Opinion
Private Asset Obsession Destroyed Endowments' Ability to Invest Countercyclically
“Historically, endowments have done a great job of that, but in the last 10 or 15 years with the obsession of private assets, that tool has been taken out of the toolkit.”
Opinion
India Faces Severe Macro Pressures From AI Disruption and Energy Dependencies
“India right now is going through a very difficult period. It's got a double whammy now of being in the crosshairs of AI because of IT services and the huge part of their economy that that sector represents. It's got the risk that it's facing from the Iran war,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Liquidity Constraints Will Trigger Indiscriminate Selling Across Private Credit Markets
“There will be indiscriminate selling in private credit. There's good reasons why many of those companies will be sold, but there'll be many reasons where it's just liquidity that's driving prices down.”
Insight
Liquidating Legacy Portfolios Let Allocators Build Culture and Process Faster
“If you keep those portfolios, you're going to spend most of your time reviewing what's in there, slowly changing things out and adding new stuff. Whereas if you start over and start from scratch, you get to build the institutional knowledge from day one. You g…”
Insight
Secular Tailwinds Provide Margin of Safety Against Suboptimal Manager Selection
“One of the nice things about trying to invest in these secular tailwinds is you don't necessarily have to get the manager selection piece right. We like it when there's multiple ways to win in the stuff that we do. The nice thing about the secular tailwind is …”
Insight
Concentrated Secular Themes Provide Better Diversification Than Market-Cap Weighted Indices
“If you can pick some of these higher octane or more promising secular tailwinds and marry it at that total portfolio risk, You end up with a portfolio that is more robust, better diversified than the index, which as you know, is so concentrated these days.”
Insight
Sub-$200M Venture Funds Offer Asymmetric Outcomes That Established Mega-Funds Cannot Match
“We should have more managers who are at that smaller level of the fund sizes, two hundred million and below, where their outcomes could be a 50 X or an 80 X. There's good reasons to invest with established managers. You end up paying a lot in fees for returns …”
Opinion
Buyout Valuations Remain Too Extended to Offer Adequate Risk-Adjusted Returns
“What we've seen in the buyout space since we've been invested is that that's just not been true. The valuations have been extended and some of that was related to low interest rates, But even as interest rates have repriced, we haven't seen enough of a valuati…”
Opinion
Public Markets May Offer More Alpha Than Private Equity Due to Indexing
“Given the predominance of indexing in public markets and that talent vacuum into another space, there might be a lot more alpha in public markets.”
Opinion
A Taiwan Conflict Would Devastate Portfolios Due to Global AI Infrastructure
“That particular risk is one of the hugely cascading impact that would be felt across the portfolio because so much of the public and private markets are linked to the AI build out. There's no part of the portfolio that wouldn't be severely impacted by that.”
Insight
US Leads Global Interest Rate Cycles, Giving Edge to Overseas Allocators
“You quickly picked up on the fact that the US always seemed to lead interest rate cycles. If you were thinking about overseas investing, you had an edge because you could understand the dynamics of risk asset pricing because you had this underpinning of intere…”
Insight
Lone Pine's Qualitative Growth Forecasting Outperformed Quantitative Asset Pricing Models
“Being able to look at the Lone Pine portfolio and see how Steve Mandel and his team could see into the future about What these high quality businesses would be worth was eye-opening. It was a completely different model for making money than I had understood in…”
Assertion Supported
MacDonald Was Fired After UVIMCO's Endowment Dropped 20% During the GFC
“I was at UVIMCO when the GFC hit. Our five billion dollar endowment went to four billion. As the guy with risk in his title, when you lose 20%, sometimes somebody has to take the fall, and I was that person.”
Disclosure
VCIMCO Liquidated VCU's Entire Legacy Endowment Portfolio to Start From Scratch
“So we made the choice to sell everything and start from scratch. Which was a bit easier than it would be for most portfolios because there was actually no private equity at all.”
Disclosure
VCIMCO Initially Held ETFs Before Layering In Active External Managers
“We started with a portfolio of ETFs and slowly layered managers in. We weren't going to take the traditional amount of equity risk in those early days because we didn't have the traditional amount of diversification.”
Disclosure
VCU's Endowment Explicitly Avoids Private Credit, China, Latin America, and Africa
“Our portfolio probably looks a little bit different in that there's a lot of things that we've decided to not spend our time on. Because we believed we'd be better spent spending time elsewhere. Things like private credit, China, Latin America, Africa.”
Disclosure
VCU's Endowment Caps Its Private Market Allocation at 25 Percent
“We only have about 20 to 25% of our portfolio in private assets.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Composite Capital Fully Pivoted From China to Vietnam Within Two Years
“We backed him day one when he launched his own fund, Composite Capital.
Within two years, he had stopped investing in China and pivoted his portfolio hard towards Vietnam.”
Opinion
Gold Benefits Most From Sustained Inflation and Geopolitical Restructuring
“We're in a period now of a total and complete restructuring of the geopolitical equilibrium. We're in a period of sustained higher inflation. There's one asset that fills that gap that's created when things change like that. All that change leads to fear, unce…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mega-Endowments Simply Cannot Deploy Massive Checks Into the Vietnamese Market
“If you are a twenty billion dollar endowment and need to write a five hundred million dollar check into that market, it's not possible.”
Disclosure
Avoiding Private Equity Buyouts Protected VCU From Overvalued Enterprise Software Exposure
“We do very little in buyout. That's been a windfall for us right now because we don't have to worry about private equity software.”
Disclosure
VCU Diffuses Risk by Requiring Its Entire Team to Meet Prospective Managers
“We do team-based underwriting. There is a lead on every investment. Everybody on the team plays some kind of role in the process, and everybody on the team has to meet the manager. It diffuses ownership of that idea so that folks might be incrementally willing…”
What-if
Simple Cash Would Have Beaten VCU's Complex 2020 Interest Rate Overlay
“We had great insight in 20, 21, 22, that rates were going to go up. We put on an overlay and the way we expressed it was all wrong. It was too complicated. It would have been simpler to have no position at all and not have lost money on the hedge or just taken…”
Insight
Allocators Should Only Back Distressed Managers They Already Have Relationships With
“One thing we've learned is if we're going to step into a burning building, it's helpful to have lived in the neighborhood before. We've had great experiences stepping into burning buildings in our portfolio, less good experiences stepping into new burning buil…”