NVIDIA

includes NVIDIA H100, NVIDIA H20, NVIDIA Hopper, NVIDIA Blackwell, NVIDIA GB200, NVIDIA GTC, NVIDIA GB300, NVIDIA B100, NVIDIA Grace Blackwell, NVIDIA Vera Rubin, NVIDIA H200, NVIDIA A100 and 6 more

142 statements across 26 episodes · 87 bullish · 23 bearish · 8 people on the record · first statement Jan 25, 2024 by Brad Gerstner · said 605 times in 40 episodes since 2024 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Brad Gerstner (361), Bill Gurley (110), Jensen Huang (60), Dylan Patel (42), Sunny Madra (14), Clark Tang (7), Satya Nadella (5), Michael Dell (3)

tap a year for its mentions
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01325202420252026episodes it came up in
0010132025202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 13 mentions in 1 episode
2025 265 mentions in 17 episodes 16 per episode
2024 327 mentions in 22 episodes 15 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about NVIDIA, oldest first

Jan 25, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Google invested $25B in VC in 2023
“We go from almost no venture capital investing, you know, out of these folks six or seven years ago to all of a sudden this twenty five billion dollars last year in VC investing”
Brad Gerstner Jan 25, 2024 ▶ 4:09 BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations? & More | E01 · Bg2 Pod
Jan 25, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Tech trades at 36% premium to 10-year average while software lags
“The blue line represents tech. This is the Q's. We're trading at about a 36% premium to the ten-year average. I just showed you software. Software is still trading at a discount because people are more skeptical of software, but when you look at the Q's, Nvidi…”
Brad Gerstner Jan 25, 2024 ▶ 27:08 BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations? & More | E01 · Bg2 Pod
Jan 25, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta PEG ratios trade in line historically
“The big three, what I call Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Meta, You know, they too are trading at a premium, about a 14% premium, but if you look at their peg ratio, this is growth adjusted on the bottom of that slide, right? They're basically trading in line with whe…”
Brad Gerstner Jan 25, 2024 ▶ 27:48 BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations? & More | E01 · Bg2 Pod
Feb 22, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: GCC sovereign AI compute orders will rival hyperscalers
“And I think what people still don't appreciate is they're probably dozens of sovereigns who are trying to get into the NVIDIA order book, and that they view it as one of their top three national priorities to build out AI capabilities. And I think the size you…”
Brad Gerstner Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 57:58 BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, AI Impact on Big Tech | E03 · Bg2 Pod
Feb 22, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Gurley: There is no chance of competing simultaneously with TSMC and Nvidia
“And then some of them, and I, once again, I don't know that there was an exact quote, but the idea that you're going to build a fab is And compete, you're gonna compete with TSMC and NVIDIA at the same time. Like, no chance. Like, no chance.”
Bill Gurley Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 1:01:44 BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, AI Impact on Big Tech | E03 · Bg2 Pod
Feb 22, 2024
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Tech stock gains in early 2024 are concentrated in Meta and Nvidia
“Meta, Nvidia up 30, 40% even with the pullback that we had today. But the truth is the Nasdaq hasn't really moved that much. I mean, I think we're up three or four percent through today. If you look at the median stock, I think it's up about one percent.”
Brad Gerstner Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 3:28 BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, AI Impact on Big Tech | E03 · Bg2 Pod
Feb 22, 2024 neutral
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: Amazon will deploy custom silicon but remain major Nvidia buyer
“I think the answer to that is yes, but I still think they'll be one of the largest buyers of NVIDIA GPUs in the world because it doesn't replace that for a lot of really important workloads.”
Brad Gerstner Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 56:02 BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, AI Impact on Big Tech | E03 · Bg2 Pod
Feb 22, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Google trades at the lowest P/E and growth rate among MANG peers
“This is the 23 through 25 expected growth rates. 14% for Microsoft, 12% for Amazon. 42% for NVIDIA and 11% for Google. So Google's already expected out of those four to be growing at the slowest rate. But then what's interesting, if you come down here, To the …”
Brad Gerstner Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 33:23 BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, AI Impact on Big Tech | E03 · Bg2 Pod
Feb 22, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Gerstner: Fears of an Impending Nvidia Chip Glut Are Inaccurate
“So everybody's just the wall of worry around NVIDIA is when does the glut come? We've pulled forward all this training demand. It's dark fiber like in the year 2000. I think those things are not accurate.”
Brad Gerstner Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 9:52 BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, AI Impact on Big Tech | E03 · Bg2 Pod
Feb 22, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Nvidia's $700 consensus price assumes market share drops to 26%
“The consensus forecast that has the stock at 700 dollars a share assumes, if you believe this TAM to be accurate, assumes that their share will go from 55% today to 26% in twenty-twenty-eight.”
Brad Gerstner Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 1:13:35 BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, AI Impact on Big Tech | E03 · Bg2 Pod
Mar 7, 2024 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Gerstner: Llama 3 and GPT-5 Will Launch Between May and July
“The first H 100 only trained models, I think, will be Llama three and chat GPT five. So we're hearing rumors that both of those models are going to come out in the May, July timeframe.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 7, 2024 ▶ 29:38 Ep4. Tesla FSD 12, Imitation AI Models, Open vs Closed AI Models, Delaware vs Elon, & Market Update · Bg2 Pod
Mar 7, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Gerstner: OpenAI Should Rename to ChatGPT and Focus on Google
“If I was Sam Altman running OpenAI, I think I might rename the company ChatGPT and just focused on the multi-trillion dollar opportunity to replace Google, right? Because I think winning at both, beating Google at consumer and beating Microsoft at enterprise y…”
Brad Gerstner Mar 7, 2024 ▶ 35:10 Ep4. Tesla FSD 12, Imitation AI Models, Open vs Closed AI Models, Delaware vs Elon, & Market Update · Bg2 Pod
Mar 7, 2024 neutral
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Gerstner: Next-Gen AI Frontier Models Will Arrive in Q2 2025
“All the rest of the frontier models are kind of in this holding pattern because they're waiting for the B 100 to get launched to this Q three, Q four out of Nvidia. Which probably means the next iteration of the frontier models will come out in Q two of next y…”
Brad Gerstner Mar 7, 2024 ▶ 30:30 Ep4. Tesla FSD 12, Imitation AI Models, Open vs Closed AI Models, Delaware vs Elon, & Market Update · Bg2 Pod
Mar 7, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Nvidia EPS forecast expanded from $5.70 to $25 in one year
“The EPS at the beginning of last year, the earnings per share was expected to be five dollars and 70 cents. And now it looks like it's going to be 25 dollars.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 7, 2024 ▶ 2:28 Ep4. Tesla FSD 12, Imitation AI Models, Open vs Closed AI Models, Delaware vs Elon, & Market Update · Bg2 Pod
Mar 7, 2024 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Nvidia 2023 data center revenue beat initial consensus by over 4x
“At the start of last year, the consensus estimate of the smartest people covering Nvidia day to day was that the data center revenue was going to be twenty two billion for the year. Right. Guess what it ended up being? Ninety six billion.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 7, 2024 ▶ 2:04 Ep4. Tesla FSD 12, Imitation AI Models, Open vs Closed AI Models, Delaware vs Elon, & Market Update · Bg2 Pod
Jun 22, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Nvidia and Magnificent Six drove 10% of S&P's 14% return
“So far this year, NVIDIA is responsible for five percent of the S&P 500 returns. The other MAG six are responsible for five percent, and then the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 are responsible for four percent of the 14% year to date returns.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 22, 2024 ▶ 6:16 Ep11. Coatue Conference Recap, Tesla & ISS Controversy | BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jun 22, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Nvidia's earnings multiple remained flat despite 10x stock surge
“In the case of Cisco, the earnings multiple more than tripled during that period of time. But in this case, because of the earnings growth of Nvidia, the earnings multiple has been flat despite the fact that the stock is up nearly 10 X.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 22, 2024 ▶ 7:11 Ep11. Coatue Conference Recap, Tesla & ISS Controversy | BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jul 11, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Big Tech Earnings Are Up 38% Over the Past 12 Months
“So if you look at it for Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Google, Meta, earnings are up 38% over the last 12 months.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 11, 2024 ▶ 12:16 Ep12. Tech Stocks vs the Rest; AI VC Bubble, Calcium CT Scan | BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jul 25, 2024 negative
Opinion
Gerstner: Hyperscalers stopped M&A to fund buybacks, dividends, and Nvidia chips
“We've been in this period in Silicon Valley for four years where companies just stopped, like, they may have sent their M&A teams to the beach for all I know. There just has not been a lot of activity, certainly among the hyperscalers relative to what had exis…”
Brad Gerstner Jul 25, 2024 ▶ 59:55 Ep13. Silicon Valley’s Political 180, META AI, COVID Postmortem | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Aug 9, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Nvidia Consensus Data Center Revenue Is $136B in 2024, $166B in 2025
“So this year they're expected to do about a hundred and thirty six billion of data center revenues. Next year, that goes to a hundred and sixty six billion.”
Brad Gerstner Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 33:27 Ep14. Public Market Volatility, AI Air Pocket, $GOOG Ruling | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 25, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: The entire Nvidia and AI infrastructure supply chain remains undersupplied
“We think the entire NVIDIA and AI infrastructure supply chain is going to continue to be under supplied.”
Brad Gerstner Sep 25, 2024 ▶ 1:03:54 Ep16. Nuclear Update, AI Fast & Furious, State of VC | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 25, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Nvidia's 2025 stock hinges on shipping 6M versus 4.5M GPUs
“You know, we're kind of at, You know, six million GPUs for next year. The bearish people are at like four and a half million. Like the numbers will ultimately tell if they do six million next year, the stock's going higher. If they do four and a half million, …”
Brad Gerstner Sep 25, 2024 ▶ 1:04:12 Ep16. Nuclear Update, AI Fast & Furious, State of VC | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Huang: NVIDIA's moat in inference will be greater than in training
“And I'm sure I said it would be greater.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 16:09 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024
Disclosure
Jensen Huang: I have 60 direct reports
“I have 60 direct reports.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 1:07:04 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Huang: NVIDIA could not design Hopper, Blackwell, or Rubin chips without AI agents
“Our cyber security system today can't run without Without our own agents. We have agents helping to design chips. Hopper wouldn't be possible. Blackwell wouldn't be possible. Ruben don't even think about it.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 59:34 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Disclosure
Huang: NVIDIA aims for 50,000 employees and 100M AI assistants
“I'm hoping that NVIDIA someday will be a 50,000 employee company with a hundred million, you know, AI assistants. And they're in every single group.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 1:01:08 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huang: AI inference compute is about to increase by a billion times
“It's about to go up by a billion times.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 58:25 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Huang: NVIDIA delivers 2x-3x performance and cost improvements every single year
“We're trying to build a brand new one every single year, and every single year we deliver two or three times more performance. As a result, every single year, we reduce the cost by two or three times. Every single year, we improve the energy efficiency by two …”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 23:01 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2029
Huang: $1T in legacy data center infrastructure must be modernized in 4-5 years
“And we just know that we have a trillion dollars with the data centers that we have to modernize. And so right now as we speak, if we were to have a trajectory over the next four or five years to modernize that old stuff, that's not unreasonable.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 33:23 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 positive
Disclosure
Huang: NVIDIA never tracks or discusses market share internally
“NVIDIA is a market maker, not share taker. If you look at our company slides, we don't show, not one day does this company talk about market share, not inside.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 27:29 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
Huang: The AI industry will with certainty require millions of GPUs
“If you just did that math and you compound it with, you add, you compound that with four X per year, On model size and computing size. And then on the other hand, demand continues to grow in usage. Do we think that we need millions of GPUs? No doubt. Yeah, tha…”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 53:15 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huang: Almost every software application will be highly machine-learned in the future
“Almost every single application, Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Photoshop, Premiere, you know, AutoCAD. You give me your favorite application. That was all hand, hand engineered. I promise you it will be highly machine learned in the future.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 32:13 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 positive
What-if
Huang: Scaling large AI training jobs would have failed without Megatron
“Without Megatron. That we developed with some seven years ago now. The scaling of these large training jobs wouldn't have happened.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 54:29 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Disclosure
Gerstner: Altimeter and NVIDIA invested in OpenAI's $6.5B round
“Open AI. Raised, as you know, six and a half billion dollars this week at like a hundred and fifty billion dollar valuation. We both participated.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 38:40 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 positive
Insight
Huang: The entire data center is now the fundamental unit of computing
“The data center is now the unit of computing. To me, when I think about a computer, I'm not thinking about that chip. I'm thinking about this thing. That's my mental model, and all the software, and all the orchestration, all the machinery that's inside.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 22:38 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Huang: NVIDIA Lowered Marginal Compute Costs by 100,000x Over 10 Years
“You know, a lot of this is happening because we drove the marginal cost of computing down by a 100,000 X over the course of 10 years.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 3:05 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Huang: Software updates make Hopper GPUs 2x to 4x better over time
“Now, we also put a lot of energy into continuously reinventing new algorithms so that when the time comes, the Hopper architecture is two, three, four times better than when they bought it, so that, that you, that infrastructure continues to be really effectiv…”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 17:41 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huang: The new market for AI factories will probably reach a few trillion dollars
“So there's a whole layer of computing fabric, a whole layer of what I call AI factories that the world has to make that doesn't exist today at all. So the question is how big is that? Unknowable at the moment, probably a few trillion dollars.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 36:22 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 neutral
Insight
Huang: Parallel processing favors transistor volume over individual transistor speed
“Serial processing requires every transistor to be excellent. Parallel processing requires Lots and lots of transistors to be more cost effective. I'd rather have 10 times more transistors, 20% slower. Than 10 times less transistors, 20% faster.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 13:42 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Insight
Huang: Models built on NVIDIA run on NVIDIA without modification
“If you built it on this architecture, Without any consideration, it will run on this architecture, ok? You could still go and optimize it for other architectures, but at the very minimum, since it's already been architect, you know, built on NVIDIA, it will ru…”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 16:45 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Huang: cuDNN revolutionized deep learning by powering frameworks like PyTorch
“So we revolutionized deep learning because of our domain specific library called QDNN. Without QDNN, nobody talks about QDNN because it's one layer underneath PyTorch and, you know, and TensorFlow and back in the old days, CAFE and Theano and now Triton, and t…”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 14:51 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Huang: xAI Brought 100,000-GPU Cluster from Delivery to Training in 19 Days
“NVIDIA, NVIDIA's infrastructure and computing infrastructure and all that technology, to training, 19 days.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 48:59 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: NVIDIA generates roughly $4M revenue and $2M FCF per employee
“Nvidia is in a league of its own, really you know, at about four million of revenue per employee, about two million of profits or free cash flow per employee.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 1:00:17 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Huang: NVIDIA's Nemotron is the world's best reward model
“Our model, Nemo Tron, is, is the best model in the world for reward systems. And so, it is the best critique.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 1:16:08 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 neutral
Disclosure
Huang: NVIDIA shares roadmaps years ahead with CSPs building ASICs
“When we work with all the GCPs Azure, we present our roadmap to them years in advance. They don't present their ASIC roadmap to us, and it doesn't ever offend us.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 29:02 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 negative
Insight
Jensen Huang: GPU makers have no clue how to build accelerated computing
“Somebody who's really, really good at building GPUs have no clue how to be an accelerated computing company.”
Jensen Huang Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 45:34 Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Madra: NVIDIA's CUDA moat does not exist for inference workloads
“There is no Tie into CUDA that's required to go faster. That's required to get the models running, right? Obviously none of the three companies run CUDA. And so that moat doesn't exist around inference.”
Sunny Madra Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 24:01 Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Gerstner: Arm is well positioned to challenge NVIDIA on edge AI compute
“The orthogonal competitor Peels off a lot of the AI on the edge, and I think ARM's incredibly well positioned to do that. Clearly, NVIDIA's got ARM embedded now in a lot of their you know, in a lot of their Grace Blackwell, etc. But that to me would be one are…”
Brad Gerstner Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 14:08 Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Huang believes NVIDIA can triple revenue with 25% headcount growth
“He thinks they can three X, you know, the top line of the business while only adding 25% more humans because they can have a 100,000 autonomous agents doing things like building the software, doing the security, and that he becomes really a prompt agent, not o…”
Brad Gerstner Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 2:31 Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gurley: NVIDIA customer concentration may increase as AI training costs escalate
“And there may be, if that trajectory remains true, you could have an evolution where customer concentration increases for NVIDIA over time rather than going the other way, depending on how, you know, if Sam's right that they're gonna spend a hundred, Billion o…”
Bill Gurley Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 16:34 Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bearish
Assertion Supported
Madra: The three fastest AI inference companies are not NVIDIA
“The three fastest companies in inference right now are not Nvidia.”
Sunny Madra Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 22:47 Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: 40% of NVIDIA's revenue already comes from inference
“40% of their revenues are already inference.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 20:17 Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Insight
Gurley: NVIDIA's competitive advantage is strongest at massive system scale
“NVIDIA's competitive advantage is strongest where the size of the system is largest, which is another way of saying what Renee said. It's flipping it on its head. It's not to say it's weak on the edge, but it's super powerful when you put a whole bunch of them…”
Bill Gurley Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 15:27 Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Madra: NVIDIA's internal AI productivity gains for chip design exceed 100%
“I really, you know, been thinking a lot about Jensen's point in the pod about, you know, how much AI they're using internally for design, design verification for all those pieces. Right. And I think, you know, it's not 30%. I actually think sort of that's an u…”
Sunny Madra Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 50:03 Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: NVIDIA's CUDA library has over 300 industry-specific acceleration algorithms
“The CUDA library now has over 300 industry specific acceleration algorithms, right? Where they deeply learn the industry, right? So whether this is synthetic biology or this is image generation, or this is autonomous driving, they learn the needs of that indus…”
Brad Gerstner Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 6:29 Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bullish
Assertion Open · timeframe Oct 2024
Gurley: NVIDIA has 65% operating margins while growing over 100%
“You have a company at a 3.3 trillion market cap that's still growing over a hundred percent a year, and the margins are insane. I mean, 65% operating margins. There's only like five companies in the S&P 500 at that level, and they certainly aren't growing at t…”
Bill Gurley Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 3:40 Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 13, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Madra: Fewer developers will touch CUDA long-term, weakening NVIDIA's software moat
“I think there's going to be fewer people touching that. And I do think that's a point where they're the moat is not as strong as a longer term, as you say, and think about like, you know, the way the analogy that I would go with is like, think about the number…”
Sunny Madra Oct 13, 2024 ▶ 9:08 Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 31, 2024 bearish
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: AMD guidance implies 3% GPU data center share vs Nvidia's 90%
“They gave some forward guidance tonight that suggests they're going to stay at about three percent of the GPU kind of data center market relative to NVIDIA at about 90%.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 31, 2024 ▶ 1:00:06 Ep19. State of Venture, AI Scaling, Elections | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Jamin Ball · Bg2 Pod
Nov 21, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: 2025 AI model gains will increasingly come from post-training and inference
“So I think at least As we look at 2025 for NVIDIA, for the supply chain, and for the model companies themselves, we think we're going to continue to see improvements in the models. It won't all come from pre-training. We think there's an increasing amount comi…”
Brad Gerstner Nov 21, 2024 ▶ 11:08 Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Nov 21, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gurley: Nvidia's competitive differentiation is greatest at largest cluster sizes
“One, the NVIDIA differentiation, as we've talked about, is greatest at the largest cluster size.”
Bill Gurley Nov 21, 2024 ▶ 8:34 Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Nov 21, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Nvidia stated half its revenue comes from inference
“We know Nvidia has said half of their revenue is inference”
Brad Gerstner Nov 21, 2024 ▶ 17:04 Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Nov 27, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Uber, Dell, Oracle, and Nvidia pledge Invest America contributions
“Companies have already raised their hands from Uber to Dell, Oracle to Nvidia, and said they would contribute to the accounts of the kids of their employees, parents,”
Brad Gerstner Nov 27, 2024 ▶ 39:34 BG2 Thanksgiving Roundtable: DOGE, EV Tax Credit, Tariffs, Conspiracy Theories, Invest America · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: NVIDIA ships chips from design to deployment faster than competitors
“They get chips out faster than other people from Thought design to deployed.”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 7:26 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Jensen projected $1T in new AI and CPU replacement workloads
“And for the first time, he said, not only are we going to have a trillion dollars of new AI workloads over the course of the next four years he said, but we're also going to have a trillion dollars of CPU replacement, of data center replacement workloads over …”
Brad Gerstner Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 17:31 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Patel: Samsung holds almost zero share in HBM memory, especially at NVIDIA
“In HBM, Samsung has almost no share, right? Especially at NVIDIA”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 1:03:16 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 positive
Opinion
Patel: NVIDIA's primary differentiation comes from deep supply chain integration
“I would say for differentiating, NVIDIA has primarily focused on supply chain things, which, you know, might sound like, oh, well like, yeah, they're just like ordering stuff. No, no, no, no. You have to work deeply with the supply chain to build the next gene…”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 11:07 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Apple rents Google's TPU silicon, but GCP AI rentals remain GPUs
“While they do have some customers for their internal silicon externally, such as Apple the vast majority of their external rental business for AI in terms of cloud business is still GPUs.”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 6:42 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Patel: NVIDIA is cutting Blackwell margins to compete with custom ASICs
“Like with Blackwell, not only is it way, way, way faster, anywhere from 10 to 15 times on really large models for inference, because they've optimized it for very large language models, they've also decided, hey, we're gonna cut our margin, too, somewhat, beca…”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 14:16 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Amazon Trainium 2 costs ~$5,000 per chip versus $30,000+ for NVIDIA
“You're not paying, you know, north of 30,000, you know, 40,000 dollars per chip for the server, you're paying, you know, significantly less, right? 5000 dollars per chip, right?”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 1:16:23 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Patel: Google TPU clusters scale up to 8,000 chips today
“Nvidia's talking about GB 200, NVL 72, TPUs go to 8000 today, right?”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 1:11:30 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: NVIDIA holds 98% of AI workloads outside Google, 70% overall
“So I would say if you ignored Google, it would be over 98%. But then when you bring Google into the mix, it's actually more like 70 because Google is really that large a percentage of AI workloads especially production workloads.”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 4:32 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: SK Hynix memory is NVIDIA's largest COGS item, surpassing TSMC
“When you look at the cost of goods sold of NVIDIA their highest cost of goods sold is not TSMC, which is a Thing that people don't realize. It's actually HBM memory primarily SK Hynix.”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 1:02:27 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Patel: Broadcom is building an NVSwitch competitor for AMD and others
“Broadcom is making a Competitors to that, that they will cede to the market, right? Multiple companies will be using that. Not just, you know, AMD will be using that competitor to NVSwitch, but they're not making it themselves because they don't have the skill…”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 1:19:47 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 positive
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2024
Patel: Google built rack-scale AI systems with Broadcom in 2018 before NVIDIA
“Google actually did this alongside Broadcom you know, and they did it before Nvidia, right? You know, today everyone's freaking out about, or not freaking out, but like everyone's like very excited about Nvidia's Blackwell system, right? It is a rack Of GPUs. …”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 9:24 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Patel: AWS Trainium2 offers highest HBM capacity and bandwidth per dollar
“Their whole thing at reInvent, if you really talk to them when they announced Trinium II and our whole post about it and our analysis of it is, like, supply chain-wise, this is, looks, you know, you squint your eyes, this looks like an Amazon Basics TPU, right…”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 1:06:02 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 neutral
Insight
Patel: NVIDIA's inference moat relies on hardware rather than software
“NVIDIA's moat in, in inference is actually A lot smaller on software but it's a lot bigger on, hey, they just have the best hardware.”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 13:53 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: NVIDIA's Jensen Huang only plans 12 to 18 months ahead
“Well, the funny thing is a lot of people at NVIDIA will say Jensen doesn't plan more than a year or year and a half out. Because they change things and they'll deploy them out that fast, right? No semi, every other semiconductor company takes years to deploy, …”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 12:58 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024
Assertion Supported
Patel: Nvidia Blackwell costs over twice as much to manufacture as Hopper
“The cost to make Blackwell is north of two X that of the cost to make Hopper, right?”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 1:24:07 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 positive
Opinion
Patel: Every semiconductor company except NVIDIA is terrible at software
“I would say every semiconductor company in the world sucks at software except for NVIDIA, right?”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 7:07 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Patel: AMD lacks software talent and refuses to fund internal GPU clusters
“AMD is really good, but they're missing software. AMD has no clue how to do software, I think. They've got very few developers on it. They won't spend the money to build a GPU cluster for themselves so that they can develop software.”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 1:07:36 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Standard high-end server memory yields higher gross margins than HBM
“The gross margins on HBM have not been fantastic. They've been good, but they haven't been fantastic. Actually, regular memory, high-end, like, server memory that is not HBM is actually higher gross margin than HBM.”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 1:05:08 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: NVIDIA trades around 30 P/E compared to Cisco's 2000 peak
“Cisco, you know, 2000 and we'll show it on the pod, but you know, they peaked at like a 120 PE. Right. And yeah, you know, if you look at the fall off that occurred in revenue and in EBITDA, you know, and then it had 70% compression in the priced earnings mult…”
Brad Gerstner Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 41:18 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
Patel: Hyperscalers will significantly boost capex in 2025, lifting chip suppliers
“The plans for hyperscalers are pretty firm on, they're gonna spend a crap load more next year, right? And therefore, the ecosystem of networking players, of ASIC vendors, of systems vendors is gonna do well, whether it be NVIDIA or Marvell or Broadcom or AMD o…”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 1:21:20 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Patel: A quarter of Nvidia shipments could provide Llama-7B to humanity
“If you take one quarter of NVIDIA shipments and you said all of them are going to inference Lama-Seven-B, you can give every single person on earth a hundred tokens per minute, right? Or sorry, a hundred tokens per second. You give every single person on earth…”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 59:42 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Dec 23, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Patel: Cisco was fueled by speculative debt whereas NVIDIA is cash-backed
“Cisco's revenue, a lot of it was funded through private-slash-credit investments into building out telecom infrastructure, right? When we look at NVIDIA's revenue sources, very little of it is private-slash-credit, right? And in some cases, yes, it's private-s…”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 42:35 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jan 11, 2025 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: Nvidia inference revenue is upwards of 50% of total revenue
“Jensen made, and maybe we'll insert the clip here on the pod, where he talks about his inference revenue is already 50% of his revenue, so already upwards of 50% of his revenue”
Brad Gerstner Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 30:50 Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jan 11, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Gerstner: Nvidia does not intend to compete in frontier AI models
“You know, Nvidia launching a few models. I don't think they intend to be in the, you know, frontier model game where they're competing heads up with these other folks.”
Brad Gerstner Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 1:15:39 Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jan 11, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Big Five Grew 2024 Earnings by 44% vs 2% for S&P 495
“And in 2024, the big five, so in this case, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon, and Google grew earnings at 44%... If you look at the other 495 companies in the S&P, their earnings only grew two percent.”
Brad Gerstner Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 11:09 Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jan 11, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: 2023 Wall Street consensus forecast for Nvidia missed by 80%
“In 20, 23, you had 26 analysts on Wall Street covering NVIDIA. And the consensus forecast of all 26 of them missed by 80%.”
Brad Gerstner Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 23:20 Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jan 11, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: High-bandwidth memory will face shortages for foreseeable future
“And we think that we have a memory shortage, which is a key part of the NVIDIA supercomputer ecosystem for as far as we can see.”
Brad Gerstner Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 38:06 Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jan 11, 2025 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Gerstner: Nvidia will not lose AI market share from 2024 to 2025
“So I actually think if you look at the consensus numbers, they probably would imply that NVIDIA's market share is going down 24 to 25. And I don't think that to be true.”
Brad Gerstner Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 36:09 Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jan 11, 2025 bullish
Insight
Gerstner: AI power stocks are derivative bets; buy Nvidia instead
“And so I would always ask my analysts when they would bring me a power company, I would say, why is that better than NVIDIA? Right? It's a derivative NVIDIA. It's the exact same bet. So why not just buy more NVIDIA?”
Brad Gerstner Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 42:18 Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jan 11, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Gerstner: Big Tech Valuations Are Not in a Bubble
“I look at that and I say, does, is that a bubble? Right? Does this feel like a bubble? I say, no. It's not as good a deal as you got at the start of 23. And it's not as good a deal as you got to start at 24, but if we achieve the growth expectations we expect …”
Brad Gerstner Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 10:25 Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jan 23, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gurley: Nvidia rivals cannot ramp chip production fast enough
“Even if an NVIDIA competitor showed up, I don't think they can create enough production in the amount of time you need.”
Bill Gurley Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 22:32 Stargate, Executive Orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jan 23, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Haas: The Base CPU for Stargate AI Data Centers Will Be ARM
“And every data center whether it's running general purpose compute, whether it's running inference or running training, needs a base CPU to run everything, end quote. And that's our role. And whether that is going to be what we are part of today, which is GB 2…”
Rene Haas Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 36:27 Stargate, Executive Orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jan 23, 2025 bullish
Insight
Gerstner: Stargate's 2025 Buildout Needs Only ~$3B in Equity
“Out of the thirteen billion dollars of capex required, you know, if you make an assumption about 25 75 or 30 70 equity to debt, that probably requires like a three billion dollar equity check.”
Brad Gerstner Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 9:59 Stargate, Executive Orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jan 23, 2025 negative
Opinion
Gerstner: Commerce Department AI diffusion rule will slow down American AI
“There's a very insidious piece regulation, again, under the guise of being tough on China that I think is really gonna slow down American AI, and this is a framework for artificial intelligent diffusion, and it was promulgated by the Department of Commerce, an…”
Brad Gerstner Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 52:33 Stargate, Executive Orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Feb 5, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Gurley: DeepSeek bypassed Nvidia's CUDA framework for low-level optimization
“One, it's validated now that they went around CUDA, and I just think that's interesting.”
Bill Gurley Feb 5, 2025 ▶ 6:45 DeepSeek, Open Source, Tariffs, DOGE, Market Impact | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Feb 5, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Semiconductor tariffs will slow US AI research and hurt tech leadership
“So that would be a tax on, on the NVIDIAs and AMDs and others, and it would be a tax on Meta and Amazon and all the folks that would have to pay that tax, which likely means that you get less chips purchased and less AI research, right? So if our number one go…”
Brad Gerstner Feb 5, 2025 ▶ 47:52 DeepSeek, Open Source, Tariffs, DOGE, Market Impact | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Mar 2, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Gurley: Excessive Washington regulation is the number one risk for Nvidia
“And if I owned Nvidia, my number one concern. Would be excessive regulation coming out of Washington. My number one concern.”
Bill Gurley Mar 2, 2025 ▶ 37:40 Grok 3, AI Memory & Voice, China, DOGE, Public Market Pull Back | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Mar 21, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Gerstner: AWS Trainium Chip Cannot Compete With Nvidia's Hopper or Blackwell
“I think Tranium is not even competitive with Hopper, let alone with where Blackwell is today.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 54:35 NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Mar 21, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: China No Longer Depends on Nvidia for AI Inference
“BYD is designing a better car, and CATL is designing a better battery, and their glow, their vertically integrated supply chain around semiconductors no longer is dependent upon NVIDIA for inference. Now they're running inference at DeepSeq on the Ascend nine …”
Brad Gerstner Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 8:38 NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Mar 21, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Gurley: Government action from DC is the number one risk to Nvidia stock
“I think the number one risk on the stock is government action from DC.”
Bill Gurley Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 58:18 NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Mar 21, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Gerstner: Altimeter Reduced Nvidia Position Size to De-Risk Fund
“It, it's a smaller position than it was the last couple years because all of our position sizes are smaller as I took down risk at the start of this year.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 57:04 NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Mar 21, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Nvidia has 3.6M Blackwell GPU orders from top 4 US CSPs
“The top four cloud providers in the United States and what the year over year order was, you know, hoppers, 1.3 million hopper GPUs to the top four CPUs or CSPs and comparing like time frame. He said, we've done, you know, 3.6 million Blackwell GPUs so far thi…”
Brad Gerstner Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 52:33 NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 negative
Opinion
Gerstner: The U.S. should not export cutting-edge AI chips to China
“I don't think we should be sending GB 200 or cutting edge chips to China. I think that there's a legitimate national interest in, you know, quote unquote, staying out in front on AI. I think there's a debate to be had about that. That's where I come down on th…”
Brad Gerstner Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 28:34 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Nvidia H20 chip sales generate $2B to $3B in US tax revenue
“Fifteen billion in sales of H-twenties, right? That probably results in, you know, eight, nine billion dollars of earnings, you know, back to NVIDIA. You tax that at a corporate rate, that's two or three billion dollars to the U.S. Treasury.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 44:51 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: The US banned Nvidia H20 chip exports to China
“What we did last week is the US did ban H-twenties going to China”
Brad Gerstner Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 25:31 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Nvidia designed H20 specifically to comply with prior export rules
“And in fact, you designed this product specifically to meet The expert control rule that was in place before this one”
Bill Gurley Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 27:05 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Banning Nvidia H20 exports increases US trade deficit by $15B
“I think NVIDIA sold, you know, 12 or fifteen billion dollars worth of H-twenties. So if you ban those, then your trade deficit with China goes up by fifteen billion dollars.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 43:53 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Apr 24, 2025 positive
Opinion
Gerstner: Nvidia and Jensen Huang are American national heroes
“I think NVIDIA and Jensen are national heroes for the work that they've done and the leadership they've given us in global AI. American success stories.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 29:33 Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
May 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner Predicts NVIDIA May Soon Sell Deprecated AI Chips to China
“I think that we could still see as part of the negotiation over the next 90 days, I would not be terribly surprised to see NVIDIA allowed to sell some form of deprecated chip into China”
Brad Gerstner May 22, 2025 ▶ 29:19 AI, Middle East, China, Tariffs, Recon Bill, Invest America | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
May 22, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Abu Dhabi Announced 5GW AI Campus with Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle
“In Abu Dhabi, they announced a five gigawatt USAI, you know, it's a UAE USAI campus. It's an incredible architectural campus. It's in collaboration with NVIDIA and OpenAI and Oracle. And think of it as almost like a global Stargate. So to put that perspective,…”
Brad Gerstner May 22, 2025 ▶ 4:24 AI, Middle East, China, Tariffs, Recon Bill, Invest America | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jun 20, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Jensen Huang plans to triple Nvidia's size using AI agents
“He said, Brad, I'm going to three X the company and our headcount may not grow or only grow a little bit. And I said, how? He said, because I'm going to have agents who are reporting to me. I'm not going to have employees who are.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 20, 2025 ▶ 50:01 Coatue’s Laffont Brothers. AI, Public & VC Mkts, Macro, US Debt, Crypto, IPO's, & more | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Jul 10, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Dell: Custom ASICs gain share at hyperscalers, but customer count remains small
“I think for the larger model companies and hyperscalers certainly custom ASICs are gaining a lot of share. And when you have control over the workload and you can you know, take the time to optimize your workload you know, that's certainly going to be a part o…”
Michael Dell Jul 10, 2025 ▶ 1:02:44 Michael Dell – Invest America Act Becomes Law, AI Talent Wars, Compute Demand, Market Update | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Jul 10, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Uber, Nvidia, Oracle, Salesforce Commit to Invest America Matches
“Dell Corporation, for example, has raised their hand and said, you know, we intend to give to the kids of our employees. So has Uber. So has Nvidia. So has Oracle. So has Salesforce. So has T-Mobile. So has iHeartMedia.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 10, 2025 ▶ 19:38 Michael Dell – Invest America Act Becomes Law, AI Talent Wars, Compute Demand, Market Update | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Huang: $5 trillion annual global AI infrastructure CapEx is economically plausible
“So if you told me that on an annual basis, the CapEx of the world was about five trillion dollars, I would say the math seems to make sense.”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 15:54 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huang: AI compute glut unlikely until general-purpose computing fully transitions
“Until, until we fully Convert all general purpose computing to accelerated computing in AI until we do that. I think the chances are extremely low.”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 22:27 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huang: Inference Compute Demand Will Surge One Billion Times
“It's about to go up by a billion times.”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 0:47 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Huang: Nvidia's financial guidance assumes zero revenue from China
“Even though I tell all of our investors. That our guidance includes no China. And I appreciate all of our investors to include no China in any of our guidance.”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 1:16:17 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Huang: Hyperscalers support NVIDIA's direct purchasing deals with AI labs
“But they would like to have the same direct relationship with us, direct working relationship, and direct purchasing relationship. Meta, just as what Zuck and Meta has with us it's exactly a direct. Our relationship with between us and Sundar and Google, direc…”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 8:05 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Huang: NVIDIA is partnering directly with OpenAI to self-build infrastructure
“This new partnership is about helping OpenAI, working, partnering with OpenAI to build their own self-build AI infrastructure for the first time. And so this is us working directly with OpenAI at the chip level, at the software level, at the systems level, at …”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 5:45 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025
Insight
Huang: Chipmakers must co-design six to eight chips annually to beat wafer costs
“Wafer costs are getting higher, which means that unless you do co-design at an extreme scale, you're just not going to be able to deliver the x-factor growth, number one, number, and so you know, unless you, unless you're working on six, seven, eight chips a y…”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 38:36 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Over 40% of NVIDIA's revenue comes from AI inference workloads
“Over 40% of your revenue today is inference.”
Brad Gerstner Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 0:40 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Huang: General-purpose computing is over, replaced by accelerated AI computing
“That general, general purpose computing is over, and the future is accelerated computing and AI computing.”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 10:51 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Huang: NVIDIA partnered with Intel despite historic rivalry
“And notice, we just did the ultimate deal. Right. Partnering with Intel. A company that spent most of its life trying to put us out of business. And I had no trouble partnering with them.”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 1:29:07 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Huang: 100% of NVIDIA engineers and chip designers use AI agents
“Every single software engineer, every single chip designer in our company already has AIs working with them. A hundred percent coverage.”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 14:28 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Huang: NVIDIA is comfortable with low Wall Street consensus estimates
“Look, we're comfortable with that. Beating the numbers on a regular basis.”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 9:22 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Huang: Hyperscalers have consistently underforecasted GPU demand for years
“Now what's, what's going on, of course, is that every one of their forecasts that they provide us, it turns out to have been wrong. Because they under forecasted, and so now we're always in a scramble mode, and so we've been in the scramble mode now for, you k…”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 24:35 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Gerstner: NVIDIA will likely be the first $10 trillion company
“I think NVIDIA will likely be the first 10 trillion dollar company”
Brad Gerstner Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 55:35 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Huang: Nvidia previously held 95% AI chip market share in China
“95% market share.”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 1:08:01 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Huang: NVIDIA does not force customers into bundled full-rack systems
“We don't require anybody to buy everything from us. We don't require that they buy the full rack. They could buy a chip. They could buy a component. They could buy our networking. They could buy our, we have customers buying only our CPU. You know, just buy ou…”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 56:26 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
Huang: NVIDIA is hiring across the board as AI boosts productivity
“My engineers, every one of them use AIs continuously, and we're hiring more engineers, we're hiring more people, we're hiring across the board. The reason for that is because we have more ideas. We can now go pursue more ideas. The reason for that is because o…”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 1:35:53 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huang: Nvidia will eventually get the opportunity to compete in China
“These things will get sorted out, and we will have the opportunity to go compete in that China market.”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 1:17:19 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025
Assertion Supported
Huang: A One-Gigawatt AI Data Center Requires 400,000 to 500,000 GPUs
“When your customers deploy a gigawatt, that's a, you know, 400,500 thousand GPUs. Getting 500,000 GPUs to work together is a miracle.”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 39:27 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025
Insight
Huang: Startups should capture entire nascent markets rather than entering mature ones
“You're supposed to create a startup before the market grows. You're not supposed to come up as a startup when the market's a trillion dollars large. You know, this fallacy, and all VCs know this fallacy that a large market, if you could just take a few percent…”
Jensen Huang Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 41:42 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Sep 26, 2025 bearish
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: Wall Street consensus projects NVIDIA growth dropping to 8% in 2027
“But of the 25 sell-side analysts on Wall Street who cover your stock, if I look at the consensus estimate, it basically has your growth flatlining starting in twenty-twenty-seven. Eight percent growth twenty-twenty-seven through twenty-thirty, ok?”
Brad Gerstner Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 8:55 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 14, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huang: Risk of an AI Compute Glut Is Extremely Low Until Transition Completes
“Until we fully Convert all general purpose computing to accelerated computing and AI until we do that. I think the chances are extremely low.”
Jensen Huang Oct 14, 2025 ▶ 20:42 AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Oct 14, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Nvidia Agreed to Buy CoreWeave's Unsold Compute Capacity
“One of the more peculiar of all the deals is, and this was disclosed in a CoreWeave filing, was NVIDIA has promised to buy any of CoreWeave's service availability that they can't sell to anyone else.”
Bill Gurley Oct 14, 2025 ▶ 16:55 AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Jun 11, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: NVIDIA is highly likely to dominate open-source AI
“I do think NVIDIA is highly likely to be the world's dominant provider of open source AI, and I do think Jensen will bring open source, you know, right now it's, whatever, six months behind the frontier. We might see it creep closer and closer and closer”
Gavin Baker Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 57:20 The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang · Bg2 Pod
Jun 11, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Huang: xAI Brought a 100k GPU Cluster Online in 19 Days
“Just to put in perspective, a 100,000 GPUs, that's You know, easily the fastest supercomputer on the planet as one cluster. A supercomputer, ah, that you would build would take normally three years to plan. And then they deliver the equipment, and it takes one…”
Jensen Huang Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 14:24 The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang · Bg2 Pod
Jun 11, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: NVIDIA can become a top cloud computing company faster than expected
“I think Nvidia can join the frontier and become one of the world's largest cloud computing companies. Much faster than people think.”
Gavin Baker Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 58:31 The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang · Bg2 Pod
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