Scott Kupor
Director, United States Office of Personnel Management · 1 appearance on the record.
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Scott Kupor joined Andreessen Horowitz as its first employee at inception in 2009, serving as Managing Partner. He oversaw its expansion from a $300 million fund to tens of billions in assets and currently serves as Director of the United States Office of Personnel Management.
31statements → 7claims → 4claims resolved → 100%fully supported → 3.55/5average certainty → 2.03/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated →
4 supported 0 partly supported 0 contradicted 3 not checkable as stated how the 7 claims stand · each chip opens the sources
7 assertions · 3 opinions · 16 insights · 5 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 7 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 4 are resolved, and 3 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.
The record, in short
What the tape says about how Scott argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.
Expressed certainty vs assessment result
weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet
How they sound: not measured why? →
We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Scott Kupor on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.
Everything Scott Kupor said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →
Product Visionaries Should Be CEOs to Control Resource Allocation
“And so we said, look, because these are product companies, we love the idea that the person who is the product visionary also is the CEO and therefore controls resource allocation and strategy and all this other stuff.”
Sequoia's 2008 'Rest in Peace' Doomsday Presentation Was Incorrect
“If you were around here in the valley at the end of oh eight, Sequoia, who's a very well-regarded and has been a very successful firm, Put out this presentation called Rest in Peace, and it had a skull and crossbones and a tombstone on the front of it, and the…”
a16z Rejects Consensus Voting to Avoid Reversion to the Mean
“We are decidedly not a consensus organization, so When we started, and Mark and Ben have been very true to this over time, is we said, look, we worry that if you go around the table and you ask people to vote, you end up with reversion to the mean type thinkin…”
a16z's Post-Investment Platform Team Dwarfs Its Closest Competitor
“Nobody's certainly done it at the scale that we're doing it at, so a big change in the industry over the last 10 years has been that there are more firms that are adding to their post-investment teams, which for a long time was really never part of the makeup …”
Mega-Rounds Transfer Asset Appreciation From Public to Private Markets
“I think really most of this is really just a wealth transfer of appreciation from the public markets into the private markets, and many of these people have lower costs of capital, right?”
Companies Staying Private Longer Actively Hurts the United States
“I think it's a bad trend for our country. Selfishly, it's very good for people who are investors in or who have access to private capital because I think more and more of that appreciation will accrue there, but it's not a good thing for our country.”
Biology Mirrors the State of Computer Science in the Late 1960s
“Biology is kind of where computer science was like late sixties, early seventies, which is we're about to see like this whole new set of technologies that will dramatically change the costs and the automation and the price curves for a lot of these things.”
Venture Economics Breakdown at $100 Billion in Annual LP Commitments
“You know, if we go back to 60, 70, a hundred billion, which is where we got to at the peak of 2000, then I think you get to the point where the economics of the business unfortunately probably just can't support that little activity.”
As Capital Democratizes, VCs Must Differentiate Beyond Money
“It's likely to be the case that entrepreneurs will now have more choices of which VCs to work with because there will be capital in lots of different places, and therefore something other than capital will have to be what differentiates one VC from another.”
Founder Velocity and Execution Pace Best Predict Startup Success
“The best predictor of future success is do you actually meet the milestones and deliver on the things that you said you were going to do, and obviously there are some people who are very successful who struggle at the outset, but having that relationship over …”
VC Failure Cases Stem From Board Members Overestimating Their Knowledge
“I think a lot of the failure cases in this business tend to be where I think venture capitalists overstep their bounds on the board and think they know more about the business than they actually do”
Grade Inflation Shifted Historic Series A Rounds Into Seed Rounds
“What used to be an A round is now a seed round, and what used to be a B round is now an A, and so essentially the round sizes have gotten bigger. So an A round, and I'm using air quotes here, but in the old days, right, an A round was three to five million dol…”
Expanding Round Sizes Can Destroy VC Returns Without Market Size Growth
“The disaster case for this industry would be valuations and round sizes grow, but we don't get the commensurate increase in market size, and therefore you basically just have taken that out of your returns.”
Half of Andreessen Horowitz's Venture Investments Result in Total Capital Loss
“Probably half of what we do is euphemistically what we call impaired capital, which basically means you lost all your money, right?”
'Software is Eating the World' Remains a16z's Core Investment Thesis
“So Mark Andreessen wrote this editorial many years ago called Software is Eating the World, and that's basically been our investment thesis for the last 10 years, and I think it will be our investment thesis at least for the next 10 unless the world changes, a…”
Engineer Hobbyist Activities Evolve Into Mainstream Industries
“Often there's a reasonable correlation between stuff that starts as a engineer hobbyist activity that can evolve into a mainstream area, and that's part of how we think about it.”
a16z Evaluates Founders Above Products Because Early Products Unavoidably Change
“At the early stage, it's really much more heavily geared towards entrepreneur. The reason for that, I think, is that we know that the product's gonna change, right?”
Median Time From Founding to IPO Has Doubled to 12 Years
“For the last 15 years, it's basically been 10 to 12 years, so we've almost doubled the time to stay private”
Conflicting Incentives Severely Hinder Corporate Venture Capital Programs
“Institutionally it's hard from an incentives perspective to make these corporate venture capital firms work because you always have this tension between are we a strategic investor, are we a financial investor, and can we attract the right kinds of people inte…”
a16z Missed Square After Anchoring to Early Funding Valuations
“Square is a company that we saw as early as the very, very first round, and for a variety of reasons just didn't make the decision to invest, and as often happens with these companies that are successful, every round always feels expensive after that”
a16z Initially Passed on Airbnb Before Investing at a Higher Valuation
“We did that at Airbnb. You know, we saw the very first round, and we just had lots of questions in our mind that didn't allow us to get there. We ultimately did the next round, but obviously, as you'd imagine, there's a substantial delta between the first roun…”
VCs Should Let Compelling Founders Drag Them Into New Technology Trends
“It's our job to be in front of all the interesting people who think they know what it is, and then for us to meet with them and hopefully be smart enough to allow them to drag us into places that we might not have gone because they've got some really killer id…”
Silicon Valley Absorbs 75 Percent of Andreessen Horowitz's Investment Activity
“Geographic expansion is not a big focus for the firm right now, so we're still a very heavy US-centric firm. Probably 75% of what we do is around the Silicon Valley area.”
Deal Experience Asymmetry Breeds Distrust Between Founders and VCs
“So what I find now having been in this business for 10 years and then in tech for another 15 is there's this unspoken asymmetric information between VCs and entrepreneurs. It's probably not surprising, obviously, because look, we do this thing hundreds of time…”
Appearances (1)
| Episode | Date | Speaking time |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Kupor - Andreessen Horowitz (First Meeting EP.07) | Sep 2, 2019 | 49m |