The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 148 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 148 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Anthropic aims to add over 8 GW of power by 2027
“Anthropic, you know, one and a half gigs of capacity end of 20, 25. By 27, they won over 10 gigs, right? So they're going to build basically more than eight gigawatts in two years. That's the size of Google today.”
Chinese automakers will likely acquire vulnerable legacy brands like Nissan and Stellantis
“One is Nissan, and the other is Stellantis, the group that owns, you know, Fiat, and Maserati, and Jeep, and Chrysler brands. Those two are the most vulnerable, so what will happen is either they'll joint venture with the Chinese And eventually be taken over b…”
Jenkins: IRA Will Cut U.S. Emissions by One Gigaton in 2030
“So our top line finding from the repeat project analysis of the bill is that it will cut annual U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by an additional one, roughly one billion metric tons below the current policy baseline. So an additional billion tons of emis…”
Wang: Voya achieves direct fully delivered cost parity with diesel
“With U.S. Scrap, you're already at diesel parity when it comes to fuel costs. Which is a critical thing for us. We're not commanding a green premium or any other sort of premium. Direct cost parity with diesel for fully delivered cost, including all the proces…”
Hade: C&I battery storage will be fastest-growing storage sector by rate
“I think, you know, for reasons we'll talk about, there are some compelling reasons to believe that CNI over the next three to five years is going to be the fastest growing sector of the market.
[1717] Shayle Kann: Ooh, that's an ambitious, well, I guess from a…”
Hade: AI tooling will slash C&I battery transaction costs 90% in three years
“So my best guess is, you know, over the next three years, the transaction cost bucket will go from an average of about 200 dollars a kilowatt hour to maybe 20 dollars a kilowatt hour. I think there's going to be a 90% reduction in the cost in sort of transacti…”
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Gas turbine orders will peak this year
“We think gas turbine orders are going to pick this year.”
Yedvab: Stardust lab tests show its particle is highly chemically inert
“Lab tests that we've done show that our particle is, I'd say, at a very high level of inertness, but definitely better than any other alternative that it was provided so far.”
Yedvab: Stardust developed tagging technology to track particle batches globally
“We have developed a unique tagging technology which enables us to track in real time each batch of particles as they move across the globe.”
Lubershane: Retail electricity prices will outpace inflation, driving broader inflation
“I have a very high degree of confidence that moving forward, because as you said, all this stuff is, is leading indicators prices are going to rise faster than inflation overall, and because electricity is sort of a Foundational good for the economy. They'll a…”
Chinese automakers will inevitably enter the US market via JVs or acquisitions
“Potentially, but I think realistically it's like gravity or water. The Chinese are going to find a way in and it may be by acquiring Stellantis or a Nissan or a plant inside or rebadging. It's a leap motor, but it's badged a Dodge and people start to show.”
Fulgham: India's coal generation will peak 3 to 4 times lower than China's
“And that means we think that India is going to top out or peak its coal generation, both in absolute terms and per capita at a level that's three to maybe even four times lower than where China's peak was.”
Pacific Fusion on track to achieve net facility gain by 2030
“And a number of companies are saying they'll do that in the next couple years. We're on track to do that by 2030.”
Linville: Global Fertilizer Prices to Stay Above Average Through Spring 2027
“And ultimately speaking, we could see some dips here and there, but I think the entire structure of this marketplace stays higher priced than average, probably through at least spring of 27.”
Nolan: General Matter will displace adversarial nuclear imports by 2030
“Building enough capacity there to satisfy HALU through the next decade, and then enough LEU capacity to displace adversarial imports into the US. And so that's the scale of it. That's where we're doing it. Timeline is, you know, Before end of decade.”
McAvoy: ERCOT battery storage prices will rebound within two years
“And so we see cyclically in another couple of years, the prices will start to come back in ERCOT and people will start to make money again.”
Araque: Super-hot geothermal will achieve $50 to $100 per MWh globally
“The higher outputs will be a big part of bringing those LCOEs down, and we see a hundred dollars per megawatt hour at the meter, no matter where you are in the world. Now, that includes the shallow and the deep systems. If you look specifically at the shallow …”
Araque: Quaise will achieve 25-30 MW EGS flow test by end of 2026
“For us in particular, the project in Oregon gets that flow test by the end of this year. By the end of twenty-twenty-six, Quaze has a commercial-grade Injector producer per EGS system producing 25 to 30 megawatt equivalent electric output from a flow test.”
Araque: Quaise will run first supercritical geothermal flow test by 2028
“From there in twenty-twenty-eight, so two years later, we'll do another version of that, that is not at three miles, but a little bit deeper and above the 400 degrees Celsius or so. We're basically walking up the temperatures of that site to unlock those outpu…”
Kann rejects Musk's claim that orbital data centers will be cheapest soon
“Because I think that orbital data, I mean, Elon says he thinks that they will be the cheapest way to get new compute in, like, three to five years. I do not think that is possible. Not in that time period.”
Kann predicts US electricity prices will rise over the next three years
“But I could tell you, I think over the next three years, you know, electricity prices are probably going up, not down.”
Roberts predicts recycled minerals will become cheaper than mined within 20 years
“I would just say that my, I guess my prediction would be that in 10 years, maybe or in 20, that just a unit of critical minerals drawn from recycling will be cheaper than a unit of
Mind.
I think.
I think.
Eventually.
Like, I think it will end up being our prim…”
Baglino: Data center rack voltages will reach 800V+ with SST architecture
“Now the backplane voltage of the racks will be 800 volts or even higher. And then you can use a SST based solution to go from medium voltage, 34 KV all the way to 800 volts with no gray space rooms with UPSs and power distribution panels and anything like that…”
Baglino: Solid-state transformers can match traditional transformer costs while adding grid functions
“An SST can have a cost similar to a traditional oil-filled transformer but at the same time provide functions that would be That would be provided by popcorn components around the transformer. Functions like overcurrent protection, fault isolation, what an aut…”
Siegel: New large-scale gas power plants will not arrive before 2030
“Large scale gas is a 20, 30 plus new resource.”
First advanced nuclear reactor will supply US grid power by 2032
“I'm pretty bad at making predictions, but I would be surprised if by 20 32 we haven't seen Real new advanced reactor electrons on the grid. There may not be many, and it'll probably be just one reactor but it'll shortly thereafter be followed by, you know, a s…”
McGinnis: US will deploy tens of gigawatts of plug-in DERs by 2036
“Again, if you look to Germany, like, doing a gigawatt in a handful of years in what is a much smaller, you know, country than ours, it wouldn't shock me to see tens of gigawatts deployed in the next five to 10 years in the US where that's actually making a mea…”
Burton: Substantially fewer renewables will come online in 2027 and 2028
“And so it really will be in the out years, 27 and 28, where we're going to see substantially less renewables coming online. So, so there's definitely going to be a slowdown.”
80% of AI inference compute will move to the edge by 2035
“So I would say that we could be getting 80% of our compute done locally and leaving 20% of the heavy lifting or the more esoteric, the more corner case compute for the data center cloud. That is, of course, excluding the training. The training will Continue to…”
Garabedian: Electric Hydrogen will beat fossil hydrogen costs by early 2030s
“Now, if you take our technology roadmap a little further out, and you think about scale and also improvements we have in our, coming in our technology, along with what we expect to see in terms of continued cost reduction in wind and solar, we think we can get…”
Sridhar: Inference will account for 90% of AI power load within four years
“Three to four years from now, I predict that 90% of the load will be inference and 10% will be training, even though the 10% in training then will be significantly larger than the 90% training today.”
Sridhar: Carbon capture will scale before green hydrogen for power generation
“Carbon capture at scale, hands down, for electricity generation.”
Chinese sodium-ion prices will undercut LFP by 2030, Mossberg predicts
“From the quotes and what we're hearing from the suppliers, not just cells, but also materials, we see a really low-risk pathway to the crossover point on price with LFP coming somewhere between twenty-twenty-eight and twenty-thirty out of China.”
Lubershain: New nuclear power will not scale in US until 2035+
“I don't think we're gonna see, we might see a little bit, you know, in the 2030, early 20 thirties time frame, but I think for the most part we're talking 2035 and beyond when we, when we'd actually have new nuclear power at scale coming online.”
Dumoulin-Smith: Solar leasing volume will rise in 2026 despite market contraction
“20, 26 is going to be, again, I would call it extraordinarily dynamic in a market which you could argue the market itself is going to decline in absolute terms. And yet for the incumbent leasing companies, arguably their volumes on a discrete basis are going t…”
Dumoulin-Smith: Loan-dependent residential solar installers will be phased out
“The individual installers who had been principally selling loans and had sidestepped this whole conversation to a large extent. That's really going to continue to be phased out, and in many ways, what I would argue to you is, like, when you look at, you know, …”
Kelty: Tri-chemistry EV battery market will persist over the next five years
“So we see a future over the next five years where you're going to have these three chemistries.”
Smit: Cook Islands seabed mining is 2 to 4 years from production
“We probably two to four years away from first production is, is where we are in the cooks.”
Smit: Ocean Minerals project will yield ~$500M annual free cash flow
“The mining system CAPEX is around five hundred million dollars you know, the processing plant probably around two billion dollars but what,
For that investment, do you get in return for your project? So, you know, our project is in anywhere between three and f…”
Light water reactors deploy in early 2030s; non-light water in late 2030s
“The early thirties is the light water reactors, and the late thirties is when we'll see commercially more of the non-light water reactors coming to fore.”
Schroepfer: Economically viable fusion will produce history's largest companies
“And so I think this is a very binary thing, that if we can actually hit unit economics that are competitive in fusion, It'll create the largest companies we've ever seen.”
Schroepfer: Nature-based carbon removal will hit sub-$100/ton surprisingly fast
“I think we will be shocked at how fast, low cost, particularly nature-based carbon removal systems, and when I say nature-based, I don't mean planting trees. I mean, enhanced rock weathering. I mean, ocean alkalinity enhancement. I mean, biochar. These are sys…”
Waters: SMRs will not be a viable power source until the mid-2030s
“The challenge there is that between permitting and technology development that needs to happen, you're probably talking about, you know, mid 20 thirties before you see that become a real play.”
LFP battery pricing could drop to $25 per kWh within years
“There's a decent likelihood we'll continue to see pricing go down. You know, I've heard some claims that you could see it go down as far as, you know, from 50 dollars down to even 25 dollars over the course of the next couple of years. I think it's realistic t…”
Kann: US data center capacity will more than double by 2030
“I was on the side of, we will see total capacity of data centers as measured in megawatts, or gigawatts, I guess, really double by twenty-thirty, and I was on the side that we will see it more than double.”
Jaffe: Northvolt's stranded factory will eventually produce batteries under new ownership
“But that factory, I believe strongly, is going to be making batteries. Somebody else is going to own it, and they are going to be making batteries.”
Ellis: European carbon regulations will double the price of cement
“They realize this is going to, these regulations are going to double the price of cement in Europe, whether you're going to be paying for post-combustion carbon capture, or you're simply going to be paying the carbon price.”
Johnson: Natural hydrogen and biogenic CO2 can reach aviation fuel parity
“You could even take, you know, natural hydrogen produced at optimized prices, combine that with biogenic CO two, and you could make kerosene for sustainable aviation fuel pretty darn close to cost parity to the kerosene that just comes out of oil refinery.”