Polymarket

13 statements across 11 episodes · 5 bullish · 3 bearish · 9 people on the record · first statement Aug 12, 2024 by Shaun Maguire · said 55 times in 24 episodes since 2023 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Harry Stebbings (31), Jason Lemkin (9), Rory O'Driscoll (3), Shaun Maguire (2), Vlad Tenev (1), Tarek Mansour (1), Paul Erlang (1), Nick Tomaino (1)

tap a year for its mentions
00151030202023202420252026episodesmentions
010202023202420252026episodes it came up in
002.5105202023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 24 mentions in 16 episodes 2 per episode
2025 28 mentions in 6 episodes 5 per episode
2024 2 mentions in 1 episode
2023 1 mention in 1 episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Polymarket, oldest first

Aug 12, 2024 negative
Opinion
Maguire: Polymarket odds fail to price in nation-state election interference
“I don't even think the polymarket odds or any of the odds are that reflective, because I don't think that they price in Like, nation state activity or cheating Effectively.”
Shaun Maguire Aug 12, 2024 ▶ 28:14 Shaun Maguire: Why Iran is the World's Greatest Evil & Trump is the Only Hope for Peace | E1189 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 9, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: Sports betting accounts for 70%-80% of prediction market volume
“I think, you know, the interesting thing about those businesses is if you look at the volume, and I didn't check, I think I checked, it's still 70, 80% sports betting, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Oct 9, 2025 ▶ 1:24:14 OpenAI's Multi-Billion Deal with AMD & Polymarket, Vercel and Supabase Raise Mega Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 16, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: 90% of Prediction Market Business Is Sports Betting
“This is two non-sports betting companies who are doing quote prediction markets where all we talk about is the 10% of the revenue that's political, and 90% of their business is sports betting, but we're not calling it that, and they're just killing it because …”
Rory O'Driscoll Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 49:36 Thinking Machines Co-Founder Joins Meta for $3.5BN, Industry Venture's $665M Acquisition · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 16, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Ehrenberg: Polymarket and Kalshi Are Pure Regulatory Arbitrage Plays
“This is the purest regulatory arbitrage play of all time. Okay. If you can look at the cumulative market cap of regulated sports betting and look at how it has dropped in response to the rise of Polymarket and Calci, who are not subject to the same rules and r…”
Roger Ehrenberg Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 47:05 Thinking Machines Co-Founder Joins Meta for $3.5BN, Industry Venture's $665M Acquisition · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 6, 2025 positive
Opinion
Lemkin: Kalshi is a safer long-term bet than Polymarket
“So based on my limited knowledge, I'm going Kalshi because I feel like it is a safer long-term bet than someone that is writing the current political vibes, which are all in favor of everything here. It just could, it was a lot different a couple of years ago,…”
Jason Lemkin Nov 6, 2025 ▶ 1:16:08 Is a $4.5BN Exit Enough in VC? & Harvey Raises $150M & Why Google is a Buy and Amazon is a Sell · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 8, 2025 positive
What-if
Mansour: Kalshi and Polymarket pushed each other's product and marketing harder
“Without Polymarket, we wouldn't have I think like, Pushed our marketing and pushed our product as hard. And without us, they wouldn't have pushed their marketing and their product.”
Tarek Mansour Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 12:05 Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on Raising $1BN, CNN and CNBC Deals & the Polymarket Feud · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Polymarket pricing gave SpaceX a 50-60% chance at $2T IPO
“Polymarket said the probability of SpaceX being worth two trillion dollars on the IPO went up to 50, 60%, right? From a lower number, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 26, 2026 ▶ 17:12 Why You Need a $1B Fund To Do Series A | SpaceX at $2TRN & Data Centers in Space | Groq's $20BN Deal · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 18, 2026 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Randle: Prediction markets show 70% odds of Tesla-SpaceX merger in two years
“If you look at the poly market Calci odds on a Tesla SpaceX merger, again, you know, not, not that those markets are so big that they're that indicative, but I think the probability that they have on there is something like 70% in the next two years or somethi…”
Everett Randle Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 19:07 Anthropic's Fable Banned by US Government | Wix & Adobe Hit All-Time Lows | Mistral Raising at $20BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 27, 2026 positive
Disclosure
FOMO Would Build Prediction Markets on Polymarket or Kalshi
“We haven't integrated prediction markets yet, and I'm not sure exactly where it fits in on our roadmap. I think it's very interesting there. I think our first version of the product would be built on something like a poly market in Calci.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 7:02 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 2, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Intercontinental Exchange owns ~20% stake in Polymarket
“ICE as in the owners of NASDAQ, the, I think, Intercontinental Exchange has a big ownership stake in Polymarket. Why that's relevant is that's a company that runs ICE that runs stock trading and, you know, real financial markets taking a significant, I think, …”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 40:22 Coinbase Cuts AI Spend by 50% | Kalshi's $40B Valuation & Impending IPO | The Year for SaaS Roll-Ups · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 2, 2026 negative
Insight
O'Driscoll: Political prediction markets are too small to build $100B companies
“I don't think predicting who's the next Who's going to win the general election in the UK or who's going to be the next president in the US is a huge, enormous, ginormous business. I love it. I find it fun. It's actually the most interesting part of Polymarket…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 41:14 Coinbase Cuts AI Spend by 50% | Kalshi's $40B Valuation & Impending IPO | The Year for SaaS Roll-Ups · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2026 positive
Insight
Park: Simile Differentiates From Prediction Markets by Modeling Causality
“Where I see similarly come in is we are a company that is not just interested in what's going to happen, but more on how it's going to happen and why.”
Joon Sung Park Jul 31, 2026 ▶ 31:49 The AI Company Simulating the Entire Economy | Simile Co-founder & CEO, Joon Sung Park
Aug 7, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Frankel: Kalshi and Polymarket are essentially gambling like DraftKings
“It has to be, right? Like it, I mean, if you look at like Kelsey and Polymarket, what's the difference there between DraftKings and Betway? And they seem very similar to me.”
David Frankel Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 1:25:40 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 1,200 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.