The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Brad Gerstner (19)Bill Gurley (6)Sam Altman (3)Jensen Huang (3)Ali Ghodsi (2)Gavin Baker (1)Elon Musk (1)Dylan Patel (1)Andrew Fox (1)
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Next up (14)
25 days left 2026-10-08
Gerstner bets reliable AI agents will autonomously book hotels within two years
“Over, under, I'll set the line at two years until we have an agent that has memory and can take action.
And the canonical use case, of course, that I used was that I could tell my agent, book me the Mercer Hotel next Tuesday in New York at the lowest price.
An…”
25 days left 2026-10-08
Gurley bets trustworthy, transactional AI agents will take more than two years
“Could you provide it at scale in a trustworthy way where people are allocating their credit cards to it?
That might take a little longer.
Okay, so over under Bill on two years.
I mean, I, I'm gonna get you action either way.
But what's the test?
The demo?
I th…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
170 days left 2027-03-02
474 days left 2027-12-31
851 days left 2029-01-11
893 days left 2029-02-22
1092 days left 2029-09-09
Gerstner: US baseload power growth will surge over next 5 to 10 years
“When you model out the need for data center capacity over the course of the next five to 10 years, you realize for the first time in really two decades, the US's need to grow its baseload power generation is going to go up significantly, significantly faster t…”
1126 days left 2029-10-13
Huang: $1T in legacy data center infrastructure must be modernized in 4-5 years
“And we just know that we have a trillion dollars with the data centers that we have to modernize. And so right now as we speak, if we were to have a trajectory over the next four or five years to modernize that old stuff, that's not unreasonable.”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Gerstner: China is expected to pass US nuclear power generation by 2030
“China's on track, on the other hand, to bring on more capacity capacity in the next 10 years than we've brought on in the last 40 years. They're expected to pass us in terms of total power generation from nuclear by 2030, or thereabouts.”
1732 days left 2031-06-11
Gerstner: SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI will add $1T revenue in 4-5 years
“The forecast now that we're going to add another trillion of revenue in just three companies, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, over the next four to five years, ok? Like, not seven companies, three companies, and in half the time, right?”
2098 days left 2032-06-11
Fox: SpaceX Launch Cadence Will Reach Thousands of Flights
“So look, I think expectations for now, you know, we're going from, You know, call it a 160, 165 launches last year, up into the high hundreds of launches in the next several years. And, you know, getting into the thousands of launches probably in the next thre…”
10527 days left 2055-07-10
Gerstner: Invest America will generate net tax revenue in 20 to 30 years
“According to the studies that were done on this will actually be revenue contributing 20 to 30 years out because the taxes you have to pay when you exit the accounts on the capital gains will be more Than what the government is contributing on an annual basis …”
Closed calls (59) the full record →
Nadella: Hyperscalers will run heterogeneous hardware fleets across multiple chipmakers
“And it's not, and by the way, it's going to be heterogeneous. Obviously, Jensen's super competitive. Lisa is going to come. You know, Hawk's going to produce things from Broadcom. We will all do our own. So, there's going to be a combination. So, you want to r…”
Huang: The AI industry will with certainty require millions of GPUs
“If you just did that math and you compound it with, you add, you compound that with four X per year, On model size and computing size. And then on the other hand, demand continues to grow in usage. Do we think that we need millions of GPUs? No doubt. Yeah, tha…”
Gurley: AI compute spending will shift from training toward inference over time
“Maybe the dollars of compute are going to move more towards inference than training as we move forward.”
Gerstner: Chip plants will be built in Vietnam, Japan, India, and Middle East
“I think you are going to see plants that get built in places like Vietnam and Japan. I think you are going to see them get built in India. You're probably going to see some attempts in the Middle East.”
Gerstner: Donald Trump will reach a big deal with China
“The reason I'm confident and I've said on this pod, That I think he'll get a big deal done with China.”
Gerstner: Hyperscalers like Amazon and Meta will re-enter the stablecoin business
“You're going to see the hyperscalers. You're going to see Amazon and Meta and these guys back involved in the stable business.”
Huang: Elon Musk will likely build a gigawatt AI cluster first
“I would not be surprised if he gets to a gigawatt before anybody else does.”
Gerstner: Meta will stay committed to open source alongside proprietary models
“My hunch is that they're going to stay very committed to open source, but they may compliment it with a proprietary model. That would be my guess. As opposed to scrapping open source altogether.”
Haas: The Base CPU for Stargate AI Data Centers Will Be ARM
“And every data center whether it's running general purpose compute, whether it's running inference or running training, needs a base CPU to run everything, end quote. And that's our role. And whether that is going to be what we are part of today, which is GB 2…”
Gerstner predicts SearchGPT will not reach one billion users
“I would say that search GPT I don't think is going to be the product that gets up to a billion users, and it reminds me, it takes me all the way back to a conversation you and I had maybe in episode four Which is what is going to be the next, you know, GPT mom…”
Gerstner: Apple has a near-zero probability of outsourcing its AI to Gemini
“I put the probability of them, quote unquote, outsourcing AI to Gemini at next to zero.”
Gerstner: Apple will use small on-device models and delegate complex queries
“Think about what Apple's going to do maybe more like a small language model. Like, really understand all the language, really understand everything about me, really understand how I interact with all these applications, and then when I have a deep problem I ne…”
Gerstner: Amazon will deploy custom silicon but remain major Nvidia buyer
“I think the answer to that is yes, but I still think they'll be one of the largest buyers of NVIDIA GPUs in the world because it doesn't replace that for a lot of really important workloads.”
Gerstner Forecasts 250k GPUs in 2025 and 1-2M in 2026 for Stargate
“And I'm forecasting maybe 250,000 GPUs this year, maybe a million or two million, you know, next year”
Altman predicts AI will make a novel scientific discovery by 2026
“I hope for very small scientific discoveries in 20, 26, but if we can get those very small ones, we'll get bigger ones in future years. That's a really crazy thing to say is that like AI is going to make a novel scientific discovery in 20, 26, even a very smal…”
Gerstner: ICONIQ will lead a $5B round in Anthropic at $170B valuation
“I think that Iconic is going to lead a five billion dollar round into Anthropic at a hundred and seventy billion.”
Gerstner: 'Death of software' narrative will look silly within 24 months
“I would argue less than 24 months will appear to be silly. I think there's some really interesting investments to be made particularly in the public markets because a lot of these incumbents have incumbent advantages and, you know, they're going to accelerate …”
Gerstner: Reconciliation bill will likely increase the US federal deficit
“But I suspect when you look at this package, right, and again, I'm just saying based upon how the Congressional Budget Office will score it, and this is kind of arcane scoring, but it will probably increase the deficit, and at best it would reduce it by a hund…”
Gerstner: US tariffs will settle at 5-10% globally, 25-30% on China
“I think we're going to probably land somewhere in this kind of five to 10% terrace for the rest of the world. Right. If you add that up, that's going to be somewhere order of magnitude, two hundred billion dollars of tariffs, and you're not going to end up at …”
Gerstner: US tariffs will ultimately settle around $300B to $400B
“I think we're going to land the plane here closer to three or four hundred billion in tariffs, not six or 700, and certainly not a trillion in tariffs.”
Gerstner: Enacted US Tariffs on China Will Not Land at 54%
“There's no, no way that lands, I think at 54%. That's the headline tariffs.”
Madra: US open-source AI will hit the global top three by 2026
“I think if we look at Q four this year or Q one next year, I'd be willing to say, you know, that a top three worldwide model will be a U S based open source model.”
Gerstner: Congressional Democrats will file federal lawsuit against DOGE budget cuts
“I do expect that Schumer or a group of members as early as this week is going to file you know, a claim, a lawsuit in federal court where they say that there's a violation of the constitution under article one, section nine, clause seven, where Congress has th…”