Ford – General Atlantic (Manager Meetings, EP.03)
Aug 9, 2021
Assertion Partly supported
Stone Point secured charters for the largest US bank startups in history
“We got de novo charters for the biggest bank startups in the history of the United States.”
Chuck Davis Aug 9, 2021 ▶ 36:55 Private Equity Masters 8 – Chuck Davis – Stone Point Capital (Capital Allocators, EP.207)
Sep 27, 2021 negative
Opinion
Harris: China Directs Top Talent to AI While US Focuses on Apps
“They took their best and brightest, and they've been working on AI. They've been working on cybersecurity. Our best and brightest have been creating apps and games.”
Jon Harris Sep 27, 2021 ▶ 48:45 Friends Reunion – Five Allocators Riff on Investing (Capital Allocators, EP.215)
Oct 4, 2021 bearish
Insight
Sternlicht: Investors Underprice Political and Legal Risk in Emerging Markets
“One of the lessons I've learned over the last couple of years, 30 years, is we don't put enough political risk into our Like a 20 in India is not the same thing as a 20 in the United States. There's so many things that can go wrong, and the rule of law is so l…”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 41:27 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Oct 4, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Sternlicht: Land Is 65%–75% of Indian Building Costs vs. 20%–25% in US
“And in the US, probably the building, the land for a building, is going to be 20% of the cost of the building, 25. In India, it's 65, 75. So the land purchases everything.”
Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 42:13 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)
Oct 14, 2021
Disclosure
Corlett: TDM's portfolio is roughly split between US and Australian businesses
“Probably half of the investing we've done is in US-based businesses. The other half is in Australian businesses, and there's been a little bit in Canada, done a very small number of investments in Europe.”
Hamish Corlett Oct 14, 2021 ▶ 11:58 Hamish Corlett – TDM Growth Partners (Manager Meetings, EP.15)
Nov 8, 2021
Assertion Supported
Visser: Over 50% of US working population has pre-existing conditions
“Over 50% of the working population in the US has preexisting conditions.”
Jordi Visser Nov 8, 2021 ▶ 25:08 Jordi Visser – Analytics and AQ at Weiss (Capital Allocators, EP.221)
Jan 20, 2022 bullish
Assertion Supported
TOTVS Grows 20% to 25% Annually at Discount to US SaaS
“It's a subscription-based business growing top line and earnings at 20, 25% a year, trading at a big discount to the big software as a service companies in the US or in other markets.”
Florian Bartunek Jan 20, 2022 ▶ 36:20 Florian Bartunek – Equities in Brazil at Constellation Asset Management (Manager Meetings, EP.27)
Feb 21, 2022 bullish
Disclosure
Josh Wolfe: Lux Capital is investing aggressively across all defense domains
“And so we are looking at technologies and investing pretty aggressively in every facet of air, land, sea, space, and cyber, and informational, on things that can give the US and our allies advantages.”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 33:17 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Feb 28, 2022 bearish
Insight
Papic: Building US chip fabs reduces Taiwan's strategic value
“When the United States of America starts building fabs in the US, it actually reduces the strategic value of Taiwan.”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 31:09 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Feb 28, 2022 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Papic: The US and China are the only nations with Web 2.0 revolutions
“US and China are the only two countries that had this web two point O revolution. Europe doesn't have social media companies. Japan missed it completely.”
Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 28:55 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)
Apr 11, 2022 positive
Assertion Supported
Newer VC ecosystems like China are more gender diverse than the US
“And it's interesting to me that ecosystems that got started later, for example, China, are more gender diverse than the US one has been.”
Sebastian Mallaby Apr 11, 2022 ▶ 44:57 Sebastian Mallaby – The Making of the New Future in Venture, Venture is Eating the Investment World 14 (Capital Allocators, EP.245)
Apr 25, 2022 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Gave: Western sovereign bonds offer negative 3% to 5% real yields
“Today, you look at Germany, you look at France, you look at Britain, you look at Canada, you look at the US, all of these bonds now offer real yields of anywhere between minus three and minus five.”
Louis-Vincent Gave Apr 25, 2022 ▶ 14:01 Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247)
May 23, 2022
Assertion Contradicted
Libby: US flared natural gas exceeds Africa and Japan's total energy use
“There's more natural gas that gets flared in the US every year than the amount of energy consumed in Africa and Japan.”
Billy Libby May 23, 2022 ▶ 40:09 Billy Libby – Disruptive Venture Funding at Upper90 (Capital Allocators, EP.251)
Jun 27, 2022
Assertion Contradicted
Dixon: Tech and media are the United States' two main exports
“We basically have two exports in the U S right now. We have tech and media. Just look at the numbers. Those are the two killer products that we have.”
Chris Dixon Jun 27, 2022 ▶ 48:59 Chris Dixon – Frameworks and Investing at Scale (EP.258, Crypto for Institutions 2, EP.05)
Jun 27, 2022 positive
Disclosure
Dixon: Most a16z crypto portfolio companies are domiciled in the US
“Most of our companies are domiciled in the United States. We always recommend that.”
Chris Dixon Jun 27, 2022 ▶ 48:37 Chris Dixon – Frameworks and Investing at Scale (EP.258, Crypto for Institutions 2, EP.05)
Jul 11, 2022 positive
Opinion
Tiger's Short Japan, Long US Stance Was a Historically Brilliant Trade
“Back then in the nineties, the big trade that Tiger had and where Julian made tons of money was a macro trade. He did it through individual stocks, but we were short Japan and long the US. And that was a massive macro trade. It was one of the most brilliant ma…”
Rob Citrone Jul 11, 2022 ▶ 12:51 Rob Citrone – Emerging Markets, Hedge Funds, and Staying in the Game (Capital Allocators, EP.261)
Aug 18, 2022 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
U.S. investors get better access to Japanese CEOs than Tokyo-based funds
“Pre-COVID, I was actually getting better access to the senior management of Japanese companies here than I ever did in Japan.”
Howard Smith Aug 18, 2022 ▶ 23:49 Howard Smith – Japanese Equities at Indus Capital (Manager Meetings, EP.35)
Aug 29, 2022 neutral
Opinion
Bitar: Latin American Founders Often Lack US-Style Global Scale Ambition
“Normally we're like, we don't have the, in a positive sense, the ambition that you guys have, like to do things that are at a global scale. So when we began doing business a long time ago, we would think maybe smaller than we should, and just having the capaci…”
Rodrigo Bitar Aug 29, 2022 ▶ 38:50 Rodrigo Bitar – Empty Rooms: Investing in Venezuela (Capital Allocators, EP.268)
Sep 19, 2022
Disclosure
Barth: Firm invests in US rail, barges, and light manufacturing onshoring
“We've invested in shipping businesses, rail car businesses, barges, domestic transportation, infrastructure funds in the United States, funds that focus on light manufacturing here in the U.S.”
Brett Barth Sep 19, 2022 ▶ 12:26 Friends Reunion 2 – Five Allocators Riff on Investing with Meredith Jenkins, Casey Whalen, Brett Barth, Jon Harris, and Ted Seides (Capital Allocators, EP.271)
Oct 3, 2022
Assertion Partly supported
Duke: Sears once represented one percent of total US GNP
“At one point, they represented one percent of the total GNP of the United States.”
Annie Duke Oct 3, 2022 ▶ 37:17 Annie Duke – The Power of Quitting (Capital Allocators, EP.273)
Oct 6, 2022 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Acker: About a third of patients don't fill prescriptions due to co-pays
“Today, about a third of patients don't fill their prescriptions because of the co-pays that they can't afford”
Andy Acker Oct 6, 2022 ▶ 44:25 Andy Acker - Empty Rooms: Investing in Biotech at Janus Henderson (Capital Allocators, EP.274)
Oct 6, 2022 bullish
Assertion Supported
Acker: US Drug Approvals Rose Over 100% Across Five Years
“In the last five years, there have been 256 new medicines approved in the United States, and that's up over a hundred percent from where we were just 10 years ago.”
Andy Acker Oct 6, 2022 ▶ 9:02 Andy Acker - Empty Rooms: Investing in Biotech at Janus Henderson (Capital Allocators, EP.274)
Oct 10, 2022 bearish
Opinion
Gave: US tech bans on China marked the death of globalization
“It basically sounded the death of globalization, which was in my eyes, the main force for the global deflationary forces.”
Louis-Vincent Gave Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 30:17 Louis-Vincent Gave – The Case for Emerging Markets (Capital Allocators, EP.275)
Nov 7, 2022
Assertion Partly supported
Smith: A 20-year US inflation differential perfectly explains African currency depreciation
“The most important thing for us, the starting point is that if we look at any of our floating currencies over a 20 year period, the inflation differential to the US perfectly explains the depreciation.”
Colin Smith Nov 7, 2022 ▶ 34:29 Colin Smith and Farouk Miah - Empty Rooms: Investing in Africa (Capital Allocators, EP. 279)
Nov 7, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Miah: In late 2022, several African countries had lower inflation than the US and UK
“Some of our countries have inflation levels lower than the U.S. And the U.K., which I can't remember the last time that was the case.”
Farouk Miah Nov 7, 2022 ▶ 37:11 Colin Smith and Farouk Miah - Empty Rooms: Investing in Africa (Capital Allocators, EP. 279)
Nov 28, 2022 bearish
Opinion
US Venture Capital Brain Drain Keeps European Public Markets Heavy In Banks
“Europe tends to be very, very heavy into banks, insurance companies, there's a couple of great pharmas. Now, part of the problem isn't they're making, part of the problem is that any technology upstart, it starts in Germany, or starts in Berlin, or starts in t…”
Charles Van Vleet Nov 28, 2022 ▶ 23:52 Charles Van Vleet – Thinking Differently with Pensions at Textron (Capital Allocators, EP. 283)
Dec 1, 2022 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Majewski: US CLO market size is $750B to $800B
“If there's probably 750 to eight hundred billion of CLOs outstanding in the United States right now”
Tom Majewski Dec 1, 2022 ▶ 24:19 Thomas Majewski – Empty Rooms: Masterclass on CLOs at Eagle Point Credit Management (Capital Allocators, EP. 284)
Jan 23, 2023
Assertion Partly supported
Thomas: There are about 95,000 US companies with $5M–$100M in revenue
“Companies with revenue from five million to a hundred million in the US are about 95,000 companies.”
Shundrawn Thomas Jan 23, 2023 ▶ 35:26 Shundrawn Thomas - From Large Money Manager CEO to Social Impact Entrepreneur (Capital Allocators, EP. 293)
Feb 9, 2023 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Philpot: US has more navigable waterways than rest of world combined
“We have more navigable waterways than the world, rest of the world combined, and so we have the ability to move it around.”
Brian Philpot Feb 9, 2023 ▶ 32:40 Brian Philpot – Financing Farmers at AgAmerica (Capital Allocators, EP. 296)
Feb 9, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Philpot: AgAmerica is the only nationwide agricultural mortgage REIT
“We're one of the Only lenders across the lower 48 and the only mortgage REIT in America that it's in agriculture.”
Brian Philpot Feb 9, 2023 ▶ 11:54 Brian Philpot – Financing Farmers at AgAmerica (Capital Allocators, EP. 296)
Mar 6, 2023 negative
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2028
Steyer: The US is not going to adopt single-payer healthcare
“The key issue in this primary campaign seems to be whether we're going to have single payer healthcare, which anyone with a brain in their head knows we're not going to have single payer healthcare.”
Tom Steyer Mar 6, 2023 ▶ 34:46 Tom Steyer – Investing to Save Humanity (Climate Solutions EP.1, Capital Allocators EP. 300)
Mar 6, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Steyer: Americans Recycle Only 6% of Plastics as Consumption Explodes
“Even though we recycle only six percent of our plastics, the use of plastics is exploding.”
Tom Steyer Mar 6, 2023 ▶ 49:02 Tom Steyer – Investing to Save Humanity (Climate Solutions EP.1, Capital Allocators EP. 300)
Mar 27, 2023 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Rodman: All US Nuclear Waste Ever Accumulated Fits on One Football Field
“In the United States, all the nuclear waste we've ever accumulated, you know, over the last Can fit on a football field 10 feet.”
Adam Rodman Mar 27, 2023 ▶ 32:59 Adam Rodman – The Case for Nuclear (Climate Solutions EP.4, Capital Allocators EP.304)
Mar 27, 2023 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rodman: US nuclear energy has bipartisan support for first time in 40 years
“Most may not be aware, but nuclear is a bipartisan support issue for the first time in probably 40 years or so.”
Adam Rodman Mar 27, 2023 ▶ 37:12 Adam Rodman – The Case for Nuclear (Climate Solutions EP.4, Capital Allocators EP.304)
Apr 17, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Giannini: Global Tech Leaders Will Split Into Regional Entities Like Apple
“If you wanted to make money in smartphones, 20 years ago, whenever it was, you invested in Apple, and you had a global industry leader. That's not going to happen anymore. You will have Apple US, Apple China”
Mario Giannini Apr 17, 2023 ▶ 1:05:31 Mario Giannini & John Toomey – Private Equity Panel (Capital Allocators EP.309)
Jun 8, 2023
Insight
Falbe: Middle Eastern 'wasta' proves networking rivals performance in US careers
“And being in the Middle East, they have this term in Arabic called wasta. And the direct translation is influence, but what it really means is Who you know is everything. They get their job based on their uncle or their sister or their father gets them a posit…”
Jim Falbe Jun 8, 2023 ▶ 6:02 Jim Falbe – Modern Value Investing at Saguaro (Capital Allocators, EP.320)
Jul 10, 2023 positive
Prediction Held up
Aitken: Investors will absorb all US Treasury bond issuance through 2025
“Who's going to buy all these bonds that the United States is selling in 2023, 20 24, 2025 with a rising budget deficit before the recession comes? And my answer is everybody. Everybody. You give people the right incentive, the right coupon, they will buy it.”
James Aitken Jul 10, 2023 ▶ 28:54 James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326)
Jul 10, 2023
Assertion Supported
Aitken: Major US disinflations since 1951 required positive real rates
“As you look at the seven big disinflations in the United States since 1951, the end of the Treasury Fed Accord, those big disinflations only occurred unsurprisingly When the real Fed funds rate or predecessor equivalents were notably positive, which makes a lo…”
James Aitken Jul 10, 2023 ▶ 10:34 James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326)
Jul 10, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Aitken: IRA multiplier will drive US capex for years regardless of 2024 election
“And there is no overstating the profound impact of this Inflation Reduction Act. It is just starting to be felt. It seems every marginal dollar of Western capex coming into the United States, because the tax subsidies are so generous, Not to mention all the sk…”
James Aitken Jul 10, 2023 ▶ 16:25 James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326)
Jul 17, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Klarman: Western Europe Does Not Require Significant Risk Premium Over US
“The vast majority of our investments are US and Western Europe, and I don't know that Western Europe needs particularly significant risk premium over the US.”
Seth Klarman Jul 17, 2023 ▶ 1:02:38 Seth Klarman – Timeless Value Investing (EP.328)
Sep 14, 2023
Disclosure
Orbis has held some Japanese and US equities for over a decade
“We've owned some of our stocks in Japan for 20 years. I've owned some companies in the US for a decade plus.”
Adam Karr Sep 14, 2023 ▶ 33:56 Adam Karr – Extreme Alignment at Orbis (EP.338)
Oct 16, 2023 positive
Insight
Corre: EU accepts antitrust behavioral remedies because enforcement is more efficient
“And the European Union is very, very willing to accept behavioral remedies, partially because I think their enforcement mechanisms are a little bit more efficient. So if they see a problem, they can address it. Whereas in the US, the enforcement mechanisms are…”
Isaac Corre Oct 16, 2023 ▶ 40:33 Isaac Corre – Event-Driven Investing at Governors Lane (EP.344)
Oct 26, 2023 positive
Insight
US private credit firms must enter Europe via acquisition, not organic builds
“I wouldn't start a European lending business from scratch and grow it organically because I just think there's so many different countries. Each country's different. It's not like doing business in the U S so you need to have critical mass. And to me, you ente…”
Tim Lyne Oct 26, 2023 ▶ 39:25 Tim Lyne – Three Decades of Private Credit at Antares (EP.346)
Nov 20, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hutchinson: Sixth Street Owned the Largest U.S. Contiguous Organic Farm
“When I left, we were one of the largest avocado growers in the U.S. We had the largest contiguous organic farm in the United States, 35,000 acres, where we constructed a really interesting offtake agreement with General Mills.”
Chad Hutchinson Nov 20, 2023 ▶ 37:36 Chad Hutchinson – Professional Athlete to Professional Investor in Sports (EP.351)
Nov 27, 2023 bullish
Disclosure
Levy: Crow Holdings is building a nationwide solar business
“We have numerous sites that are under contract right now. We're going to build out a very large solar business across the United States. We're less than three years in, but it's clear to me now, this is working.”
Michael Levy Nov 27, 2023 ▶ 52:49 Michael Levy – Crow Family Real Estate Empire (EP.353)
Nov 27, 2023 bearish
Insight
Levy: NIMBYism has created massive housing undersupply across American income brackets
“We are so underhoused in America, the amount of nimbyism that's stopping the development Of multifamily housing. We have millions of Americans who don't have places to live, particularly, just let's call it working class, let alone the disadvantaged, but even …”
Michael Levy Nov 27, 2023 ▶ 31:50 Michael Levy – Crow Family Real Estate Empire (EP.353)
Jan 25, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Summe: Asia is four to five years ahead of US in video commerce
“If you look at Asia as an example, we think they're out four to five years in front of the U S on how to use video from a concept of engaging the consumer.”
Chad Summe Jan 25, 2024 ▶ 45:58 Chad Summe and Mike Veith – Corridor of Commerce at eGateway Capital (EP.364)
Feb 15, 2024 neutral
Insight
The geographic time lag for startup model replication has collapsed
“There used to be a time where you'd see something happening in China, let's say, and then a few years later, you'd see it in Southeast Asia, or you'd see something happen in the US, and then a couple of years later, you see it in Europe. The cadence behind tha…”
Magnus Grimeland Feb 15, 2024 ▶ 51:24 Magnus Grimeland – Day Zero Investing at Antler (EP.369)
Feb 15, 2024
Disclosure
Antler invests $250k upfront for roughly 9% equity in the US
“So for example, in the US, we invest then In cash for about nine percent equity. And then we put in another 250 K commitment for their follow on round in total of 500 K commitment, but 250 K coming in up front. And it's only us doing that round.”
Magnus Grimeland Feb 15, 2024 ▶ 28:49 Magnus Grimeland – Day Zero Investing at Antler (EP.369)
Feb 26, 2024
Assertion Supported
Milken: 77% of US AI PhD Students Are Foreign-Born
“50% of every software engineer or scientist in Silicon Valley in the last 30 or 40 years was not born in the United States. 60% of many of our medical research not born in the United States. 77% of everyone in PhD programs in AI not born in the United States.”
Michael Milken Feb 26, 2024 ▶ 1:00:52 Michael Milken – Innovations in Finance, Medicine, and Education (EP.371)
Feb 26, 2024
Assertion Supported
Milken: US Added Decade of Schooling by 1960, Now Ranks 31st
“Between 1870 and 1960, The United States added one year of formal schooling every decade, and by 1960, the U.S. Was the most educated country in the world by two years more than any other country. Since then, other countries have caught us and passed it, and s…”
Michael Milken Feb 26, 2024 ▶ 56:59 Michael Milken – Innovations in Finance, Medicine, and Education (EP.371)
Feb 26, 2024 positive
Opinion
Milken: US human capital is worth roughly $1,500 trillion
“And the human capital in the United States, if it had to be measured, I would say it would be around 1500 trillion. So we're talking 60 to 70 times the GDP of the country.”
Michael Milken Feb 26, 2024 ▶ 29:48 Michael Milken – Innovations in Finance, Medicine, and Education (EP.371)
Mar 18, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tepper: Two insurers control 90% market share in some US states
“The U S spends more on healthcare and medicine than almost any other country with worse outcomes because you have some states with two insurers having about 90% market share.”
Jonathan Tepper Mar 18, 2024 ▶ 26:04 Jonathan Tepper - Buying Monopolies at Prevatt Capital (EP.375)
Mar 18, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tepper: US corporate profit margins driven by rising industrial concentration
“It's not the only reason, but it's certainly a very important reason was the rise in industrial concentration in the U S. So the rise of monopolies, duopolies and oligopolies.”
Jonathan Tepper Mar 18, 2024 ▶ 20:21 Jonathan Tepper - Buying Monopolies at Prevatt Capital (EP.375)
May 23, 2024 bullish
Insight
Tannenbaum: Cement, power, and real estate are high-growth sectors in India
“There are growth businesses like cement, like power, like real estate, that from a US context, we say, oh, they're pretty mature sectors. In India, they're not mature at all.”
Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 37:38 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)
May 23, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Tannenbaum: 75% to 80% of Indian Large-Cap Returns Are EPS-Driven
“The other is that valuations must be expensive, and because India has had a relatively decent run, that too feels like it should be the case, but when you decompose it, yes, returns have been okay, but because earnings growth has been pretty strong for the lar…”
Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 1:03:35 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)
May 23, 2024 bullish
Insight
Tannenbaum: Fundamental research creates bigger, longer-lasting edge in India than US
“Whereas when I think about my US experience, and it doesn't matter how small the company, how novel the research approach, there are a lot of other people poring over the same idea in The differentiated edge is going to be small and short-lived. In India, some…”
Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 43:12 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)
May 27, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
The United States is seeing a surprising rise in dumb phone sales
“United States is one of the few countries in the world where we're actually seeing a rise in the sale of dumb phones”
Alexis Ohanian May 27, 2024 ▶ 36:33 Alexis Ohanian – From Reddit to 776, a Technology Company that Deploys Venture Capital (EP.388)
May 27, 2024 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
The U.S. Open women's final consistently outdraws the men's final domestically
“Year after year after year, more Americans watch the U.S. Open women's final, which is the big American tennis match, than the men, and it doesn't matter. There doesn't need to be a Williams sister in it. There doesn't need to be an American in it.”
Alexis Ohanian May 27, 2024 ▶ 1:01:10 Alexis Ohanian – From Reddit to 776, a Technology Company that Deploys Venture Capital (EP.388)
Sep 9, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
India, not the US, will be the dominant market in the 2020s
“And I don't think the U S is going to be the dominant market in this decade. At this point, it's probably going to be India.”
Jace Auby Sep 9, 2024 ▶ 57:12 Jase Auby - Risk, Size, and Talent at Texas Teachers (EP.404)
Sep 30, 2024 positive
Opinion
Salem: The US military and geopolitical alliance with Japan is vastly underestimated
“Our alliance with Japan in a military and geopolitical sense is vastly underestimated to a lesser extent with the Philippines, but emphatically with Japan.”
David Salem Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 42:27 David Salem - Investment Wisdom from the Owner's Box (EP.409)
Sep 30, 2024 negative
Opinion
Salem: Admitting China to the WTO in 2001 was a massive mistake
“Starting with China's admission to WTO in 2001 of the great policy mistakes I I think this country has ever made.”
David Salem Sep 30, 2024 ▶ 41:34 David Salem - Investment Wisdom from the Owner's Box (EP.409)
Oct 10, 2024
Insight
Gleich: Foreign Boutiques Need Decades to Build US Distribution Networks
“If you're a specialized boutique firm, it's going to be very difficult on your own to build the relationships with a network and a region as big as the US. And so if you're based in Copenhagen or in London or wherever really, It takes decades to build the netw…”
Kristof Gleich Oct 10, 2024 ▶ 36:22 Kristof Gleich – Boutique Managers and Active ETFs at Harbor Capital (EP.411)
Oct 14, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Miller: US CO2 reductions since 2005 stem largely from fracking
“The United States has reduced its CO two emissions since 2005, largely on the back of fracking and getting that natural gas molecule out.”
Matt Miller Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 50:46 Matt Miller – Crossing the Energy Divide at Grey Rock (EP.412)
Oct 14, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Miller: The US Has Between 100,000 and 1 Million Orphaned Wells
“But there's at least a 100,000, some people estimate up to a million orphan wells in the United States.”
Matt Miller Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 44:11 Matt Miller – Crossing the Energy Divide at Grey Rock (EP.412)
Oct 14, 2024
Assertion Supported
Miller: Only about 10 permanent carbon sequestration wells operate in US
“There's only 10 or something permanent sequestration wells operating in the United States right now.”
Matt Miller Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 37:49 Matt Miller – Crossing the Energy Divide at Grey Rock (EP.412)
Oct 14, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Miller: US natural gas prices are 80% lower than Europe's
“The United States, by virtue of fracking, has natural gas prices that are just structurally lower than the rest of the globe. They are 80% lower than Europe.”
Matt Miller Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 49:26 Matt Miller – Crossing the Energy Divide at Grey Rock (EP.412)
Jan 16, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sullivan: US-China tensions will worsen market beta but enrich alpha opportunities
“The changing relationship between some of the bigger countries like the U S and China and with the new administration coming in, we think many of those themes will be supercharged and again, result in a higher volatility And I think more challenging returns fo…”
Mark Sullivan Jan 16, 2025 ▶ 44:08 Mark Sullivan and Roberto Isch – Hedge Fund Investing at Wellington (EP.427)
Jan 20, 2025 positive
Assertion Contradicted
McLean: US Is One of Few Countries Meeting Paris Per Capita Targets
“The United States is really one of only a very small handful of countries that has actually lived up to Paris commitments in terms of per capita CO₂ emissions reductions.”
Jay McLean Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 59:06 Striking Oil – CrownRock by Lime Rock Capital (EP.428)
Jan 20, 2025
Assertion Supported
McLean: US active drilling rigs dropped from 1,800 to under 600
“I mean, there were 1800 rigs running in the United States at that point in time. Last week, there was less than 600 rigs running in the US.”
Jay McLean Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 24:53 Striking Oil – CrownRock by Lime Rock Capital (EP.428)
Mar 3, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
Zorub: Parsifal has shifted roughly 25% of its risk outside the US
“About a quarter of our risk today is outside the US. I think three of the last four long ideas that we put into this concentrated portfolio are international opportunities.”
David Zorub Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 53:14 David Zorub - Navigating Hedge Fund Headwinds at Parsifal (EP.434)
Apr 14, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gave: US-China negotiations will result in China leaving the Americas and US leaving Asia
“This, I think, will end up being the negotiations with China. China, you get out of the Americas, and we'll get out of Asia. That is a trade that Xi Jinping will be very happy to make.”
Louis-Vincent Gave Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 27:09 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
Apr 14, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Gave: Investors should aggressively buy undervalued Latin American assets
“That leaves me, actually, super bullish to Latin America. It was very interesting that in these tariffs, Latin America was completely spared. Not only did they get a blanket 10%, but pretty much everything they export, whether copper, silver, lithium, et ceter…”
Louis-Vincent Gave Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 27:27 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)
May 12, 2025
Assertion Supported
Matthews: 60% of UBS US wealth assets belong to ultra-high-net-worth clients
“In the US, two trillion dollars of assets under management, about 60% of those assets are in ultra high net worth assets. It's been the fastest growing client segment That we've had at our firm for the last 15 years.”
John Matthews May 12, 2025 ▶ 13:55 John Mathews – Steering the Largest Wirehouse at UBS (Private Wealth 2, EP.444)
May 12, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Matthews: Advisors typically retain 80% of clients when switching firms
“In the United States, when an advisor leaves from one firm to the other, they typically take around 80% of their clients with them.”
John Matthews May 12, 2025 ▶ 48:35 John Mathews – Steering the Largest Wirehouse at UBS (Private Wealth 2, EP.444)
May 12, 2025
Assertion Supported
Matthews: UBS manages over $6 trillion in total wealth globally
“We're the world's largest global wealth manager. We manage on our wealth platform alone over four trillion dollars. If you include our asset management company, we're over six trillion dollars of wealth around the world. 2.1 trillion of that wealth sits in the…”
John Matthews May 12, 2025 ▶ 12:47 John Mathews – Steering the Largest Wirehouse at UBS (Private Wealth 2, EP.444)
May 12, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Matthews: US clients must focus significantly more on personal and cyber security
“The rest of the world's been going through this for the last five years or a decade. We haven't, and I think we all have to be more focused on our own personal security.”
John Matthews May 12, 2025 ▶ 27:11 John Mathews – Steering the Largest Wirehouse at UBS (Private Wealth 2, EP.444)
May 12, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Matthews: UBS ranks as largest wealth manager across Asia, LatAm, and EMEA
“We're the largest wealth manager in Asia. We're the largest wealth manager now in Latin America after our Credit Suisse acquisition. And we're the fourth largest wealth manager in the United States based on assets under management from wealth clients. Also the…”
John Matthews May 12, 2025 ▶ 13:09 John Mathews – Steering the Largest Wirehouse at UBS (Private Wealth 2, EP.444)
May 12, 2025 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2032
Matthews: Women will control over 50% of US wealth by 2032
“In seven years, they're going to control over 50% of the wealth in the United States because of this baby boomer phenomenon.”
John Matthews May 12, 2025 ▶ 51:18 John Mathews – Steering the Largest Wirehouse at UBS (Private Wealth 2, EP.444)
Sep 29, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Hale: Japan ranks second globally for high-margin billion-dollar public companies
“The number one market Is the U S with about a thousand companies with over a billion market cap and above 40% gross margins. The number two market is Japan with 250. After that, you get to numbers around 50 to a hundred in countries in Europe.”
Rob Hale Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 51:24 Mason Morfit and Rob Hale – Quiet Activism at ValueAct (EP.462)
Oct 9, 2025
Assertion Supported
Mogelof: US retirement accounts hold over $40 trillion in assets
“If you were to look at the retirement market in the United States today, there is more than 40 trillion dollars of assets in, quote, retirement accounts.”
Eric Mogelof Oct 9, 2025 ▶ 6:35 Understanding the 401(k) Market – Eric Mogelof, KKR (EP.464)
Dec 8, 2025 negative
Insight
McGurk: Autocrats exploit US election cycles to outlast diplomatic pressure
“You're gonna have a new president in four years, you have a new administration, totally new policies. Whether I like them or don't like them, we're staying the course. That's how Xi Jinping thinks. That's how Putin thinks. That's how a lot of leaders around th…”
Brett McGurk Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 26:47 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
Dec 8, 2025 positive
Opinion
McGurk: Core US Foreign Policy Interests Remain Within Bipartisan Agreement
“Our interests still are, generally speaking, within a zone of agreement between both parties of whatever comes into office.”
Brett McGurk Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 27:29 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
Dec 22, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Sacerdote: Tesla S-Curve Collapsed to Zero as US Adoption Matured
“Tesla and the EVS curve was amazing, and they had a great competitive advantage, and they had underappreciated earnings power. But then that S curve went from being a 10 out of 10 to a zero out of 10 because it was mature in the USA. And the underappreciated e…”
Alex Sacerdote Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 32:54 Top 5 of 2025: #4: Alex Sacerdote
Dec 22, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Sacerdote: EV Adoption Reached 50-60% in China but Stalled at 10% in US
“The idea was that 50, 60% of cars were going to be electric. And that's happened in China. But when we hit about 10% in the US, it hit a wall.”
Alex Sacerdote Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 32:42 Top 5 of 2025: #4: Alex Sacerdote
Jan 22, 2026 bearish
Opinion
U.S. hegemony as the primary global capital magnet is over
“A target-rich environment promoted by the fact that U.S. Hegemony in terms of being a magnet for capital is over.”
Nick Rohatyn Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 17:08 Nick Rohatyn – Emerging Markets Multi-Asset Investing at TRG (EP.482)
Mar 12, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Regulatory clarity will make the US the global on-chain finance leader
“We're entering, let's say, the glory years of finally having clarity where the United States is a leader. Once we fine tune the regulations and start to build these applications on chain, the rest of the world is going to look at us as that leader.”
Ryan Lovell Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 29:53 Ryan Lovell – Chainlink: The Infrastructure Pipes for Multi-Chain Finance (EP.491)
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Opinion
Grantham: Climate Denial Is Predominantly an American Phenomenon
“You don't find climate deniers around the world. You find a few in England, all extreme right-wing libertarians, and you find a small army in the US, but that's it. This is an American thing, climate denial.”
Jeremy Grantham Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 1:17:51 Jeremy Grantham – Bubbles, Value Investing, and the Long Game at GMO (EP.493)
Mar 23, 2026 positive
Insight
Grantham: Investors forced into US equities must choose quality stocks
“If you had to own US, and a lot of people do, then you have to own quality stocks, because they have survivability.”
Jeremy Grantham Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 37:18 Jeremy Grantham – Bubbles, Value Investing, and the Long Game at GMO (EP.493)
Mar 23, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Grantham: The US stock market is completely overpriced
“The US is simply too high priced from top to toe.”
Jeremy Grantham Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 37:13 Jeremy Grantham – Bubbles, Value Investing, and the Long Game at GMO (EP.493)
Apr 6, 2026 positive
Insight
US Leads Global Interest Rate Cycles, Giving Edge to Overseas Allocators
“You quickly picked up on the fact that the US always seemed to lead interest rate cycles. If you were thinking about overseas investing, you had an edge because you could understand the dynamics of risk asset pricing because you had this underpinning of intere…”
Bruce MacDonald Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 16:53 Bruce MacDonald – The Playbook for Building a Mid-Sized Endowment from Scratch (EP.495)
Jun 15, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Wang: US Hotel Demand Has Grown ~2% Annually Since 1987
“Actually, if you go back all the way to 1987, which is as far back as you updated, you can see that demand for hotel rooms across the U.S. Has grown at just about two percent a year. For 40 years, and only ever declined in periods of global shock. So, 91 with …”
Jonathan Wang Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 14:17 Hotel Investing at EOS – Jonathan Wang (EP.506)
Jun 15, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Wang: NYC swung from world's best to America's worst hotel market
“If you go back, the most interesting and best performing hotel market In the world from 1987 to 2007 was New York City. The worst performing hotel market in the United States from 2007 to 2019 was New York City.”
Jonathan Wang Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 28:14 Hotel Investing at EOS – Jonathan Wang (EP.506)
Jul 13, 2026 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Moyo: The U.S. economy has grown to nearly twice Europe's size.
“The record, even just the past, since the financial crisis, United States and Europe were about the same size. The United States is now almost two times as big.”
Baroness Dambisa Moyo Jul 13, 2026 ▶ 46:43 Economic Growth, Governance, and Capital Allocation – Dambisa Moyo (EP.510)
Jul 13, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Moyo: UK electricity costs 40¢ per kWh versus 8¢ in China.
“Even for developed countries in other places where I always point to the UK, it's 40 cents a kilowatt hour is the energy price versus China where it's eight cents or the US where it's between 12 and 16 cents.”
Baroness Dambisa Moyo Jul 13, 2026 ▶ 52:02 Economic Growth, Governance, and Capital Allocation – Dambisa Moyo (EP.510)
Jul 16, 2026
Disclosure
Danieli: MA Financial Avoids Direct Sponsor-Backed Lending in the US
“We're not trying to do direct sponsor-backed lending here in the US. What we've done is to apply an asset-based finance way of thinking to get some exposure to that sector.”
Frank Danieli Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 42:08 Roadmap for Private Credit from Australia – Frank Danieli of MA Financial Group (EP.511)
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