NVIDIA

“SSI, Ilya Sutskiver's new, Neolab is recently got a big cluster from NVIDIA”

“A few weeks ago, Poolside effectively didn't, they would deny that they sold, but they sold a license for their product to NVIDIA, which was an open weight enterprise US focused model, and they, you know, the company still exists, but they cashed out quite a l…”

“If I was to buy an H 100 for, let's say, 30,000 dollars, that's how much the, kind of, a single card would cost. If I wanted to rent an H 100 for one hour spot instance from GCP, it could cost me five dollars. If I rented it from, like, You know, Azure or AWS,…”

“So I believe earlier this month, NVIDIA did a huge deal with Blackstone, BlackRock, Apollo, and Goldman Sachs. And they said, listen, we want more people to buy more GPUs. We're going to underwrite for you up to 25% the value of a GPU. That if you lend money t…”

“This hugging face thing. Will go down as one of the most important transactions in AI, because you are creating now in the largest competitor and the largest, most well-capitalized company, a bulwark. Against all of this closed source oligopoly insanity.”

“And I believe right now, starting today, NVIDIA is the number one competitor for OpenAI and Anthropic, not just for tokens, but for enterprise compute.”

“He's going to catch up and blow past China and the Chinese models, I think by the end of 20, 27.”

“NVIDIA agreed to pay 12.9303 billion dollars for Hugging Face, which just happens to be the exact decimal code for the Hugging Face emoji, which of course is the Icon used by the company.”

“They became profitable in 20, 25, still had half the money that they raised. So Nvidia came in to offer five hundred million late 20, 25 at a seven billion valuation, but they turned it down.”

“I mean, the retention packages are apparently a billion dollars for a pretty small team.”

“So whether it was Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, All people who build ARM-based server chips, they were all on board, and I think the ultimate proof point was when we announced the product last March, we had Jensen, we had Ronnie Boker, we had Amin, we had…”

“Today, whether it's NVIDIA or some of the work that Qualcomm does, most of the brains that you see in the humanoids, those are all, all running on ARM today.”

“Jensen standing on stage with 96.2 billion dollar quarter and immediately went shopping nearing the thirteen billion dollar price tag with the 12.9 billion that they paid for hugging face, which was confirmed just after we did last week's recording.”

“The demand for their product is such that they're entirely supply constrained, so the probability of a near-end miss is plus or minus zero, right?”

“Intense demand for compute is going to continue for at least another 12 months, and it's coming from the person who probably knows best.”

“And also, they took the rare step of projecting 70% revenue growth for next fiscal year, ending Jan 20 28, way above the 44% street expected.”

“Open source is good for compute salespeople. If you're selling GPUs, you want everyone else's margin to be lower, so yours can be higher.”

“All, whatever LLM, whatever inference is, he's committed to winning a majority stake, 70%, 80% of every dollar here, and so 12.9 is, you know, no way I think it's worth it in isolation, but if it helps reinforce that, it's utterly defensible.”

“I think that, like, they, you know, they pushed a lot on the performance and the fact that they're significantly better than, you know, better performance than the GPU than NVIDIA. But what I see is that they've built a significantly better GPU. And that in it…”

“What I think is the most untapped opportunity right now frankly for Cerebrus, but frankly for the entire non-NVIDIA environment right? And the non-environ sorry community is that, you know, we're all running models that were designed for NVIDIA GPUs, right? An…”

“What used to be considered fast at, like, 1000 100 or 200 tokens per second is quickly becoming the new batch mode. Right. Quickly becoming the new, like overnight is true.”

“It can scan AI agent skills for security issues things like prompt injection, data exfiltration, supply chain risk, hidden instructions, basically any malicious patterns and MCP related risks Skill Spectre has your back.”

“Elon said that he and Jensen have co-designed a Reuben rack. And there, it's gonna launch in the fourth quarter of 27.”

“I do think you're going to see American open source led by Nvidia get really close to the frontier.”

“My rule of thumb for accelerators, every one percent share today is probably worth a hundred billion. So there's no need to go head on with NVIDIA.”

“Like, let's say it's fifty billion dollars. For an Nvidia data center, you need a fifteen billion dollar equity check. Okay. You can finance the other thirty five billion.”

“TPUs are the second most financeable. It probably takes, I don't know, double the equity check at least. And then the rates on the rest of it are higher.”

“And you know, we own 20% of NVIDIA. Think about that. I mean, you know, we own 10% of Google. And there's many others, you know. Apple. Are you kidding me? We were the first investor of Apple, in Apple. Cisco. We own a quarter of Cisco systems.”

“He bought Hugging Face for twelve billion, and he did like one of these aqua hire deals with Poolside for six billion total, about twenty billion in twenty billion in acquisitions, which is far less than one percent of the market cap of NVIDIA.”

“Which is really, I think the reason why the stock is up eight percent today is not just the great quarter, but the fact that they guided To 70% growth next year, whereas the street was only expecting around 45%.”

“You're going to look at these big companies in five years. They're all going to have their own cloud. They're all going to have their own models. They're all going to have their own silicon. They're all going to have their own data centers. Soup to nuts, they'…”

“I think that there's a real serious chance that if we let SpaceX Be worth two or three trillion, then NVIDIA probably is worth 10. And so I think that the answer's likely yes.”

“So the last thing I'm doing is looking at a silver brick, and I think NVIDIA's in that position.”

“NVIDIA is paying six billion dollars to license Poolside's model factory and investing a billion dollars more at a twelve billion dollar pre-money valuation, moving a 109 engineers over to NemoTron to help build it.”

“A lot of people I worked with in NVIDIA in 2015, 20 16 are still there today. That company has incredible retention, and these are the best engineers, frankly, on the Silicon side, at least, I've worked with them my whole career.”

“NVIDIA took it one step further. There was no free milk in the fridge. So if you wanted to drink coffee at NVIDIA, and you wanted some milk, you actually had to chip in a dollar every month to the milk club, and the milk club would stock Costco milk in the fri…”

“You'll use eight times more hardware, but you won't get eight times the speed. You might get like four to five X the speed. You're not going to get strong scaling. And this is because of communication overhead.”

“NVLink is mandatory, I would say, for low latency inference.”

“I think I'm not holding my breath for other companies broadly to figure out NVLink quickly. It's challenging technology to figure out. It's hard to scale. It's hard to productionize.”

“And so there are other chips that definitely rank higher than NVIDIA on flops per dollar. But they may not have as much interconnect”

“Blackwell has 288 gigabytes of HBM capacity around the logic die, and the logic die itself maybe only has like 500 megabytes of SRAM. So it's possibly multiple orders of magnitude, three orders of magnitude difference in density for DRAM versus SRAM.”

“That operation runs at, you know, 70, 80% of peak utilization, and it's limited not by software, but by power. The way NVIDIA quotes peak flops is a little optimistic. You never hit that because of power throttling”

“Their latest chip, the Grace Blackwell that chips as a rack of 72 units, and it is, it's an open race to figure out who can program the whole rack-scale computer as efficiently as possible, and my belief is that that shape of compute is the future of both effi…”

“NVIDIA sees the, if they just let the most deep pockets buy all the chips that Maybe hurts them in the long term if that customer ends up accruing a lot of more power. They understand that compute is power today, and so they're quite strategic about how they a…”

“NVIDIA's pumping out five million Blackwell chips this year.”

“If you look at, you know, Hopper to Blackwell to Rubin, and you compare like for like, what is the performance per watt of a beefload-sixteen multiply? It hasn't improved all that much.”

“You want to pick something and say, I think they've underpriced the impact of how short we're going to be on HBM. We're going to push really hard in this other direction instead, which, you know, as an aside, I do think is probably the thing to attack most.”

“NVIDIA is really smart about this. They don't compete with their customers. NVIDIA takes a long view on everything. Why don't they even start with the NeoCloud? Why don't they just sell computer out the back door? Well, NVIDIA is really good. Jensen is really …”

“Like, he wants to create a diverse community of NeoClouds and inference providers who are all jockeying to create demand for NVIDIA, such that if any one of them Decides to, I don't know, vertically integrate or go with AMD or any other option. He's got three …”

“Over.”

“Because what's interesting to me is I haven't seen the same Doomerism from any open source model company, including Nvidia. And the thing with the open source models is you can actually see it thinking, so you can see its misalignment in real time.”

“Anthropic has really been behind a lot of the political activity to restrict Nvidia's sales internationally.”

“If you actually look at their business holistically, what that is, is a price cut, right? Like they, now the price cut didn't show up in margins. It didn't show up in what they're offering, but a lot of what NVIDIA is doing is how can we maintain our margins?”

“Their ultimate competitors are the hyperscalers, particularly Google and Amazon. So Google and Amazon aren't just building their own chips, but they're also looking to sell those chips externally.”

“CUDA's moat is dramatically diminished because the models don't care what they run on, and that's what actually matters, what's built on top of the models, but it still matters. It, it's still something of a mode.”

“If we get to a world where we actually run out of power, that's probably good for NVIDIA, because in a world where we're totally constrained on power, we have to get the best efficiency, the best token efficiency, and I think NVIDIA is still the most token eff…”

“The longer we have enough power, the more time Amazon has to make Trinium better. The more time Google has to make TPUs competitive from an efficiency standpoint. And if we get in a world where, this is a world where those margins seem very hard to sustain.”

“We powered the first ever AI chip powered by a nuclear reactor. So we took an NVIDIA Blackwell super grateful to them for providing the system to us. And we connected it directly to our nuclear reactor.”

“None of this goes back to NVIDIA. This is why Jensen's brilliant. He basically set this up as SPVs that will basically borrow against the taker pay agreements of the off takers of the neocloud guys that are saying we're all going to need 3000 dollars a month f…”

“And then you have like duration mismatch between like the hard assets and the financing. So like the chip, depending if you look at meta or Amazon debate, whether it's a three year or five year depreciation, but it's, you know, called three, the debt, Amortize…”