Gavin Baker analyzes NVIDIA's strategic option to compete directly with cloud hyperscalers using neocloud partnerships and proprietary models.
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: xAI's Google deal yields higher profit per GW than competitors
“He shows that XAI's deal with Google for cloud computing generates more operating profit per gigawatt than Anthropic, than Meta, than Google, than OpenAI.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Cursor and Anthropic hold more coding data than public web
“But my understanding is that Cursor and Anthropic have more tokens of proprietary coding data than anyone else, and they each have more tokens of proprietary coding data than exist on the public internet.”
Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Musk's Infrastructure Became the Fourth-Largest AI Hyperscaler
“In 30 days, we went from not being an AI hyperscaler to being number four, and we passed a lot of companies, including Oracle.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Grok 4.3 was the most intelligent 500B parameter model in the world
“Grok 4.3 was on the Pareto frontier, and as of 10 or 12 days ago, and these things move fast, most intelligent, five hundred billion parameter model in the world. And they were on the frontier, and there are four companies on the frontier. XAI, SpaceX AI, Goog…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Frontier AI Will Capture Most Revenue While Open Source Drives Token Volume
“The majority of economic value may continue to accrue to the frontier, and man has it ever accrued to the frontier thus far, and for sure the first six months this year, but the majority of tokens consumed in the world may be open source.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: NVIDIA is highly likely to dominate open-source AI
“I do think NVIDIA is highly likely to be the world's dominant provider of open source AI, and I do think Jensen will bring open source, you know, right now it's, whatever, six months behind the frontier. We might see it creep closer and closer and closer”