AI Tokens

topic on 13 shows · 33 statements across 29 episodes

the Y Combinator Startup Podcast More or Less Cheeky Pint Lenny's Podcast the Startup Ideas Podcast WTF is with Nikhil Kamath Invest Like the Best Sourcery the a16z Podcast Big Technology All-In TBPN 20VC

33 statements about AI Tokens, every show

INVEST LIKE THE BEST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Movva: A Trillion Tokens Is Approaching Tens of Thousands of Dollars
“And in fact, I would argue that we're, for some size of model, we are approaching a trillion tokens being measured in, you know, tens of thousands of dollars.”
Neil Movva Aug 25, 2026 ▶ 1:15:40 Ex-NVIDIA Engineer: Why AI Is About to Get 1000x Cheaper
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: The overwhelming majority of AI tokens are profitable
“The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone. And I think the Anthropic S-one is kind of going to make that clear.”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 1:12:32 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: US AI spend will hit $1T as companies adopt tokens
“There is no world in which I don't see corporations and people in the economy spending five or 10% of the salaries of their employees on the equivalent in tokens. In other words, somebody makes 80,000 dollars a year on average, they're gonna, you will spend 80…”
Jason Calacanis Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 1:13:32 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
BIG TECHNOLOGY Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2032
Kedrosky: Token demand is unlikely to achieve 100M-fold growth in 6 years
“You have to see around a hundred million fold growth over the next six years in terms of tokens. Is it possible? Absolutely. It's possible. Is it likely? No, it's not likely, but it could happen.”
Paul Kedrosky Aug 12, 2026 ▶ 20:38 Why The AI Bubble Will Burst: The Most Logical Case — With Paul Kedrosky
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Lemkin: Software companies will spend 10% of revenue on AI tokens
“All the software spend is going to put 10% of their top line into tokens.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 32:00 Zuckerberg Back on X Challenging Codex & Claude Code | SK Hynix’s $26BN IPO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bavor: Top engineers spend over $100K annually on AI tokens
“I have heard and I have observed that top engineers who are really leaning in to cloud code codex and so on are spending more than a 100,000 dollars on a run rate basis on tokens per year.”
Clay Bavor Jul 4, 2026 ▶ 22:52 Open Models vs Frontier Models: Who Actually Wins? | The $100K Token Budget Every Engineer Will Need · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
TBPN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Meta staff consumed 73.3T AI tokens monthly, costing $2.65B yearly
“Meta employees consumed 73.3 trillion AI tokens in a single month, which roughly costs two hundred and twenty one million a month or around 2.65 billion a year.”
John Coogan Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 29:48 Jersey Mikes's IPO, AI Lab Nationalization, SpaceX AIPhone | Diet TBPN
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Spending 20% of Developer Salaries on AI Tokens Is Realistic
“But, yeah, so hopefully they get cheaper with time, energy gets cheaper, compute gets cheaper, and then these things get cheaper, but at the current state, absolutely. I think 20% is definitely within reason.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 27:18 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
SOURCERY Disclosure
Armstrong: Coinbase flattened its AI cost curve despite exponential token growth
“And what was really cool is we are now seeing our usage of AI tokens is still continuing to grow exponentially, but the cost curve has really started to flatten.”
Brian Armstrong Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 50:31 Brian Armstrong: Rebuilding Coinbase Around Intelligence · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Y COMBINATOR Disclosure
Garry Tan discloses spending $1M annually on AI tokens
“I'm spending a million dollars a year on tokens.”
Garry Tan Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 27:52 Zynga Founder: Consumer Is Not Investible Right Now - Thats Why You Should Build It · Y Combinator
Y COMBINATOR Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tan: Peter Steinberger spends up to $1.1M monthly on AI tokens
“Like Peter Steinberger apparently is spending a million or 1.1 million dollars a month. That is, like, sort of the frontier of what you can do with this stuff.”
Garry Tan Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 27:57 Zynga Founder: Consumer Is Not Investible Right Now - Thats Why You Should Build It · Y Combinator
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Enterprise CIOs will demand proven ROI for AI spend by 2027
“I think going into 20, 27, CIOs and others are gonna be like, okay, just show me the F and ROI. We're not gonna, not just gonna ration tokens based on who we like the most in the company and who makes the best PowerPoint pitch. Show me the ROI.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 38:16 DeepSeek Raises at $50B | The Rise of Open Source vs OpenAI & Anthropic | OpenAI Builds Own Chip · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
BIG TECHNOLOGY Assertion Partly supported
Enterprise Spend On AI Tokens Surged 15x Over 16 Months
“Since January, 20, 25 through May, 2026, so last month per business spend on AI tokens is up 15 X. And that's amongst firms that were already spending on AI.”
Ara Kharazian Jun 17, 2026 ▶ 17:50 AI Fact or Fiction: The Fable Ban, Tokenmaxxing, Saaspocolypse — With Ara Kharazian
BIG TECHNOLOGY Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivasa: Token spend will eventually be way north of compute spend
“And sooner or later, I expect the cost of money, what I'm going to spending on tokens is going to be way north of what I'm spending on compute someday.”
Partha Srinivasa Jun 16, 2026 ▶ 1:12:07 Is Unstructured Data The Key To Successful AI Deployments?
LENNY'S PODCAST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pincus: Today's AI token volume will be basically free in two years
“If we think that the amount of tokens that we're buying today, you know, that will basically be free in a year or two, that, that, that, that token, you know, supply is going to go up so much.”
Mark Pincus Jun 14, 2026 ▶ 1:07:02 The hidden pattern behind successful products | Mark Pincus (FarmVille, Words with Friends, & more)
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grinberg: Individual AI token spend will range from 0% to tens of thousands % of salary
“I actually think it can be as low as zero percent for some individuals, and it can be as high as like 1010 of thousands of percent for some individuals.”
Matan Grinberg Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 20:23 OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Open-Source | Token Maxing, AI Hangovers & The Coming ROI Reckoning · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Grinberg: Median developer AI token spend will match salary within three years
“I would say order of magnitude will probably be comparable to salary.”
Matan Grinberg Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 22:03 OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Open-Source | Token Maxing, AI Hangovers & The Coming ROI Reckoning · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
STARTUP IDEAS Assertion Supported
Mike: Peter burned $1.3M in AI tokens in one month on loops
“The one argument I'll fight back with is this is going to burn a lot of tokens, and if you don't believe me, all you have to do is look at Peter's tweet, where in one month he burnt 1.3 million dollars worth of tokens.”
Ross Mike Jun 9, 2026 ▶ 12:29 WTF Is an "AI Agent Loop"? Genius or Hype?
Y COMBINATOR Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Tan: $100K AI token workloads will drop to $200 in two years
“What you spend a 100,000 or a million dollars a year on now, it will be commonplace like in, in two years, right? It'll, it won't cost a 100,000 in a year. It'll cost 10,000. And the year after that, it'll be like a couple hundred bucks, right? And everyone wi…”
Garry Tan May 27, 2026 ▶ 30:12 Inside YC's AI Playbook · Y Combinator
BIG TECHNOLOGY Disclosure
Dolen: PwC shut off internal teams over excessive AI token spending
“We've had that. We've had to like turn teams off who've spent too much money on tokens. You know, maybe it wasn't for all the right things. We're like watching what people are doing and going, wait a second, I don't think we want you to use AI for that. You kn…”
Dallas Dolen May 15, 2026 ▶ 7:58 PwC’s Dallas Dolen: AI Hardware’s Advantage, TokenMaxxing, Automation’s Impact
STARTUP IDEAS Disclosure
To spent nearly $500,000 on AI tokens for his startup
“And I just realized, you know what, like, I spent almost half a million dollars in token for my startup right now.”
Meng To May 6, 2026 ▶ 24:59 My AI Design Workflow That Doesn't Ship Slop
MORE OR LESS Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Upcoming op-ed proposes a new tax regime for AI displacement
“We probably, I don't think it will, it won't be published by the time this airs, but we have a very well-known figure in the tech industry who's writing an op-ed for us, laying out an entirely new tax regime, aiming to address this very issue, right? Aiming to…”
Jessica Lessin Apr 24, 2026 ▶ 8:38 What Tim Cook’s “Executive Chairman” Move Really Means | Musk vs OpenAI, xAI and Cursor Rumors
BIG TECHNOLOGY Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: Enterprise AI ROI will far surpass consumer use as tokens stay expensive
“The tokens are not going to be cheap anytime soon. And so the ROI on those tokens will just be much higher in the enterprise because it'll be, you know, generating something that is sort of, you know, impacts the GDP in some way.”
Aaron Levie Apr 8, 2026 ▶ 6:28 OpenAI vs. Anthropic's Direct Faceoff + Future of Agents — With Aaron Levie
a16z Insight
Levie: Software teams should intentionally waste AI tokens to maximize experimentation
“Like, for me right now, I'm like, yeah, we should probably waste a lot of tokens, because that means that we're, like, trying new things.”
Aaron Levie Apr 8, 2026 ▶ 54:12 Box CEO on the AI Adoption Gap | The a16z Show
a16z Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sinofsky: AI token prices will face steep deflation like IBM mainframes
“People were on MIPS and then one day the reality was IBM was selling more MIPS for fewer dollars every year. And didn't even realize it. And they were still pricing their mainframes by MIPS until it got pointed out to them that they were on a decreasing curve …”
Steven Sinofsky Apr 8, 2026 ▶ 57:42 Box CEO on the AI Adoption Gap | The a16z Show
ALL-IN Insight
Huang: A $500k software engineer should consume $250k in AI tokens annually
“If that 500,000 dollar engineer did not consume at least 250,000 dollars worth of tokens, I am going to be deeply alarmed.”
Jensen Huang Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 24:52 Jensen Huang: Nvidia's Future, Physical AI, Rise of the Agent, Inference Explosion, AI PR Crisis
ALL-IN Insight
Michael Dell: Lowest cost AI token will be generated locally on-device
“The lowest cost token is going to be the one that's generated right where the data is on the device.”
Michael Dell Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 53:36 Two Legendary Founders: Travis Kalanick & Michael Dell Live from Austin, Texas
Taylor: AI token usage does not strongly correlate with delivered business value
“I would argue there's not a strong correlation between token usage or utilization and value. There may be, but there's not always”
Bret Taylor Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 1:03:52 Bret Taylor of Sierra on AI agents, outcome-based pricing, and the OpenAI board
WTF Prediction Not checkable as stated
Harari: AI-to-AI trade using compute tokens could render fiat currencies irrelevant
“We could reach a point when, for instance, currency will be AI tokens, or even time on servers, or data. That AIs will trade with other AIs for tokens or for data, not for dollars. And the human currencies, like dollars and euros and yens, they will become irr…”
Yuval Noah Harari Feb 11, 2026 ▶ 1:11:12 Yuval Noah Harari: Stories, Power & Why Truth Doesn't Matter | Nikhil Kamath | People by WTF · Nikhil Kamath
STARTUP IDEAS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rauch: High token demand leaves many AI model providers out of capacity
“Because of the insane demand for AI tokens, a lot of model providers are unreliable or out of capacity.”
Guillermo Rauch Oct 29, 2025 ▶ 6:27 Vercel's CEO Shares 5 AI Startup Ideas So Good You’ll Quit Your Job
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Demand Will Absorb Every Available AI Token Produced
“Everyone will consume every available token.”
Jason Lemkin Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 37:12 Thinking Machines Co-Founder Joins Meta for $3.5BN, Industry Venture's $665M Acquisition · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Y COMBINATOR Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: Customers will pay for workflow software rather than raw tokens
“So eventually we're going to get to a point where customers are no longer going to just be paying for the intelligence tokens. They're going to be paying for the workflow software that goes on top of the tokens themselves.”
Aaron Levie Sep 16, 2025 ▶ 23:48 Aaron Levie: Why Startups Win In The AI Era · Y Combinator
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Laffont: Microsoft reported processing 100 trillion AI tokens in Q1
“And Microsoft said that in their Q-one they processed a hundred trillion tokens 50 trillion alone in March.”
Philippe Laffont May 9, 2025 ▶ 29:05 Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World

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