Prediction Open AI assessment confidence: 85% certainty 4/5 debate potential 3/5

Smit: Ocean Minerals project will yield ~$500M annual free cash flow

Hans Smit · What to make of Trump's deep-sea minerals push · May 22, 2025 · at 31:59

Hans Smit, CEO of Ocean Minerals, outlines the project CapEx and expected annual cash flow from seabed nodule harvesting.

0:00 / 0:22exact quote · 22.0s

720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark

“The mining system CAPEX is around five hundred million dollars you know, the processing plant probably around two billion dollars but what, For that investment, do you get in return for your project? So, you know, our project is in anywhere between three and four billion dollar project that's going to yield in the region of five hundred million dollars of free cash flow per year.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

Ocean Minerals' project will require $3B to $4B in total CapEx (approx. $500M for the mining system and $2B for the processing plant) and yield roughly $500M in annual free cash flow.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

Hans Smit's May 2025 statement outlined projected total capital expenditure ($3B-$4B, including ~$500M for mining systems and ~$2B for processing) and expected annual free cash flow (~$500M) for Ocean Minerals' Cook Islands deep-sea nodule project. As of September 2, 2026, Ocean Minerals LLC (via Moana Minerals Ltd and partner Odyssey Marine Exploration) has published an Initial Assessment technical report summary under S-K 1300, but has not completed a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) or reached commercial operations. SEC filings in 2026 indicate a DFS and commercial permitting remain 18 to 26+ months away. Because the default horizon extends to May 2028 and definitive audited financial models or feasibility studies confirming or refuting these operational numbers do not yet exist, the claim cannot be definitively evaluated.

Moana Minerals filed an SEC S-K 1300 Initial Assessment Technical Report Summary in August 2025, but preliminary feasibility studies (PFS) and a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) remain in progress as of mid-2026.
Odyssey Marine Exploration SEC filings and investor presentations in 2026 indicate DFS completion and commercial permitting are still 18-26+ months away.
No audited project financial model, completed DFS, or regulatory report confirming the $3B-$4B CapEx breakdown or $500M annual free cash flow has been published as of September 2026.

Checked against

[1] sec.gov [2] sec.gov [3] sec.gov [4] stocktitan.net [5] mining-outlook.com [6] facebook.com [7] nasdaq.com [8] sec.gov

"Ocean Minerals" definitive feasibility study OR NI 43-101 OR financial reports Cook Islands "Ocean Minerals LLC" Cook Islands feasibility study CapEx OR capital expenditure "Hans Smit" "Ocean Minerals" Cook Islands mining system processing plant "Ocean Minerals" "Hans Smit" CapEx OR "processing plant" OR "free cash flow"

assessed as of 2026-09-02

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

⏳ next review: 2028-05-22; checked again automatically on the next resolution wave

Mentioned

Hans Smit Ocean Minerals

⚑ Spot an error? Report it

More from Hans Smit

Assertion Supported

Smit: Trump deep-sea mining order covers international and foreign waters

“And I think the other important thing about the executive order is that it has stipulated that it's not just US territorial waters. This is international waters as well as other exclusive zones.”

Hans Smit May 22, 2025 ▶ 5:19 What to make of Trump's deep-sea minerals push

Disclosure

Smit: Ocean Minerals avoids U.S. waters due to weak investor legal protections

“We, as a company, for example, are not inclined to explore in, ah, US territorial waters, ah, because our investors are not given the kind of Assurances and rights that we would get in other areas that would allow us to get a return on an investment if we were…”

Hans Smit May 22, 2025 ▶ 11:36 What to make of Trump's deep-sea minerals push

Prediction Open · timeframe May 2029

Smit: Cook Islands seabed mining is 2 to 4 years from production

“We probably two to four years away from first production is, is where we are in the cooks.”

Hans Smit May 22, 2025 ▶ 22:49 What to make of Trump's deep-sea minerals push

Assertion Supported

Smit: Land-based mines require 4x to 8x the tonnage of seabed nodules

“The other thing to consider is that we are bringing up one ton of material, and in that one ton of material, we are producing the same amount of metal As you would need to have anywhere between three and five land-based mines. So for them to get the same amoun…”

Hans Smit May 22, 2025 ▶ 30:50 What to make of Trump's deep-sea minerals push

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Smit: Manganese ensures Ocean Minerals' profitability despite cobalt and nickel price crashes

“With the recent crash of the cobalt price and nickel For all sorts of reasons, and that's the topic for a whole different discussion, but particularly those two metals with the depression on their prices, our project remains profitable, and the reason it's pro…”

Hans Smit May 22, 2025 ▶ 34:08 What to make of Trump's deep-sea minerals push

Assertion Supported

Smit: Seabed extraction technology has been proven since the 1970s

“The technology is known and proven and it has been proven. And incidentally, the first time it was proven was back in the 19 seventies. So the tech for this has been has been around for multiple decades.”

Hans Smit May 22, 2025 ▶ 23:21 What to make of Trump's deep-sea minerals push

Smit: Ocean Minerals project will yield ~$500M annual free cash flow

More from Hans Smit

Turn any episode into a week of clips.