Polymarket

“The ratings here from Polymarket, which company has the best AI model, by the end of twenty-twenty-six, OpenAI's chances just spiked from low single digits now to over 20%.”

“It has to be, right? Like it, I mean, if you look at like Kelsey and Polymarket, what's the difference there between DraftKings and Betway? And they seem very similar to me.”

“Where I see similarly come in is we are a company that is not just interested in what's going to happen, but more on how it's going to happen and why.”

“ICE as in the owners of NASDAQ, the, I think, Intercontinental Exchange has a big ownership stake in Polymarket. Why that's relevant is that's a company that runs ICE that runs stock trading and, you know, real financial markets taking a significant, I think, …”

“I don't think predicting who's the next Who's going to win the general election in the UK or who's going to be the next president in the US is a huge, enormous, ginormous business. I love it. I find it fun. It's actually the most interesting part of Polymarket…”

“I consult for Polymarket, I should say.”

“We haven't integrated prediction markets yet, and I'm not sure exactly where it fits in on our roadmap. I think it's very interesting there. I think our first version of the product would be built on something like a poly market in Calci.”

“Zuckerberg directed Meta to build a prediction markets app, which is a wild shift. The experimental app internally called Arena would be independent of Facebook and Instagram. It could compete for attention with Polymarket and Kalshi, the biggest prediction ma…”

“Well, we've talked about this like six times, and it has to be real money. It's not a thing if it's not real money.”

“Women are only like Less than a quarter of Kalshi and Polymarket right now really hasn't like struck with most of the women I know.”

“But Polymarket has been directing influencers to make fake videos about fake trades and reporting fake earnings for their influencer program.”

“If you look at the poly market Calci odds on a Tesla SpaceX merger, again, you know, not, not that those markets are so big that they're that indicative, but I think the probability that they have on there is something like 70% in the next two years or somethi…”

“Polymarket launched a bar, I think, to do, like, it's literally a Polymarket bar.”

“Polymarket says, 99% chance May inflation comes in at 4.2% or higher.”

“After Altman's latest testimony, the odds that Elon wins this thing have tanked, according to Polymarket and the prediction market.”

“Polymarket gives Elon a 41% chance of winning the case.”

“It's effectively at 42 or 43% that Elon wins.”

“I've got a side quest where I'm just investing. I have agents investing and betting on Kalshi and Polly and, you know, these other places. And it's silly how dumb the agents are, even their best agents, to be honest.”

“Polymarket said the probability of SpaceX being worth two trillion dollars on the IPO went up to 50, 60%, right? From a lower number, right?”

“We just crossed one million paying users and just partnered with poly market to bring predictions into our super app.”

“Polymarket. 27% chance that U.S. Forces Enter Iran by the end of March and 57% by the end of the year.”

“And today they're number one across users, revenue, volume, any metric that, that anyone would care about.”

“I don't think we'll look back at those kind of tools as having helped a generation of people.”

“So Codex built a competitor to Polymarket in three minutes and 47 seconds.”

“And I think the odds of him pulling this off are much greater than 17%.”

“The Maduro capture was on was on these prediction markets, and somebody who, it seems like they had under knowledge, they invested 30,000 dollars on Friday in Maduro's exit. After Maduro went into custody Saturday morning, the same investor made 436,000 dollar…”

“Polymarket. Polymarket's on a tear. Network effects. Replacing media. Replacing markets.”

“My pick for best performing asset will be the Robinhood Polymarket prize picks, gambling, wagering space because people will be able to have a little cash around to make some bets. You could buy Coinbase in there too, I guess.”

“The polymarket odds of it passing have jumped significantly.”

“Polymarket. I know a competitor, but also raised a very big round, partnered with New York Stock Exchange, ICE. Maybe they'll go public.”

“Mostly different act events to bet on. And I think events affect companies, but they're two different things. So I would say it'll be something to speculate on. But, and it'd be something that smart people may use as a hedging device against owning an equity. …”

“I think the prediction markets are gonna really be hamstrung by regulation and face really tough years next year, specifically Kalshi and Polymarket.”

“Without Polymarket, we wouldn't have I think like, Pushed our marketing and pushed our product as hard. And without us, they wouldn't have pushed their marketing and their product.”

“His team passed him a note and he goes, Oh, before we hang up here, I just would like to say web three crypto blockchain, Bitcoin, Ethereum. Thank you very much. And he just basically, he's like you know, just for all the prediction markets out there, you know…”

“He was the seed investor in a little company known as Polymarket”

“So based on my limited knowledge, I'm going Kalshi because I feel like it is a safer long-term bet than someone that is writing the current political vibes, which are all in favor of everything here. It just could, it was a lot different a couple of years ago,…”

“You can see, by the way that DraftKings and FanDuel stock have reacted to this, those companies are toast.”

“The poly market model is the best model because it creates a market, and so as information flows in, that market will dynamically adjust and everyone will get a more fair price.”

“Basically, 89% accurate one week out, but in the final four hours, it jumps to 95, which means that if you follow the sharps along this pattern, you're going to make money.”

“Polymarket actually has the news before the news does. And this is one of the most, like, powerful outputs of polymarket, is they're actually getting a read on what's going on in the world before the media recognizes it, before the public recognizes it.”

“This is the purest regulatory arbitrage play of all time. Okay. If you can look at the cumulative market cap of regulated sports betting and look at how it has dropped in response to the rise of Polymarket and Calci, who are not subject to the same rules and r…”

“This is two non-sports betting companies who are doing quote prediction markets where all we talk about is the 10% of the revenue that's political, and 90% of their business is sports betting, but we're not calling it that, and they're just killing it because …”

“ICE, a different ICE, Intercontinental Exchange, had invested two billion at a nine billion dollar post or somewhere in that range.”

“I think, you know, the interesting thing about those businesses is if you look at the volume, and I didn't check, I think I checked, it's still 70, 80% sports betting, right?”

“Nexar and Sinclair's affiliates, they decided to not air it, and that was 60% of the market, so interesting, polymarket. Had Jimmy Kimmel canceled by September 30th. It was nearly 80% after Kimmel was suspended last week, but that's plummeted to one percent si…”

“Gambling will always happen, will always be good as long as it's legal. So people, it's a vice. It's a vice investment. People like to speculate and make money off of it.”

“I think it's a great category because it's entertainment. You already have evidence from several of these that the consumer eyeballs, you know, are really there. You have like a well-driven business model for some of these that really works for other industrie…”

“And it sounds crazy today, but I guarantee if you put it on Polymarket, there will be a date when this happens.”

“Google is still the polymarket, which company has the best AI model end of 2025. So December 31st, there's been one and a half million in volume, and Google is still sitting comfortably at 46% chance of being at the Top of LM arena at the end of the year.”

“There's a polymarket today on whether he'll be out by the end of next week. Ah, odds are currently sitting around 38%.”

“One month ago, Cuomo was at 93%. Zoran had a six percent chance.”

“Bombing of the nuclear facility did not push down the market odds of Iran possessing a nuclear weapon in twenty-twenty-five. In fact, it's at the highest level of the day.”

“The Fordow nuclear facility destroyed by before July. Poly market is only sitting at a 32% chance still on four million in volume.”

“Yeah, it's at a one percent chance. As of today, so.”

“Poly market showing an 84% chance of less than fifty billion being cut in 2025.”

“So Polymarket, which is built on a blockchain, facilitated, I think, close to three billion dollars on the U.S. Presidential election.”

“After the results started coming in from the seven swing states, Poly market reached 95% probability on each of those seven states, in some cases, many, many hours or a day or two ahead of when the Associated Press called the race.”

“So one is Polymarket is doing about, call it, five hundred million to a billion dollars a month of volume across its markets. And this is across roughly 50 to 75,000 active wallets.”

“Polymarket.com in November was one of the hundred most popular websites in the world. Had about two X the website traffic as Coinbase.com.”

“I created a poly market on GDP. Annualized GDP growth in Q three of this year being below five, negative five percent.”