Polymarket

17 statements across 13 episodes · 7 bullish · 2 bearish · 2 people on the record · first statement Oct 24, 2024 by John Coogan · said 223 times in 61 episodes since 2024 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by John Coogan (91), Jordi Hays (28), Bridget Harris (3), Sam Altman (1), Preston Holland (1), Chris Dixon (1), Aiden Smith (1)

tap a year for its mentions
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005201040202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 8 mentions in 5 episodes 2 per episode
2025 77 mentions in 39 episodes 2 per episode
2024 138 mentions in 17 episodes 8 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Polymarket, oldest first

Oct 24, 2024 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Polymarket holds around $1B in US presidential election liquidity
“There's like a billion dollars of liquidity in the election right now.”
John Coogan Oct 24, 2024 ▶ 34:41 Crypto is Back Baby (ep5)
Oct 24, 2024 negative
Disclosure
Hays: Passed on early investments in Bridge and Polymarket
“I talked with Zach within six months of him incorporating Bridge, didn't invest. I met Shane from Polymarket, like we would DM back in like, 20, 21, and I didn't go back up the Brinks truck.”
Jordi Hays Oct 24, 2024 ▶ 1:15:19 Crypto is Back Baby (ep5)
Nov 6, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Startup Prediction Markets Will Severely Lack Liquidity for Series A Companies
“And so I could imagine this, but for a lot of startups, like the liquidity is just not going to be there because there just aren't going to be that many people that care about some series A company that like is got some VC platform teams have entire”
John Coogan Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 2:40:56 Trump's Secret Career (ep7)
Nov 12, 2024 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Coogan: 2028 election will pit JD Vance against AOC or Buttigieg
“And so my bet that I would put on Polymarket right now is that The twenty-twenty-eight election is between JD Vance and AOC, or JD Vance and Buttigieg, because AOC and Buttigieg both can actually sit and be real people for several hours, and AOC's done it with…”
John Coogan Nov 12, 2024 ▶ 2:30:59 Inside JD Vance's Portfolio (ep8)
Nov 12, 2024 positive
Insight
Coogan: Polymarket optimizes for accurate prices while TV news optimizes for watch time
“If you're CNN, you are incentivized to sell ads and get Watch time and keep people watching. And if you're polymarket, you're incentivized for liquidity and providing correct prices. And so it's just a very different like incentive structure.”
John Coogan Nov 12, 2024 ▶ 1:35:14 Inside JD Vance's Portfolio (ep8)
Nov 14, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Polymarket captured 80% to 90% of 2024 election betting liquidity
“I think they got like, 80%, 90% liquidity on, around the election. Just complete power law outcome.”
John Coogan Nov 14, 2024 ▶ 40:59 Low T levels at Y-Combinator (ep9)
Nov 16, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Hayes: Kalshi burned $1M daily on Facebook ads to catch Polymarket
“So Cal, she was spending a million dollars a day on Facebook. Just to get into the charts. Polymarket had a lot more organic adoption and organic media.”
Jordi Hays Nov 16, 2024 ▶ 1:42:45 What is the TRUMP BUBBLE? (ep11)
Nov 19, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Coogan: Tech industry is entering the golden age for crypto products
“We are truly entering the golden age for crypto products. Couldn't agree more. We're seeing this with Polymarket.”
John Coogan Nov 19, 2024 ▶ 3:06:58 Who's Getting Rich Off Ozempic? (e12)
Nov 23, 2024 positive
Opinion
Betting on Which Startup Becomes Most Valuable Is a Great Polymarket Use Case
“This is a good use case for Polymarket. You should be able to bet on what is the most, like, what's going to be like the most valuable company.”
Jordi Hays Nov 23, 2024 ▶ 2:12:06 FACT CHECKERS vs. tech article (ep14)
Jan 9, 2025 positive
Opinion
Coogan: Wildfire prediction markets provide valuable public information
“I think it's actually still valuable to know, okay, I shouldn't expect the fire to be put out”
John Coogan Jan 9, 2025 ▶ 1:38:52 Can This Man Save Los Angeles? (Rick Caruso)
Jan 9, 2025
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Polymarket gives Palisades fire containment a 1% chance by Friday
“The poly market on will the Palisades fire be contained by Friday. It's down at like one percent.”
John Coogan Jan 9, 2025 ▶ 1:38:00 Can This Man Save Los Angeles? (Rick Caruso)
May 31, 2025
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Hays: Polymarket Gives 1% Odds on Tesla Naming New CEO
“Yeah, it's at a one percent chance. As of today, so.”
Jordi Hays May 31, 2025 ▶ 3:00 Weekend Special: Elon Recap, Balaji, Chris Dixon, Brian Armstrong, Crypto Day + Thiel Fellows
Jun 28, 2025
Assertion Supported
Hays: Polymarket puts only a 32% chance on Fordow being destroyed before July
“The Fordow nuclear facility destroyed by before July. Poly market is only sitting at a 32% chance still on four million in volume.”
Jordi Hays Jun 28, 2025 ▶ 45:04 Weekly Recap: Tesla Robotaxi, Mr. Beast's AI Tool, Yacine, The Social Network 2, Neuralink Update
Jun 28, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Polymarket odds of Iran getting a 2025 nuke hit daily high after strikes
“Bombing of the nuclear facility did not push down the market odds of Iran possessing a nuclear weapon in twenty-twenty-five. In fact, it's at the highest level of the day.”
John Coogan Jun 28, 2025 ▶ 44:44 Weekly Recap: Tesla Robotaxi, Mr. Beast's AI Tool, Yacine, The Social Network 2, Neuralink Update
Jul 19, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Polymarket Odds of Astronomer CEO Ouster Sit at 38%
“There's a polymarket today on whether he'll be out by the end of next week. Ah, odds are currently sitting around 38%.”
Jordi Hays Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 5:21 Weekly Recap: CEO Affair at Coldplay Concert, Elon Musk's AI Girlfriend, Cognition Acquires Windsurf
Jul 26, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Polymarket Gives Google 46% Odds for Top AI Model by Year-End
“Google is still the polymarket, which company has the best AI model end of 2025. So December 31st, there's been one and a half million in volume, and Google is still sitting comfortably at 46% chance of being at the Top of LM arena at the end of the year.”
Jordi Hays Jul 26, 2025 ▶ 1:11:30 Weekly Recap: Casey Neistat, OpenAI Cracks Math, The Future of ChatGPT, Apple x F1, Intel Layoffs
Jun 27, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Zuckerberg Directed Meta to Build Prediction Market App 'Arena'
“Zuckerberg directed Meta to build a prediction markets app, which is a wild shift. The experimental app internally called Arena would be independent of Facebook and Instagram. It could compete for attention with Polymarket and Kalshi, the biggest prediction ma…”
John Coogan Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 18:48 Shifts In The Creator Economy, Kylie Jenner x Meta, GPT 5.6 Limited Release | Diet TBPN
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